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Seismic precursors to the Whakaari 2019 phreatic eruption are transferable to other eruptions and volcanoes

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  • Alberto Ardid

    (University of Canterbury)

  • David Dempsey

    (University of Canterbury)

  • Corentin Caudron

    (Université Libre de Bruxelles)

  • Shane Cronin

    (University of Auckland)

Abstract

Volcanic eruptions that occur without warning can be deadly in touristic and populated areas. Even with real-time geophysical monitoring, forecasting sudden eruptions is difficult, because their precursors are hard to recognize and can vary between volcanoes. Here, we describe a general seismic precursor signal for gas-driven eruptions, identified through correlation analysis of 18 well-recorded eruptions in New Zealand, Alaska, and Kamchatka. The precursor manifests in the displacement seismic amplitude ratio between medium (4.5–8 Hz) and high (8–16 Hz) frequency tremor bands, exhibiting a characteristic rise in the days prior to eruptions. We interpret this as formation of a hydrothermal seal that enables rapid pressurization of shallow groundwater. Applying this model to the 2019 eruption at Whakaari (New Zealand), we describe pressurization of the system in the week before the eruption, and cascading seal failure in the 16 h prior to the explosion. Real-time monitoring for this precursor may improve short-term eruption warning systems at certain volcanoes.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Ardid & David Dempsey & Corentin Caudron & Shane Cronin, 2022. "Seismic precursors to the Whakaari 2019 phreatic eruption are transferable to other eruptions and volcanoes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-29681-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-29681-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. D. E. Dempsey & S. J. Cronin & S. Mei & A. W. Kempa-Liehr, 2020. "Automatic precursor recognition and real-time forecasting of sudden explosive volcanic eruptions at Whakaari, New Zealand," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-8, December.
    2. A. Mark Jellinek & David Bercovici, 2011. "Seismic tremors and magma wagging during explosive volcanism," Nature, Nature, vol. 470(7335), pages 522-525, February.
    3. Markus Reichstein & Gustau Camps-Valls & Bjorn Stevens & Martin Jung & Joachim Denzler & Nuno Carvalhais & Prabhat, 2019. "Deep learning and process understanding for data-driven Earth system science," Nature, Nature, vol. 566(7743), pages 195-204, February.
    4. S. Mostafa Mousavi & William L. Ellsworth & Weiqiang Zhu & Lindsay Y. Chuang & Gregory C. Beroza, 2020. "Earthquake transformer—an attentive deep-learning model for simultaneous earthquake detection and phase picking," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
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