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The impact of temporal hydrogen regulation on hydrogen exporters and their domestic energy transition

Author

Listed:
  • Leon Schumm

    (University of Applied Sciences (OTH) Regensburg
    Technische Universität Berlin)

  • Hazem Abdel-Khalek

    (Fraunhofer Research Institution for Energy Infrastructures and Geothermal Systems IEG
    Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources
    Open Energy Transition)

  • Tom Brown

    (Technische Universität Berlin)

  • Falko Ueckerdt

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Michael Sterner

    (University of Applied Sciences (OTH) Regensburg)

  • Maximilian Parzen

    (Open Energy Transition
    Institute for Energy Systems)

  • Davide Fioriti

    (Territory and Construction Engineering)

Abstract

As global demand for green hydrogen rises, potential hydrogen exporters move into the spotlight. While exports can bring countries revenue, large-scale on-grid hydrogen electrolysis for export can profoundly impact domestic energy prices and energy-related emissions. Our investigation explores the interplay of hydrogen exports, domestic energy transition and temporal hydrogen regulation, employing a sector-coupled energy model in Morocco. We find substantial co-benefits of domestic carbon dioxide mitigation and hydrogen exports, whereby exports can reduce market-based costs for domestic electricity consumers while mitigation reduces costs for hydrogen exporters. However, increasing hydrogen exports in a fossil-dominated system can substantially raise market-based costs for domestic electricity consumers, but surprisingly, temporal matching of hydrogen production can lower these costs by up to 31% with minimal impact on exporters. Here, we show that this policy instrument can steer the welfare (re-)distribution between hydrogen exporting firms, hydrogen importers, and domestic electricity consumers and hereby increases acceptance among actors.

Suggested Citation

  • Leon Schumm & Hazem Abdel-Khalek & Tom Brown & Falko Ueckerdt & Michael Sterner & Maximilian Parzen & Davide Fioriti, 2025. "The impact of temporal hydrogen regulation on hydrogen exporters and their domestic energy transition," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-62873-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-62873-w
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