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How financially vulnerable are CESEE households? An Austrian perspective on its neighbors

Author

Listed:
  • Pirmin Fessler

    () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Analysis Division)

  • Emanuel List

    () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Analysis Division)

  • Teresa Messner

    () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Foreign Research Division)

Abstract

We employ newly available microdata to analyze household indebtedness and financial vulnerability in selected CESEE countries. The new 2014/15 wave of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) covers Slovenia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Poland and Slovakia. Austrian banks have significant exposure to households in many CESEE countries, and the number of nonperforming loans is rather high in some of them. Our goal is to provide a clear picture of household vulnerability and its potential impact on financial stability and thus to allow for thinking in evidence-based scenarios. We focus on the joint distribution of debt and collateral and add several measures of financial vulnerability, such as loan-to-value, debt-to-income and debt service-to-income ratios. In addition, we employ econometric methods from the decomposition and policy evaluation literature to decompose differences in vulnerability measures between countries into two parts: one that is attributable to different borrower characteristics and another that is down to other external factors, such as differences in banks’ behavior across countries. Our results show that households are particularly vulnerable in Latvia and Hungary and that variations in household composition have different effects on vulnerability across the countries covered.

Suggested Citation

  • Pirmin Fessler & Emanuel List & Teresa Messner, 2017. "How financially vulnerable are CESEE households? An Austrian perspective on its neighbors," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 58-79.
  • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2017:i:2:b:1
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    File URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:66356a63-b720-4272-8f11-f51879e91386/feei_2017_q2_studies_fessler_list_messner.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. DiNardo, John & Fortin, Nicole M & Lemieux, Thomas, 1996. "Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages, 1973-1992: A Semiparametric Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1001-1044, September.
    2. Olympia Bover & Jose Maria Casado & Sonia Costa & Philip Du Caju & Yvonne McCarthy & Eva Sierminska & Panagiota Tzamourani & Ernesto Villanueva & Tibor Zavadil, 2016. "The Distribution of Debt across Euro-Area Countries: The Role of Individual Characteristics, Institutions, and Credit Conditions," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(2), pages 71-128, June.
    3. Nicolas Albacete & Pirmin Fessler & Martin Schürz, 2012. "Risk Buffer Profiles of Foreign Currency Mortgage Holders," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 23, pages 58-71.
    4. Nicolas Albacete & Judith Eidenberger & Gerald Krenn & Peter Lindner & Michael Sigmund, 2014. "Risk-Bearing Capacity of Households – Linking Micro-Level Data to the Macroprudential Toolkit," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 27, pages 95-110.
    5. Nicolas Albacete & Peter Lindner, 2015. "Foreign currency borrowers in Austria – evidence from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 29, pages 93-109.
    6. Nicolas Albacete & Pirmin Fessler, 2010. "Stress Testing Austrian Households," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 19, pages 72-91.
    7. Nicolas Albacete & Pirmin Fessler & Peter Lindner, 2016. "The distribution of residential property price changes across homeowners and its implications for financial stability in Austria," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 31, pages 62-81.
    8. Nicolas Albacete & Peter Lindner, 2013. "Household Vulnerability in Austria – A Microeconomic Analysis Based on the Household Finance and Consumption Survey," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 25, pages 57-73.
    9. Elisabeth Beckmann, 2017. "How does foreign currency debt relief affect households’ loan demand? Evidence from the OeNB Euro Survey in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 8-32.
    10. Fessler, Pirmin & Lindner, Peter & Segalla, Esther, 2014. "Net wealth across the euro area - why household structure matters and how to control for it," Working Paper Series 1663, European Central Bank.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    household-specific property prices; mortgages; banking sector; Austria;

    JEL classification:

    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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