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The atlas of unburnable oil for supply-side climate policies

Author

Listed:
  • Lorenzo Pellegrini

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

  • Murat Arsel

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

  • Gorka Muñoa

    (Universitat de Barcelona
    Universitat de Barcelona)

  • Guillem Rius-Taberner

    (Universitat de Barcelona
    Universitat de Barcelona)

  • Carlos Mena

    (Universidad San Francisco de Quito)

  • Martí Orta-Martínez

    (Universitat de Barcelona
    Universitat de Barcelona)

Abstract

To limit the increase in global mean temperature to 1.5 °C, CO2 emissions must be drastically reduced. Accordingly, approximately 97%, 81%, and 71% of existing coal and conventional gas and oil resources, respectively, need to remain unburned. This article develops an integrated spatial assessment model based on estimates and locations of conventional oil resources and socio-environmental criteria to construct a global atlas of unburnable oil. The results show that biodiversity hotspots, richness centres of endemic species, natural protected areas, urban areas, and the territories of Indigenous Peoples in voluntary isolation coincide with 609 gigabarrels (Gbbl) of conventional oil resources. Since 1524 Gbbl of conventional oil resources are required to be left untapped in order to keep global warming under 1.5 °C, all of the above-mentioned socio-environmentally sensitive areas can be kept entirely off-limits to oil extraction. The model provides spatial guidelines to select unburnable fossil fuels resources while enhancing collateral socio-environmental benefits.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo Pellegrini & Murat Arsel & Gorka Muñoa & Guillem Rius-Taberner & Carlos Mena & Martí Orta-Martínez, 2024. "The atlas of unburnable oil for supply-side climate policies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-46340-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-46340-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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