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Retirement Effects of Proposals by the President's Commission to Strengthen Social Security

Author

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  • Gustman, Alan L.
  • Steinmeier, Thomas L.

Abstract

The effects on retirement of proposals by the President's Commission to Strengthen Social Security are simulated using an econometric model of retirement and saving. In the absence of any policy reforms, and holding other market adjustments constant, increases in real wages are predicted to increase retirement from full time work at age 62 by 8.7 percentage points over the next 70 years. However, two leading proposals put forth by the Commission, model 2 and model 3, will offset almost half this trend, reducing retirement from full–time work at age 62 by roughly five and three percentage points, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustman, Alan L. & Steinmeier, Thomas L., 2005. "Retirement Effects of Proposals by the President's Commission to Strengthen Social Security," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 58(1), pages 27-49, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:ntj:journl:v:58:y:2005:i:1:p:27-49
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eric French, 2005. "The Effects of Health, Wealth, and Wages on Labour Supply and Retirement Behaviour," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(2), pages 395-427.
    2. Roger H. Gordon & Alan S. Blinder, 1980. "Market wages, reservation wages, and retirement decisions," NBER Chapters,in: Econometric Studies in Public Finance, pages 277-308 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Lumsdaine, Robin L. & Mitchell, Olivia S., 1999. "New developments in the economic analysis of retirement," Handbook of Labor Economics,in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 49, pages 3261-3307 Elsevier.
    4. Gustman, Alan L & Steinmeier, Thomas L, 1985. "The 1983 Social Security Reforms and Labor Supply Adjustments of Older Individuals in the Long Run," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(2), pages 237-253, April.
    5. Gustman, Alan L. & Steinmeier, Thomas L., 2005. "The social security early entitlement age in a structural model of retirement and wealth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2-3), pages 441-463, February.
    6. Courtney Coile & Jonathan Gruber, 2000. "Social Security and Retirement," NBER Working Papers 7830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 2002. "The New Social Security Commission Personal Accounts: Where is the Investment Principal?," Working Papers wp031, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 2004. "How to Evaluate the Effects of Social Security Policies on Retirement and Saving When Firm Policies Affect the Opportunities Facing Older Individuals," Working Papers wp078, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    2. Amy Rehder Harris & John Sabelhaus & Almudena Sevilla-Sanz, 2005. "Behavioral Effects of Social Security Reform in a Dynamic Micro-Simulation with Life-Cycle Agents: Working Paper 2005-06," Working Papers 16494, Congressional Budget Office.
    3. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steimeier, 2004. "The Social Security Retirement Earning Test,Retirement and Benefit Claiming," Working Papers wp090, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    4. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 2004. "Minimum Hours Constraints, Job Requirements and Retirement," NBER Working Papers 10876, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Engelhardt, Gary V. & Kumar, Anil, 2005. "Social security personal-account participation with government matching," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(02), pages 155-179, July.
    6. Gaobo Pang & University of Maryland, 2006. "Tax-Deferred Savings and Early Retirement," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 31, Society for Computational Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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