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Current warming will reduce yields unless maize breeding and seed systems adapt immediately

Author

Listed:
  • A. J. Challinor

    (Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds
    CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS))

  • A.-K. Koehler

    (Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds)

  • J. Ramirez-Villegas

    (Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds
    CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS))

  • S. Whitfield

    (Sustainable Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds)

  • B. Das

    (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), PO Box 1041)

Abstract

The process of breeding, delivery and adoption of new maize varieties can take 30 years. Projected difference in temperature between the start and end of the maize development cycle suggests the need for immediate development to prevent yield losses.

Suggested Citation

  • A. J. Challinor & A.-K. Koehler & J. Ramirez-Villegas & S. Whitfield & B. Das, 2016. "Current warming will reduce yields unless maize breeding and seed systems adapt immediately," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(10), pages 954-958, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:6:y:2016:i:10:d:10.1038_nclimate3061
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3061
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Ola Tveitereid Westengen & Kristine Skarbø & Teshome Hunduma Mulesa & Trygve Berg, 2018. "Access to genes: linkages between genebanks and farmers’ seed systems," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 10(1), pages 9-25, February.
    3. Komarek, Adam M. & Thierfelder, Christian & Steward, Peter R., 2021. "Conservation agriculture improves adaptive capacity of cropping systems to climate stress in Malawi," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    4. Shimelis Araya Geda & Rainer Kühl, 2021. "Exploring Smallholder Farmers’ Preferences for Climate-Smart Seed Innovations: Empirical Evidence from Southern Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-17, March.
    5. Patrick F. Dowd & Eric T. Johnson, 2018. "Insect damage influences heat and water stress resistance gene expression in field-grown popcorn: implications in developing crop varieties adapted to climate change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(7), pages 1063-1081, October.
    6. Manners, Rhys & Vandamme, Elke & Adewopo, Julius & Thornton, Philip & Friedmann, Michael & Carpentier, Sebastien & Ezui, Kodjovi Senam & Thiele, Graham, 2021. "Suitability of root, tuber, and banana crops in Central Africa can be favoured under future climates," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    7. Keyvan Malek & Patrick Reed & Jennifer Adam & Tina Karimi & Michael Brady, 2020. "Water rights shape crop yield and revenue volatility tradeoffs for adaptation in snow dependent systems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    8. Yuji Masutomi & Takahiro Takimoto & Toru Manabe & Yoko Imai & Makoto Tamura & Kazuhiko Kobayashi, 2023. "Breeding targets for heat-tolerant rice varieties in Japan in a warming climate," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 1-19, January.
    9. Louise Beveridge & Stephen Whitfield & Andy Challinor, 2018. "Crop modelling: towards locally relevant and climate-informed adaptation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 475-489, April.
    10. Rory G. J. Fitzpatrick & Douglas J. Parker & John H. Marsham & David P. Rowell & Lawrence S. Jackson & Declan Finney & Chetan Deva & Simon Tucker & Rachael Stratton, 2020. "How a typical West African day in the future-climate compares with current-climate conditions in a convection-permitting and parameterised convection climate model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 267-296, November.
    11. Oscar J. Cacho & Jonathan Moss & Philip K. Thornton & Mario Herrero & Ben Henderson & Benjamin L. Bodirsky & Florian Humpenöder & Alexander Popp & Leslie Lipper, 2020. "The value of climate-resilient seeds for smallholder adaptation in sub-Saharan Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1213-1229, October.
    12. Stephen Whitfield & Sarah Chapman & Marcelin Tonye Mahop & Chetan Deva & Kennedy Masamba & Andekelile Mwamahonje, 2021. "Exploring assumptions in crop breeding for climate resilience: opportunities and principles for integrating climate model projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-18, February.
    13. Charles Onyutha, 2018. "African crop production trends are insufficient to guarantee food security in the sub-Saharan region by 2050 owing to persistent poverty," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 10(5), pages 1203-1219, October.
    14. Blanca Isabel Sánchez-Toledano & Zein Kallas & Oscar Palmeros Rojas & José M. Gil, 2018. "Determinant Factors of the Adoption of Improved Maize Seeds in Southern Mexico: A Survival Analysis Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-22, October.
    15. Dazhuan Ge & Hualou Long & Li Ma & Yingnan Zhang & Shuangshuang Tu, 2017. "Analysis Framework of China’s Grain Production System: A Spatial Resilience Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-21, December.
    16. Pinheiro, Everton Alves Rodrigues & de Jong van Lier, Quirijn & Šimůnek, Jirka, 2019. "The role of soil hydraulic properties in crop water use efficiency: A process-based analysis for some Brazilian scenarios," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 364-377.
    17. Chunlei Wang & Liping Feng & Lu Wu & Chen Cheng & Yizhuo Li & Jintao Yan & Jiachen Gao & Fu Chen, 2020. "Assessment of Genotypes and Management Strategies to Improve Resilience of Winter Wheat Production," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-21, February.
    18. Viswanathan, Michelle & Scheidegger, Andreas & Streck, Thilo & Gayler, Sebastian & Weber, Tobias K.D., 2022. "Bayesian multi-level calibration of a process-based maize phenology model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 474(C).
    19. Tianyi Zhang & Yong He & Ron DePauw & Zhenong Jin & David Garvin & Xu Yue & Weston Anderson & Tao Li & Xin Dong & Tao Zhang & Xiaoguang Yang, 2022. "Climate change may outpace current wheat breeding yield improvements in North America," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    20. Zhao, Jin & Yang, Xiaoguang & Liu, Zhijuan & Pullens, Johannes W.M. & Chen, Ji & Marek, Gary W. & Chen, Yong & Lv, Shuo & Sun, Shuang, 2020. "Greater maize yield improvements in low/unstable yield zones through recommended nutrient and water inputs in the main cropping regions, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).

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