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Greenhouse gas consequences of the China dual credit policy

Author

Listed:
  • Xin He

    (Aramco Services Company: Aramco Research Center – Detroit)

  • Shiqi Ou

    (National Transportation Research Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory)

  • Yu Gan

    (Systems Assessment Center, Energy Systems Division, Argonne National Laboratory)

  • Zifeng Lu

    (Systems Assessment Center, Energy Systems Division, Argonne National Laboratory)

  • Steven Victor Przesmitzki

    (Aramco Services Company: Aramco Research Center – Detroit)

  • Jessey Lee Bouchard

    (Aramco Services Company: Aramco Research Center – Detroit)

  • Lang Sui

    (Aramco Services Company: Aramco Research Center – Detroit)

  • Amer Ahmad Amer

    (Research and Development Center, Saudi Aramco)

  • Zhenhong Lin

    (National Transportation Research Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory)

  • Rujie Yu

    (China Automotive Technology and Research Center)

  • Yan Zhou

    (Systems Assessment Center, Energy Systems Division, Argonne National Laboratory)

  • Michael Wang

    (Systems Assessment Center, Energy Systems Division, Argonne National Laboratory)

Abstract

For over ten years, China has been the largest vehicle market in the world. In order to address energy security and air quality concerns, China issued the Dual Credit policy to improve vehicle efficiency and accelerate New Energy Vehicle adoption. In this paper, a market-penetration model is combined with a vehicle fleet model to assess implications on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy demand. Here we use this integrated modeling framework to study several scenarios, including hypothetical policy tweaks, oil price, battery cost and charging infrastructure for the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet. The model shows that the total GHGs of the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet are expected to peak in 2032 under the Dual Credit policy. A significant reduction in GHG emissions is possible if more efficient internal combustion engines continue to be part of the technology mix in the short term with more New Energy Vehicle penetration in the long term.

Suggested Citation

  • Xin He & Shiqi Ou & Yu Gan & Zifeng Lu & Steven Victor Przesmitzki & Jessey Lee Bouchard & Lang Sui & Amer Ahmad Amer & Zhenhong Lin & Rujie Yu & Yan Zhou & Michael Wang, 2020. "Greenhouse gas consequences of the China dual credit policy," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-19036-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19036-w
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    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Xinglong & Zhao, Fuquan & Hao, Han & Liu, Zongwei, 2023. "Comparative analysis for different vehicle powertrains in terms of energy-saving potential and cost-effectiveness in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    2. Hu, Xu & Yang, Zhaojun & Sun, Jun & Zhang, Yali, 2021. "Exempting battery electric vehicles from traffic restrictions: Impacts on market and environment under Pigovian taxation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 53-91.
    3. Hwang, Jeong Seop & Rho, Jae Jeung & Hwang, Yoon Min, 2023. "Influence of cognitive and social change factors on E-vehicle switching intention: Evidence from Korea," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Fang, Yan Ru & Peng, Wei & Urpelainen, Johannes & Hossain, M.S. & Qin, Yue & Ma, Teng & Ren, Ming & Liu, Xiaorui & Zhang, Silu & Huang, Chen & Dai, Hancheng, 2023. "Neutralizing China's transportation sector requires combined decarbonization efforts from power and hydrogen supply," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 349(C).
    5. Dong-Xiao Yang & Lei Yang & Xiao-Ling Chen & Chan Wang & Pu-Yan Nie, 2023. "Research on credit pricing mechanism in dual-credit policy: is the government in charge or is the market in charge?," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 1561-1581, February.
    6. Li, Chao & Yi, Yongxi & Zhang, Aoxiang & Chen, Biao, 2023. "Fuel consumption-reduction investment decisions and coordination contracts in fuel vehicle supply chains: A dynamic analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    7. Yangyang Wang & Yongxi Yi & Chunyan Fu & Yuqiong Li, 2023. "Price competition and joint energy‐consumption reduction technology investment of new energy and fuel vehicles under the double‐points policy," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 2278-2291, June.
    8. Paul Wolfram & Stephanie Weber & Kenneth Gillingham & Edgar G. Hertwich, 2021. "Pricing indirect emissions accelerates low—carbon transition of US light vehicle sector," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    9. Tong Zhang, Paul J. Burke, and Qi Wang, 2024. "Effectiveness of electric vehicle subsidies in China: A three-dimensional panel study," Departmental Working Papers 2024-1, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    10. Nie, Qingyun & Zhang, Lihui & Li, Songrui, 2022. "How can personal carbon trading be applied in electric vehicle subsidies? A Stackelberg game method in private vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    11. Hao, Jing & He, Feng, 2022. "Corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance and green innovation: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    12. Gan, Yu & Wang, Michael & Lu, Zifeng & Kelly, Jarod, 2021. "Taking into account greenhouse gas emissions of electric vehicles for transportation de-carbonization," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    13. Li, Jingjing & Nian, Victor & Jiao, Jianling, 2022. "Diffusion and benefits evaluation of electric vehicles under policy interventions based on a multiagent system dynamics model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    14. Kangda Chen & Fuquan Zhao & Han Hao & Zongwei Liu & Xinglong Liu, 2021. "Hierarchical Optimization Decision-Making Method to Comply with China’s Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credit Regulations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-25, July.
    15. Luo, Qi & Yin, Yunlei & Chen, Pengyu & Zhan, Zhenfei & Saigal, Romesh, 2022. "Dynamic subsidies for synergistic development of charging infrastructure and electric vehicle adoption," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 117-136.
    16. Cheng, Yongwei & Fan, Tijun, 2021. "Production coopetition strategies for an FV automaker and a competitive NEV automaker under the dual-credit policy," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).

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