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Energy transformation cost for the Japanese mid-century strategy

Author

Listed:
  • Shinichiro Fujimori

    (Kyoto University
    Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
    International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA))

  • Ken Oshiro

    (Kyoto University)

  • Hiroto Shiraki

    (The University of Shiga Prefecture)

  • Tomoko Hasegawa

    (Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
    International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA)
    Ritsumeikan University)

Abstract

The costs of climate change mitigation policy are one of the main concerns in decarbonizing the economy. The macroeconomic and sectoral implications of policy interventions are typically estimated by economic models, which tend be higher than the additional energy system costs projected by energy system models. Here, we show the extent to which policy costs can be lower than those from conventional economic models by integrating an energy system and an economic model, applying Japan’s mid-century climate mitigation target. The GDP losses estimated with the integrated model were significantly lower than those in the conventional economic model by more than 50% in 2050. The representation of industry and service sector energy consumption is the main factor causing these differences. Our findings suggest that this type of integrated approach would contribute new insights by providing improved estimates of GDP losses, which can be critical information for setting national climate policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Shinichiro Fujimori & Ken Oshiro & Hiroto Shiraki & Tomoko Hasegawa, 2019. "Energy transformation cost for the Japanese mid-century strategy," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-12730-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12730-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Ken Oshiro & Shinichiro Fujimori, 2024. "Limited impact of hydrogen co-firing on prolonging fossil-based power generation under low emissions scenarios," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Burandt, Thorsten, 2021. "Analyzing the necessity of hydrogen imports for net-zero emission scenarios in Japan," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    3. Ruth Delzeit & Roberto Beach & Ruben Bibas & Wolfgang Britz & Jean Chateau & Florian Freund & Julien Lefevre & Franziska Schuenemann & Timothy Sulser & Hugo Valin & Bas van Ruijven & Matthias Weitzel , 2020. "Linking global CGE models with sectoral models to generate baseline scenarios: Approaches, opportunities and pitfalls," Post-Print hal-03128285, HAL.
    4. Le Treut, Gaëlle & Lefèvre, Julien & Lallana, Francisco & Bravo, Gonzalo, 2021. "The multi-level economic impacts of deep decarbonization strategies for the energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    5. Ju, Yiyi & Sugiyama, Masahiro & Kato, Etsushi & Oshiro, Ken & Wang, Jiayang, 2022. "Job creation in response to Japan’s energy transition towards deep mitigation: An extension of partial equilibrium integrated assessment models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 318(C).
    6. Oshiro, Ken & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Ochi, Yuki & Ehara, Tomoki, 2021. "Enabling energy system transition toward decarbonization in Japan through energy service demand reduction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    7. Jiaze Sun & Huijuan Lee & Jun Yang, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Value Chain of the Manufacturing Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-20, November.
    8. William Wills & Emilio Lebre La Rovere & Carolina Grottera & Giovanna Ferrazzo Naspolini & Gaëlle Le Treut & F. Ghersi & Julien Lefèvre & Carolina Burle Schmidt Dubeux, 2022. "Economic and social effectiveness of carbon pricing schemes to meet Brazilian NDC targets," Post-Print hal-03500923, HAL.
    9. Xin Su & Frédéric Ghersi & Fei Teng & Gaëlle Treut & Meicong Liang, 2022. "The economic impact of a deep decarbonisation pathway for China: a hybrid model analysis through bottom-up and top-down linking," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-37, January.
    10. Harada, Kosuke & Yabe, Kuniaki & Takami, Hirofumi & Goto, Akira & Sato, Yasushi & Hayashi, Yasuhiro, 2023. "Two-step approach for quasi-optimization of energy storage and transportation at renewable energy site," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 846-858.
    11. Wang, Yihan & Wen, Zongguo & Lv, Xiaojun & Zhu, Junming, 2023. "The regional discrepancies in the contribution of China’s thermal power plants toward the carbon peaking target," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 337(C).
    12. Wang, Yihan & Zhang, Lanxin & Wen, Zongguo & Chen, Chen & Cao, Xin & Doh Dinga, Christian, 2023. "Optimization of the sustainable production pathways under multiple industries and objectives: A study of China's three energy- and emission-intensive industries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).

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