IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v11y2020i1d10.1038_s41467-020-16012-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Drought and climate change impacts on cooling water shortages and electricity prices in Great Britain

Author

Listed:
  • Edward A. Byers

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Gemma Coxon

    (University of Bristol
    University of Bristol)

  • Jim Freer

    (University of Bristol
    University of Bristol)

  • Jim W. Hall

    (University of Oxford)

Abstract

The risks of cooling water shortages to thermo-electric power plants are increasingly studied as an important climate risk to the energy sector. Whilst electricity transmission networks reduce the risks during disruptions, more costly plants must provide alternative supplies. Here, we investigate the electricity price impacts of cooling water shortages on Britain’s power supplies using a probabilistic spatial risk model of regional climate, hydrological droughts and cooling water shortages, coupled with an economic model of electricity supply, demand and prices. We find that on extreme days (p99), almost 50% (7GWe) of freshwater thermal capacity is unavailable. Annualized cumulative costs on electricity prices range from £29–66m.yr-1 GBP2018, whilst in 20% of cases from £66-95m.yr-1. With climate change, the median annualized impact exceeds £100m.yr-1. The single year impacts of a 1-in-25 year event exceed >£200m, indicating the additional investments justifiable to mitigate the 1st-order economic risks of cooling water shortage during droughts.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward A. Byers & Gemma Coxon & Jim Freer & Jim W. Hall, 2020. "Drought and climate change impacts on cooling water shortages and electricity prices in Great Britain," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-16012-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-16012-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16012-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-020-16012-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jing-Li Fan & Zezheng Li & Xi Huang & Kai Li & Xian Zhang & Xi Lu & Jianzhong Wu & Klaus Hubacek & Bo Shen, 2023. "A net-zero emissions strategy for China’s power sector using carbon-capture utilization and storage," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Tanaka Mandy Mbavarira & Christine Grimm, 2021. "A Systemic View on Circular Economy in the Water Industry: Learnings from a Belgian and Dutch Case," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-62, March.
    3. Turner, Sean W.D. & Nelson, Kristian & Voisin, Nathalie & Tidwell, Vincent & Miara, Ariel & Dyreson, Ana & Cohen, Stuart & Mantena, Dan & Jin, Julie & Warnken, Pete & Kao, Shih-Chieh, 2021. "A multi-reservoir model for projecting drought impacts on thermoelectric disruption risk across the Texas power grid," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    4. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    5. Hyungjin Shin & Gyumin Lee & Jaenam Lee & Sehoon Kim & Inhong Song, 2023. "Assessment of Agricultural Drought Vulnerability with Focus on Upland Fields and Identification of Primary Management Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-16, February.
    6. Xia Li & Kevin P. Gallagher, 2022. "Assessing the climate change exposure of foreign direct investment," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    7. Doan, Bao & Vo, Duc Hong & Pham, Huy, 2023. "The net economic benefits of power plants: International evidence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    8. Tomasz Walczykiewicz & Mateusz Żelazny, 2022. "Hydrological and Environmental Conditions and Implications of the Operation of a Thermal Power Plant with an Open Cooling System—An Example from Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-24, May.
    9. Ye, Liping, 2022. "The effect of climate news risk on uncertainties," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    10. Dong, Xiyong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2023. "Effect of weather and environmental attentions on financial system risks: Evidence from Chinese high- and low-carbon assets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    11. Farman Ali & Bing-Zhao Li & Zulfiqar Ali, 2022. "A New Weighting Scheme for Diminishing the Effect of Extreme Values in Regional Drought Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(11), pages 4099-4114, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-16012-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.