IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Do Budget Deficits Raise Interest Rates? A Survey of the Empirical Literature

  • Leanne Ussher

    ()

    (Department of Economics and BBA, Queens College of the City University of New York)

Do government budget deficits raise interest rates and thus “crowd out” private investment? This question has been the topic of a multitude of empirical studies, which proposed to evaluate the impact of financing government activity. We survey the theory and some empirical results. Traditional theories either support deficits having a positive or a neutral effect on interest rates. Various tests of these propositions yield diverse results, and one can find all conclusions – that deficits raise, decrease or do not effect interest rates. Also, there is little attempt to ground their assumption that rising interest rates result in a crowding out of private borrowing and investment. The problem with many of the empirical studies begins with their narrow theoretical underpinnings which are driven by assumptions of resource constraints, exogenous money supply, or government budget constraints. Alternatively, models that derive their economics from the demand side determining supply, have a transmission mechanisms missing from traditional models that may explain econometric testing incongruities. Such models take account of multi-asset markets, investment accelerators and consider the alternative causality - interest rates to budget deficits. They emphasize financial market instruments, investor behavior, and the relationship between the treasury and the central bank in determining fiscal and monetary policy. As a result, such models provide a richer understanding to the interaction between deficits and interest rates in their institutional setting.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.qc-econ-bba.org/RePEc/pdf/0005.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Department of Economics, Queens College of the City University of New York in its series Working Papers with number 0005 Classification- JEL:.

as
in new window

Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Apr 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:quc:wpaper:0005
Contact details of provider: Postal: 300 Powdermaker Hall, 65-30 Kissena Blvd., Flushing New York 11367
Phone: 718-997-5440
Fax: 718-997-5466
Web page: http://www.qc-econ-bba.org

