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Impacts of solar intermittency on future photovoltaic reliability

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  • Jun Yin

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology)

  • Annalisa Molini

    (Khalifa University of Science and Technology
    Khalifa University of Science and Technology)

  • Amilcare Porporato

    (Princeton University
    Princeton University)

Abstract

As photovoltaic power is expanding rapidly worldwide, it is imperative to assess its promise under future climate scenarios. While a great deal of research has been devoted to trends in mean solar radiation, less attention has been paid to its intermittent character, a key challenge when compounded with uncertainties related to climate variability. Using both satellite data and climate model outputs, we characterize solar radiation intermittency to assess future photovoltaic reliability. We find that the relation between the future power supply and long-term mean solar radiation trends is spatially heterogeneous, showing power reliability is more sensitive to the fluctuations of mean solar radiation in hot arid regions. Our results highlight how reliability analysis must account simultaneously for the mean and intermittency of solar inputs when assessing the impacts of climate change on photovoltaics.

Suggested Citation

  • Jun Yin & Annalisa Molini & Amilcare Porporato, 2020. "Impacts of solar intermittency on future photovoltaic reliability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-18602-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18602-6
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    Cited by:

    1. Abhnil Amtesh Prasad & Merlinde Kay, 2021. "Prediction of Solar Power Using Near-Real Time Satellite Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-20, September.
    2. Li, Ruohan & Wang, Dongdong & Wang, Zhihao & Liang, Shunlin & Li, Zhanqing & Xie, Yiqun & He, Jiena, 2025. "Transformer approach to nowcasting solar energy using geostationary satellite data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 377(PA).
    3. Terrén-Serrano, G. & Martínez-Ramón, M., 2023. "Kernel learning for intra-hour solar forecasting with infrared sky images and cloud dynamic feature extraction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    4. Tang, Liangyu & Han, Yang & Zhou, Siyu & Zalhaf, Amr S. & Yang, Ping & Wang, Congling & Huang, Tao & Lu, Chang, 2025. "Identification and vulnerability assessment of critical components in distribution networks under high penetration rate conditions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 318(C).
    5. Hamed, Mohammed H. & Hassan, Hamdy & Ookawara, Shinichi & Nada, Sameh A., 2024. "Performance comparative study on passively cooled concentrated photovoltaic (PV) using adsorption/desorption and heat sink cooling methods: Experimental investigations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    6. Ghanim, Marrwa S. & Farhan, Ammar A., 2023. "Projected patterns of climate change impact on photovoltaic energy potential: A case study of Iraq," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 338-346.
    7. Castellini, Marta & D'Alpaos, Chiara & Fontini, Fulvio & Moretto, Michele, 2025. "Optimal investment in an energy storage system," FEEM Working Papers 349431, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    8. Song, Zihao & Huang, Lin & Dong, Qichang & Zhang, Guomin & Chew, Michael Yit Lin & Setunge, Sujeeva & Shi, Long, 2025. "Impacts of shadow conditions on solar PV array performance: A full-scale experimental and empirical study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 320(C).
    9. Guo, Jingxian & Li, Runkui & Cai, Panli & Xiao, Zhen & Fu, Haiyu & Guo, Tongze & Wang, Tianyi & Zhang, Xiaoping & Wang, Jiancheng & Song, Xianfeng, 2024. "Risk in solar energy: Spatio-temporal instability and extreme low-light events in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 359(C).
    10. Jiang, Hou & Yao, Ling & Lu, Ning & Qin, Jun & Zhang, Xiaotong & Liu, Tang & Zhang, Xingxing & Zhou, Chenghu, 2024. "Exploring the optimization of rooftop photovoltaic scale and spatial layout under curtailment constraints," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    11. Jiang, Hou & Zhang, Xiaotong & Yao, Ling & Lu, Ning & Qin, Jun & Liu, Tang & Zhou, Chenghu, 2023. "High-resolution analysis of rooftop photovoltaic potential based on hourly generation simulations and load profiles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).
    12. João Ider & Adhimar Oliveira & Rero Rubinger & Ana Karoline Silva & Aluízio Assini & Geraldo Tiago-Filho & Marcia Baldissera, 2022. "Concentrated Solar Power with Thermoelectric Generator—An Approach Using the Cross-Entropy Optimization Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-11, June.
    13. Zhao, Zhiying & Lan, Yanfei & Xu, Shuxian & Zou, Hongyang & Du, Huibin, 2024. "Addressing the reliability challenge: Subsidy policies for promoting renewable electricity consumption," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    14. Chisale, Sylvester William & Lee, Han Soo & Soto Calvo, Manuel Alejandro & Jeong, Jae-Soon & Aljber, Morhaf & Williams, Zachary & Cabrera, Jonathan Salar, 2025. "Advanced solar energy potential assessment in Malawi: Utilizing high-resolution WRF model and GIS to identify optimal sites for solar PV generation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    15. Jiang, Hou & Lu, Ning & Yao, Ling & Qin, Jun & Liu, Tang, 2023. "Impact of climate changes on the stability of solar energy: Evidence from observations and reanalysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 726-736.
    16. Chen, Qi & Kuang, Zhonghong & Liu, Xiaohua & Zhang, Tao, 2022. "Energy storage to solve the diurnal, weekly, and seasonal mismatch and achieve zero-carbon electricity consumption in buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    17. Hou Jiang & Ling Yao & Jun Qin & Yongqing Bai & Martin Brandt & Xu Lian & Steve J. Davis & Ning Lu & Wenli Zhao & Tang Liu & Chenghu Zhou, 2025. "Globally interconnected solar-wind system addresses future electricity demands," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16, December.
    18. Saini, Raj Kumar & Saini, Devender Kumar & Gupta, Rajeev & Verma, Piush & Thakur, Robin & Kumar, Sushil & wassouf, Ali, 2023. "Technological development in solar dryers from 2016 to 2021-A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    19. Jianxiao Wang & Liudong Chen & Zhenfei Tan & Ershun Du & Nian Liu & Jing Ma & Mingyang Sun & Canbing Li & Jie Song & Xi Lu & Chin-Woo Tan & Guannan He, 2023. "Inherent spatiotemporal uncertainty of renewable power in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.

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