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Large uncertainties in trends of energy demand for heating and cooling under climate change

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  • Adrien Deroubaix

    (École Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, ENS, IPSL Research University, Sorbonne Université, CNRS)

  • Inga Labuhn

    (University of Bremen)

  • Marie Camredon

    (Université Paris-Est Créteil, CNRS, Université de Paris, IPSL)

  • Benjamin Gaubert

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Paul-Arthur Monerie

    (National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading)

  • Max Popp

    (École Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, ENS, IPSL Research University, Sorbonne Université, CNRS)

  • Johanna Ramarohetra

    (Independent researcher)

  • Yohan Ruprich-Robert

    (Barcelona Supercomputing Center, BSC)

  • Levi G. Silvers

    (School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, State University of New York at Stony Brook)

  • Guillaume Siour

    (Université Paris-Est Créteil, CNRS, Université de Paris, IPSL)

Abstract

The energy demand for heating and cooling buildings is changing with global warming. Using proxies of climate-driven energy demand based on the heating and cooling Degree-Days methodology applied to thirty global climate model simulations, we show that, over all continental areas, the climate-driven energy demand trends for heating and cooling were weak, changing by less than 10% from 1950 to 1990, but become stronger from 1990 to 2030, changing by more than 10%. With the multi-model mean, the increasing trends in cooling energy demand are more pronounced than the decreasing trends in heating. The changes in cooling, however, are highly variable depending on individual simulations, ranging from a few to several hundred percent in most of the densely populated mid-latitude areas. This work presents an example of the challenges that accompany future energy demand quantification as a result of the uncertainty in the projected climate.

Suggested Citation

  • Adrien Deroubaix & Inga Labuhn & Marie Camredon & Benjamin Gaubert & Paul-Arthur Monerie & Max Popp & Johanna Ramarohetra & Yohan Ruprich-Robert & Levi G. Silvers & Guillaume Siour, 2021. "Large uncertainties in trends of energy demand for heating and cooling under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-25504-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25504-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiang, Xiwang & Ma, Minda & Ma, Xin & Chen, Liming & Cai, Weiguang & Feng, Wei & Ma, Zhili, 2022. "Historical decarbonization of global commercial building operations in the 21st century," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    2. Ma, Y. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H., 2023. "Planning China’s non-deterministic energy system (2021–2060) to achieve carbon neutrality," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    3. Chen, Si-Yuan & Xue, Meng-Tian & Wang, Zhao-Hua & Tian, Xin & Zhang, Bin, 2022. "Exploring pathways of phasing out clean heating subsidies for rural residential buildings in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    4. Laibao Liu & Gang He & Mengxi Wu & Gang Liu & Haoran Zhang & Ying Chen & Jiashu Shen & Shuangcheng Li, 2023. "Climate change impacts on planned supply–demand match in global wind and solar energy systems," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 8(8), pages 870-880, August.
    5. Chen, Xie & Zhou, Chaohui & Tian, Zhiyong & Mao, Hongzhi & Luo, Yongqiang & Sun, Deyu & Fan, Jianhua & Jiang, Liguang & Deng, Jie & Rosen, Marc A., 2023. "Different photovoltaic power potential variations in East and West China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 351(C).
    6. Bing Xia & Suocheng Dong & Yu Li & Zehong Li & Dongqi Sun & Wenbiao Zhang & Wenlong Li, 2021. "Evolution Characters and Influencing Factors of Regional Eco-Efficiency in a Developing Country: Evidence from Mongolia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(20), pages 1-20, October.
    7. Paula M. Wenzel & Marc Mühlen & Peter Radgen, 2023. "Free Cooling for Saving Energy: Technical Market Analysis of Dry, Wet, and Hybrid Cooling Based on Manufacturer Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-27, April.

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