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The Robust Relationship Between Taxes and U.S. State Income Growth

Listed author(s):
  • Reed, W. Robert

I estimate the relationship between taxes and income growth using data from 1970–1999 and the forty–eight continental U.S. states. I find that taxes used to fund general expenditures are associated with significant, negative effects on income growth. This finding is generally robust across alternative variable specifications, alternative estimation procedures, alternative ways of dividing the data into "five–year" periods, and across different time periods and Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) regions, though state–specific estimates vary widely. I also provide an explanation for why previous research has had difficulty identifying this "robust" relationship.

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Article provided by National Tax Association in its journal National Tax Journal.

Volume (Year): 61 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 57-80

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Handle: RePEc:ntj:journl:v:61:y:2008:i:1:p:57-80
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  6. Helms, L Jay, 1985. "The Effect of State and Local Taxes on Economic Growth: A Time Series-Cross Section Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 574-582, November.
  7. Poterba, James M, 1994. "State Responses to Fiscal Crises: The Effects of Budgetary Institutions and Politics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(4), pages 799-821, August.
  8. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
  9. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle, December.
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  11. Yamarik, Steven, 2000. "Can tax policy help explain state-level macroeconomic growth?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 211-215, August.
  12. Crain, W Mark & Lee, Katherine J, 1999. "Economic Growth Regressions for the American States: A Sensitivity Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(2), pages 242-257, April.
  13. Gasper A. Garofalo & Steven Yamarik, 2002. "Regional Convergence: Evidence From A New State-By-State Capital Stock Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 316-323, May.
  14. Mofidi, Alaeddin & Stone, Joe A, 1990. "Do State and Local Taxes Affect Economic Growth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(4), pages 686-691, November.
  15. Mitchener, Kris James & McLean, Ian W, 2003. "The Productivity of US States since 1880," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 73-114, March.
  16. Andrea Bassanini & Stefano Scarpetta & Philip Hemmings, 2001. "Economic Growth: The Role of Policies and Institutions: Panel Data. Evidence from OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 283, OECD Publishing.
  17. Bania, Neil & Gray, Jo Anna & Stone, Joe A., 2007. "Growth, Taxes, and Government Expenditures: Growth Hills for U.S. States," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 60(2), pages 193-204, June.
  18. Mullen, John K. & Williams, Martin, 1994. "Marginal tax rates and state economic growth," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 687-705, December.
  19. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
  20. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman, 1996. "The Role Of Industry Structure, Costs, And Economic Spillovers In Determining State Employment Growth Rates," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 26(3), pages 235-264, Winter.
  21. Leamer, Edward E, 1985. "Sensitivity Analyses Would Help," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 308-313, June.
  22. Howard Chernick, 1997. "Tax Progressivity and State Economic Performance," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 11(3), pages 249-267, August.
  23. Shioji, Etsuro, 2001. "Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Convergence Approach," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 205-227, September.
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