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Laurence Ball & Douglas W. Elmendorf & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "The Deficit Gamble," NBER Working Papers 5015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Black, Robert A. & Gilmore, Claire G., 1990. "Crowding Out during Britain's Industrial Revolution," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(01), pages 109-131, March.
  3. Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Government financing decisions and asset returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 325-352.
  4. Evans, Paul & Karras, Georgios, 1994. "Are Government Activities Productive? Evidence from a Panel of U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 1-11, February.
  5. Tobin, James, 1982. "Money and Finance in the Macroeconomic Process," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 171-204, May.
  6. Mayer, Thomas, 1984. "The government budget constraint and standard macrotheory," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 371-379, May.
  7. Reid, Bradford G, 1985. "Aggregate Consumption and Deficit Financing: An Attempt to Separate Permanent from Transitory Effects," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 23(3), pages 475-86, July.
  8. Boothe, Paul M. & Reid, Bradford G., 1989. "Asset returns and government budgets in a small open economy : Empirical evidence for Canada," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 65-77, January.
  9. Seater, John J. & Mariano, Roberto S., 1985. "New tests of the life cycle and tax discounting hypotheses," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 195-215, March.
  10. Evans, Paul, 1984. "The Effects on Output of Money Growth and Interest Rate Volatility in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 204-22, April.
  11. Roley, V Vance, 1979. "A Theory of Federal Debt Management," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(5), pages 915-26, December.
  12. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1990. "World Real Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 3317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1990. "World Real Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 15-74 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Mascaro, Angelo & Meltzer, Allan H., 1983. "Long- and short-term interest rates in a risky world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 485-518, November.
  14. Cebula, Richard, 1990. "A Note on Federal Budget Deficits and the Term Structure of Real Interest Rates in the United States," MPRA Paper 50238, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Barth, James R & Russek, Frank S & Wang, George H K, 1986. "A Time Series Analysis of the Relationship between the Capital Stock and Federal Debt: A Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(4), pages 527-38, November.
  16. McCallum, Bennett T, 1984. "Are Bond-Financed Deficits Inflationary? A Ricardian Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(1), pages 123-35, February.
  17. Yotsuzuka, Toshiki, 1987. "Ricardian equivalence in the presence of capital market imperfections," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 411-436, September.
  18. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
  19. Douglas W. Elmendorf & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1998. "Government Debt," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1820, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    • Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Gregory Mankiw, N., 1999. "Government debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 25, pages 1615-1669 Elsevier.
  20. Miles S. Kimball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1988. "Precautionary Saving and the Timing of Taxes," NBER Working Papers 2680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Yellen, Janet L, 1989. "Symposium on the Budget Deficit," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 17-21, Spring.
  22. Raynold, Prosper, 1994. "The impact of government deficits when credit markets are imperfect: Evidence from the interwar period," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 55-76.
  23. Seater, John J, 1993. "Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 142-90, March.
  24. Kolluri, Bharat R. & Giannaros, Demetrios S., 1987. "Budget deficits and short-term real interest rate forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 109-109.
  25. Leiderman, Leonardo & Razin, Assaf, 1988. "Testing Ricardian Neutrality with an Intertemporal Stochastic Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(1), pages 1-21, February.
  26. Allen, Stuart D. & Smith, Michael D., 1983. "Government borrowing and monetary accommodation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 605-616, November.
  27. Seater, John J., 1985. "Does government debt matter? A review," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-131, July.
  28. Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-26, Sept./Oct.
  29. Christ, Carl F, 1979. "On Fiscal and Monetary Policies and the Government Budget Restraint," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 526-38, September.
  30. Blinder, Alan S. & Solow, Robert M., 1973. "Does fiscal policy matter?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 319-337.
  31. Fisher, W.H. & Turnovsky, S.J., 1991. "Fiscal Policy and the term Structure of Interest Rates: An Intertemporal Optimizing Analysis," Working Papers 91-20, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  32. Boskin, Michael J, 1982. "Federal Government Deficits: Some Myths and Realities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(2), pages 296-303, May.
  33. Plosser, Charles I., 1987. "Fiscal policy and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 343-367, September.
  34. Kim, Sun-Young & Lombra, Raymond E., 1989. "Why the empirical relationship between deficits and interest rates appears so fragile," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 241-251, August.
  35. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
  36. Robert J. Barro, 1986. "Government Spending, Interest Rates, Prices, and Budget Deficits in the United Kingdom, 1701-1918," NBER Working Papers 2005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Tabellini, Guido & La Via, Vincenzo, 1989. "Money, Deficit and Public Debt in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 15-25, February.
  38. David Aschauer, 1988. "Does public capital crowd out private capital?," Staff Memoranda 88-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  39. Blejer, Mario I & Cheasty, Adrienne, 1991. "The Measurement of Fiscal Deficits: Analytical and Methodological Issues," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 1644-78, December.
  40. William C. Brainard & James Tobin, 1968. "Pitfalls in Financial Model-Building," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 244, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  41. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1981. "Output, the Stock Market, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(1), pages 132-43, March.
