Is Germany’s Influence on Austria Waning?
This study analyzes the connection between business cycle fluctuations in Germany and Austria as well as the transmission of German shocks to Austria. Compared to Austria’s links with other countries, the ties between Austria and Germany have loosened in relative terms in recent years; in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), however, a strong and steady increase has been recorded. Static and dynamic correlation measures point to a consistently high level of co-movement between Austria and Germany. While the Austrian economy lagged behind the German economy by one quarter in the 1970s, it now leads the German economy by one quarter. The Austrian economy’s reaction to German shocks equals 0.4 times the German reaction. Monetary policy shocks are transmitted with the greatest impact, while supply and demand shocks trigger a far less pronounced reaction in Austria. Over time, monetary policy shocks have gained slightly in importance, while German demand shocks have become less important. On average across shocks, the transmission effect shows a marginal weakening. The relative importance of Germany and the international environment in explaining the forecast error for Austrian GDP has increased somewhat over time, whereas the domestic contribution to the forecast error has declined. On the whole, it is not possible to identify a decline in Germany’s importance for the Austrian economy.
Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria|
Phone: +43/1/404 20 7405
Fax: +43/1/404 20 7499
Web page: http://www.oenb.at
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Documentation Management and Communications Services, Otto-Wagner Platz 3, A-1090 Vienna, Austria|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fabio Canova, 2003.
"The transmission of US shocks to Latin America,"
Economics Working Papers
925, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2004.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the business cycle changed?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 9-56.
- Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999.
"Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?,"
Handbook of Macroeconomics,
in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Fabio Canova & Gianni de Nicoló, 1999.
"On the sources of business cycles in the G-7,"
Economics Working Papers
459, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2000.
- Eduard HOCHREITER & Georg WINCKLER, 1993.
"The Advantages of Tying Austria's Hands: The Success of the Hard Currency Strategy,"
Vienna Economics Papers
vie9307, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
- Hochreiter, Eduard & Winckler, Georg, 1995. "The advantages of tying Austria's hands: The success of the hard currency strategy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 83-111, March.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Frank Westermann, 1999. "An analysis of German effects on the Austrian business cycle," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 135(3), pages 522-531, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:onb:oenbmp:y:2006:i:2:b:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudia Kwapil)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.