IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v15y2024i1d10.1038_s41467-023-44403-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Increasing tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific partly driven by warming Tibetan Plateau

Author

Listed:
  • Jing Xu

    (Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences)

  • Ping Zhao

    (Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
    College of Atmospheric Science, Chengdu University of Information Technology)

  • Johnny C. L. Chan

    (School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong
    Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center)

  • Mingyuan Shi

    (National Meteorological Information Center)

  • Chi Yang

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Siyu Zhao

    (University of California, Los Angeles)

  • Ying Xu

    (National Climate Center)

  • Junming Chen

    (Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences)

  • Ling Du

    (Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES) and Physical Oceanography Laboratory; and College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China)

  • Jie Wu

    (Gannan Normal University)

  • Jiaxin Ye

    (Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences)

  • Rui Xing

    (Meteorological Service in Binhai New Area)

  • Huimei Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences)

  • Lu Liu

    (Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences)

Abstract

The increase in intense tropical cyclone (TC) activity across the western North Pacific (WNP) has often been attributed to a warming ocean. However, it is essential to recognize that the tropical WNP region already boasts high temperatures, and a marginal increase in oceanic warmth due to global warming does not exert a significant impact on the potential for TCs to intensify. Here we report that the weakened vertical wind shear is the primary driver behind the escalating trend in TC intensity within the summer monsoon trough of the tropical WNP, while local ocean surface and subsurface thermodynamic factors play a minor role. Through observational diagnoses and numerical simulations, we establish that this weakening of the vertical wind shear is very likely due to the increase in temperature of the Tibetan Plateau. With further warming of the Tibetan Plateau under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario, the projected TCs will likely become stronger.

Suggested Citation

  • Jing Xu & Ping Zhao & Johnny C. L. Chan & Mingyuan Shi & Chi Yang & Siyu Zhao & Ying Xu & Junming Chen & Ling Du & Jie Wu & Jiaxin Ye & Rui Xing & Huimei Wang & Lu Liu, 2024. "Increasing tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific partly driven by warming Tibetan Plateau," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-44403-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44403-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-44403-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-023-44403-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kerry Emanuel, 2005. "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years," Nature, Nature, vol. 436(7051), pages 686-688, August.
    2. A. N. Pettitt, 1979. "A Non‐Parametric Approach to the Change‐Point Problem," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 28(2), pages 126-135, June.
    3. P. Peduzzi & B. Chatenoux & H. Dao & A. De Bono & C. Herold & J. Kossin & F. Mouton & O. Nordbeck, 2012. "Global trends in tropical cyclone risk," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(4), pages 289-294, April.
    4. Yu Kosaka & Shang-Ping Xie, 2013. "Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling," Nature, Nature, vol. 501(7467), pages 403-407, September.
    5. Ping Huang & I. -I Lin & Chia Chou & Rong-Hui Huang, 2015. "Change in ocean subsurface environment to suppress tropical cyclone intensification under global warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-9, November.
    6. Lin Li & Pinaki Chakraborty, 2020. "Slower decay of landfalling hurricanes in a warming world," Nature, Nature, vol. 587(7833), pages 230-234, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Idriss Fontaine & Sabine Garabedian & David Nortes Martínez & Hélène Vérèmes, 2021. "Tropical Cyclones and Fertility : New Evidence from Madagascar," Working Papers hal-03243455, HAL.
    2. Akter, Sonia & Mallick, Bishawjit, 2013. "An empirical investigation of socio-economic resilience to natural disasters," MPRA Paper 50375, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Xiaotong Sui & Mingzhao Hu & Haoyun Wang & Lingdi Zhao, 2023. "Improved elasticity estimation model for typhoon storm surge losses in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(2), pages 2363-2381, March.
    4. Dino Collalti & Eric Strobl, 2022. "Economic damages due to extreme precipitation during tropical storms: evidence from Jamaica," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(3), pages 2059-2086, February.
    5. Simon Lloyd & R. Kovats & Zaid Chalabi & Sally Brown & Robert Nicholls, 2016. "Modelling the influences of climate change-associated sea-level rise and socioeconomic development on future storm surge mortality," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 441-455, February.
    6. Stanley Changnon, 2009. "Characteristics of severe Atlantic hurricanes in the United States: 1949–2006," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 48(3), pages 329-337, March.
    7. Pujun Liang & Wei Xu & Yunjia Ma & Xiujuan Zhao & Lianjie Qin, 2017. "Increase of Elderly Population in the Rainstorm Hazard Areas of China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-17, August.
    8. Ikefuji, Masako & Horii, Ryo, 2012. "Natural disasters in a two-sector model of endogenous growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(9-10), pages 784-796.
    9. Brokovich, E. & Schwarz, A.M. & Oeta, J., 2012. "Building social and ecological resilience to climate change in Roviana, Solomon Islands: PASAP country activity for Solomon Islands: Brief review: climate change trends and projections for Solomon Isl," Monographs, The WorldFish Center, number 40178, April.
    10. Shibly Shahrier & Koji Kotani, 2016. "Labor Donation Or Money Donation? Pro-Sociality On Prevention Of Natural Disasters In A Case Of Cyclone Aila, Bangladesh," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(01), pages 1-26, March.
    11. Teh, Su Yean & DeAngelis, Donald L. & Sternberg, Leonel da Silveira Lobo & Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando R. & Smith, Thomas J. & Koh, Hock-Lye, 2008. "A simulation model for projecting changes in salinity concentrations and species dominance in the coastal margin habitats of the Everglades," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 245-256.
    12. Jidong Wu & Ying Li & Ning Li & Peijun Shi, 2018. "Development of an Asset Value Map for Disaster Risk Assessment in China by Spatial Disaggregation Using Ancillary Remote Sensing Data," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(1), pages 17-30, January.
    13. Stephen J. Déry & Marco A. Hernández-Henríquez & Tricia A. Stadnyk & Tara J. Troy, 2021. "Vanishing weekly hydropeaking cycles in American and Canadian rivers," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    14. Felix Pretis & Michael Mann & Robert Kaufmann, 2015. "Testing competing models of the temperature hiatus: assessing the effects of conditioning variables and temporal uncertainties through sample-wide break detection," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(4), pages 705-718, August.
    15. Pelli, Martino & Tschopp, Jeanne & Bezmaternykh, Natalia & Eklou, Kodjovi M., 2023. "In the eye of the storm: Firms and capital destruction in India," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    16. Yanos Zylberberg, 2010. "Natural natural disasters and economic disruption," PSE Working Papers halshs-00564946, HAL.
    17. S. Seo, 2014. "Estimating Tropical Cyclone Damages Under Climate Change in the Southern Hemisphere Using Reported Damages," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 58(3), pages 473-490, July.
    18. Nicola Ranger & Falk Nieh�rster, 2011. "Deep uncertainty in long-term hurricane risk: scenario generation and implications for future climate experiments," GRI Working Papers 51, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    19. Claudio, Morana & Giacomo, Sbrana, 2017. "Some Financial Implications of Global Warming: An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers 377, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 25 Dec 2017.
    20. Claudio, Morana & Giacomo, Sbrana, 2017. "Temperature anomalies, radiative forcing and ENSO," Working Papers 361, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 10 Feb 2017.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-44403-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.