  42. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1987. "Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 263-316 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. Robert B. Barsky & N. Gregory Mankiw & Stephen P. Zeldes, 1987. "Ricardian Consumers With Keynesian Propensities," NBER Working Papers 1400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  44. Hoelscher, Gregory, 1986. "New Evidence on Deficits and Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 1-17, February.
  45. Dwyer, Gerald P, Jr, 1982. "Inflation and Government Deficits," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 20(3), pages 315-29, July.
  46. Chan, Louis Kuo Chi, 1983. "Uncertainty and the neutrality of government financing policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 351-372.
  47. Turnovsky, Stephen J & Miller, Marcus H, 1984. "The Effects of Government Expenditure on the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 16-33, February.
  48. Evans, Paul, 1989. "A Test of Steady-State Government-Debt Neutrality," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(1), pages 39-55, January.
  49. Darrat, Ali F, 1988. "On Fiscal Policy and the Stock Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 353-63, August.
  50. McMillin, W. Douglas, 1986. "Federal deficits and short-term interest rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 403-422.
  51. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1978. "Crowding Out or Crowding In? Economic Consequences of Financing Government Deficits," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 9(3), pages 593-641.
  52. Lee, Bong-Soo, 1991. "Government deficits and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 425-443, June.
  53. Christopher D. Carroll, 1992. "The Buffer-Stock Theory of Saving: Some Macroeconomic Evidence," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(2), pages 61-156.
  54. Beard, Thomas R. & McMillin, W. Douglas, 1991. "The impact of budget deficits in the interwar period," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 239-266.
  55. R. Glenn Hubbard & Kenneth L. Judd, 1986. "Liquidity Constraints, Fiscal Policy, and Consumption," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 17(1), pages 1-60.
  56. Evans, Paul, 1987. "Interest Rates and Expected Future Budget Deficits in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 34-58, February.
  57. Cebula, Richard J. & Belton, Willie G., 1992. "Deficits and Real Interest Rates in the United States: A Note on the Barro Theory versus the Cuckierman-Meltzer Theory of Government Debt and Deficits in a Neo-Ricardian Framework," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 45(3-4), pages 289-295.
  58. Michael Hutchison & David H. Pyle, 1984. "The real interest rate/budget deficit link: international evidence 1973- 82," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Fall, pages 26-35.
  59. Evans, Paul & Karras, Georgios, 1994. "Is government capital productive? Evidence from a panel of seven countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 271-279.
  60. Wachtel, Paul & Young, John, 1987. "Deficit Announcements and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 1007-12, December.
  61. Aschauer, David Alan, 1985. "Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 117-27, March.
  62. Dwyer, Gerald P, Jr, 1985. "Federal Deficits, Interest Rates, and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 655-81, November.
  63. Hamburger, Michael J. & Zwick, Burton, 1981. "Deficits, money and inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 141-150.
  64. Buiter, Willem H., 1977. "`Crowding out' and the effectiveness of fiscal policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 309-328, June.
  65. Robert J. Barro, 1980. "Federal Deficit Policy and the Effects of Public Debt Shocks," NBER Working Papers 0443, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  66. Bernheim, B Douglas, 1989. "A Neoclassical Perspective on Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 55-72, Spring.
  67. Cebula, Richard J, 1991. "Federal Government Budget Deficits and Interest Rates: Reply," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 46(2), pages 331-34.
  68. Hamburger, Michael J. & Zwick, Burton, 1982. "Deficits, money and inflation : Reply," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 279-283.
  69. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I., 1985. "Money, deficits, and inflation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 147-195, January.
  70. Makin, John H, 1983. "Real Interest, Money Surprises, Anticipated Inflation and Fiscal Deficits," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 374-84, August.
  71. R.J. Cebula, 1997. "Government deficit, ex post real long-term interest rates and causality," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 50(202), pages 325-336.
  72. McMillin, W Douglas, 1981. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Policy on the Money Supply: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(2), pages 221-26, May.
  73. Eisner, Robert & Pieper, Paul J, 1986. "A New View of the Federal Debt and Budget Deficits: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1156-57, December.
  74. McMillin, W. Douglas & Beard, Thomas R., 1982. "Deficits, money and inflation : Comment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 273-277.
  75. Aschauer, David Alan, 1988. "The Equilibrium Approach to Fiscal Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(1), pages 41-62, February.
  76. Kormendi, Roger C, 1983. "Government Debt, Government Spending, and Private Sector Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 994-1010, December.
  77. Martin Feldstein, 1980. "Government Deficits and Aggregate Demand," NBER Working Papers 0435, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  78. Niskanen, William A., 1978. "Deficits, government spending, and inflation : What is the evidence?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 591-602, August.
  79. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
  80. Craig S. Hakkio, 1996. "The effects of budget deficit reduction on the exchange rate," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 21-38.
  81. Quigley, Michael Regan & Porter-Hudak, Susan, 1994. "A New Approach in Analyzing the Effect of Deficit Announcements on Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(4), pages 894-902, November.
  82. Dua, Pami & Arora, Harjit K., 1989. "Do expected budget deficits affect household expectations of interest rates?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 551-562.
  83. Becker, Torbjorn, 1997. "An investigation of Ricardian equivalence in a common trends model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 405-431, August.
  84. de Leeuw, Frank & Holloway, Thomas M, 1985. "The Measurement and Significance of the Cyclically Adjusted Federal Budget and Debt," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(2), pages 232-42, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:quc:wpaper:0005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Cara Marshall)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.