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A Surrogate-Based Optimization Design and Uncertainty Analysis for Urban Flood Mitigation

Author

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  • Wen Zhang

    (Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Jing Li

    (Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Yunhao Chen

    (Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Yang Li

    (Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University)

Abstract

This study proposes a surrogate-based optimization framework (SBO) to help analyze the tradeoff between flood damages and investment while considering uncertainty originating from surrogates. The surrogate models were constructed based on the relationship between drainage specifications and simulated flood information and used to replace the numerical model in optimization, thereby reducing the computational burden. The bootstrapping approach was employed to quantify the uncertainty originating from surrogate models, which were incorporated into the NSGA-II optimization algorithm to seek the interval of optimal solutions. Through a case study, the results showed that the uncertainties caused by surrogate models have a significant influence on the reliability of the optimal solutions, but require lower computational efforts. Moreover, the local design conditions (i.e., various designed rainfalls) had an impact on the design and performance of the detention tanks. The proposed framework will facilitate cost-effective planning of flood mitigation systems with an awareness of associated uncertainty in order to resolve tradeoffs, particularly for large-scale problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Wen Zhang & Jing Li & Yunhao Chen & Yang Li, 2019. "A Surrogate-Based Optimization Design and Uncertainty Analysis for Urban Flood Mitigation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(12), pages 4201-4214, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:12:d:10.1007_s11269-019-02355-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-019-02355-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ahmed El-Shafie & Amr El-Shafie & Muhammad Mukhlisin, 2014. "New Approach: Integrated Risk-Stochastic Dynamic Model for Dam and Reservoir Optimization," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(8), pages 2093-2107, June.
    2. J. Yazdi & S. Salehi Neyshabouri, 2012. "A Simulation-Based Optimization Model for Flood Management on a Watershed Scale," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(15), pages 4569-4586, December.
    3. Markus Reichstein & Gustau Camps-Valls & Bjorn Stevens & Martin Jung & Joachim Denzler & Nuno Carvalhais & Prabhat, 2019. "Deep learning and process understanding for data-driven Earth system science," Nature, Nature, vol. 566(7743), pages 195-204, February.
    4. Robert Oxley & Larry Mays, 2014. "Optimization – Simulation Model for Detention Basin System Design," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(4), pages 1157-1171, March.
    5. Fei Li & Huan-Feng Duan & Hexiang Yan & Tao Tao, 2015. "Multi-Objective Optimal Design of Detention Tanks in the Urban Stormwater Drainage System: Framework Development and Case Study," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(7), pages 2125-2137, May.
    6. Puneet Khatavkar & Larry W. Mays, 2017. "Optimization Models for the Design of Vegetative Filter Strips for Stormwater Runoff and Sediment Control," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(9), pages 2545-2560, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fatemeh Yavari & Seyyed Ali Salehi Neyshabouri & Jafar Yazdi & Amir Molajou & Adam Brysiewicz, 2022. "A Novel Framework for Urban Flood damage Assessment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(6), pages 1991-2011, April.
    2. Md Golam Rabbani Fahad & Rouzbeh Nazari & M. H. Motamedi & Maryam E. Karimi, 2020. "Coupled Hydrodynamic and Geospatial Model for Assessing Resiliency of Coastal Structures under Extreme Storm Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(3), pages 1123-1138, February.

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