IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nbp/nbpbik/v53y2022i3p325-340.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Rising public debt and the short-term interest rates: Is there a link?

Author

Listed:
  • Leon Podkaminer

    (Narodowy Bank Polski)

Abstract

ARDL-Bounds models for the European countries, the USA and Japan suggest that increasing public debts may have been of minor importance as determinants of short-term real interest rates. Moreover, the effects in question appear to be negative almost everywhere. Rising public debts seem to have lowered the short-term interest rates, if only rather marginally in most cases. The lingering opinion that fiscal deficits drive up interest rates finds no convincing confirmation in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Leon Podkaminer, 2022. "Rising public debt and the short-term interest rates: Is there a link?," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 53(3), pages 325-340.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:53:y:2022:i:3:p:325-340
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://bankikredyt.nbp.pl/content/2022/03/bik_03_2022_03.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Herndon & Michael Ash & Robert Pollin, 2014. "Does high public debt consistently stifle economic growth? A critique of Reinhart and Rogoff," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 257-279.
    2. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    5. Leanne Ussher, 1998. "Do Budget Deficits Raise Interest Rates? A Survey of the Empirical Literature," Working Papers 0005 Classification- JEL:, Department of Economics, Queens College of the City University of New York.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hubert Gabrisch & Doris Hanzl-Weiss & Esther Linton-Kubelka & Leon Podkaminer & Roman Stöllinger, 2022. "Monthly Report No. 12/2022," wiiw Monthly Reports 2022-12, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    2. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2014. "Transmission of the debt crisis: From EU15 to USA or vice versa? A GVAR approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 115-132.
    3. Alessandro Caiani & Ermanno Catullo & Mauro Gallegati, 2018. "The effects of fiscal targets in a monetary union: a multi-country agent-based stock flow consistent model," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 27(6), pages 1123-1154.
    4. De Vita, Glauco & Trachanas, Emmanouil & Luo, Yun, 2018. "Revisiting the bi-directional causality between debt and growth: Evidence from linear and nonlinear tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 55-74.
    5. P. B. Zondi & Z. Robinson, 2021. "The Relationship between Government Debt and Economic Growth in South Africa with Specific Reference to Eskom," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 2(40), pages 17-34, November.
    6. Paulo André Camuri & Frederico G. Jayme Jr. & Ana Maria Hermeto, 2015. "Fiscal consolidation in developed and emerging economies [Fiscal consolidation in developed and emerging economies]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 25(spe), pages 835-861, December.
    7. Branimir Jovanovic, 2017. "Growth forecast errors and government investment and consumption multipliers," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 83-107, January.
    8. Achim Truger, 2013. "Austerity in the euro area: the sad state of economic policy in Germany and the EU," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 10(2), pages 158-174.
    9. Vassilis Monastiriotis, 2014. "(When) Does Austerity Work? On the Conditional Link between Fiscal Austerity and Debt Sustainability," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 8(1), pages 71-92, June.
    10. Stefano di Bucchianico, 2019. "A bit of Keynesian debt-to-GDP arithmetic for deficit-capped countries," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 13(1), pages 55-83, June.
    11. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2015. "“Short-run and long-run effects of public debt on economic performance: Evidence from EMU countries”," IREA Working Papers 201522, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Sep 2015.
    12. Susanne Neheider & Ludger Schuknecht, 2013. "Wachstum und Konsolidierung: ein Gegensatz?: zur Diskussion um "Austeritätspolitik" und "Wachstumsfalle"," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 82(2), pages 25-37.
    13. Mohd Yousuf Malik & M. K. Agarwal, 2023. "Impact of public debt on economic growth: a case study of Jammu and Kashmir," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(7), pages 1-20, July.
    14. Alberto Botta & Daniele Tori, 2015. "A critique to the expansionary austerity: Theoretical weaknesses and empirical counter evidence," Working Papers PKWP1511, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    15. Timothy P. Sharpe, 2013. "Institutional arrangements and public debt threshold limits," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(6), pages 707-728, November.
    16. C Alexiou & J G Nellis, 2016. "A post-mortem of austerity: the Greek experience," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 21(2), pages 1-32, September.
    17. Attard, Juergen, 2019. "Public Debt and Economic Growth nexus: A Dynamic Panel ARDL approach," MPRA Paper 96023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Charles, Sébastien, 2019. "Le multiplicateur budgétaire endogène au cycle dans un modèle macroéconomique post-keynésien [The state-dependent fiscal Multiplier in a Post-Keynesian Macroeconomic Model]," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 26.
    19. Ahmed MAAROUFI & Ghazi BOULILA, 2021. "Non-linear effect of public debt on economic growth: The case of Tunisia," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(629), W), pages 121-134, Winter.
    20. Greppmair, Stefan & Jank, Stephan & Smajlbegovic, Esad, 2023. "On the importance of fiscal space: Evidence from short sellers during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    crowding out; public debt; short-term interest rates; ARDL-B;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:53:y:2022:i:3:p:325-340. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wojciech Burjanek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nbpgvpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.