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On the behavior of fiscal policy with costly expectations


  • Martin Guzman

    (Department of Economics, Brown University)


This paper extends the Talvi and Végh (2005) model on the behavior of fiscal policy, introducing agent-based issues. Like in Talvi and Végh (2005), the theoretical framework is à la Barro (1979), but rational expectations are costly. The agents can choose between two strategies in forming expectations: buying costly rational expectations or freely following the trend. Unlike Talvi and Végh (2005), I show that procyclicality of fiscal policy is not necessarily the government's optimal behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Guzman, 2009. "On the behavior of fiscal policy with costly expectations," Económica, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, vol. 0, pages 29-44, January-D.
  • Handle: RePEc:lap:journl:566

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Alberto Alesina & Filipe R. Campante & Guido Tabellini, 2008. "Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(5), pages 1006-1036, September.
    2. Riccardo Fiorito, 1997. "Stylized Facts of Government Finance in the G-7," IMF Working Papers 97/142, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
    4. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    5. Huang, Chao-Hsi & Lin, Kenneth S., 1993. "Deficits, government expenditures, and tax smoothing in the United States: 1929-1988," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 317-339, June.
    6. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
    7. Bennett W Sutton & Luis Catão, 2002. "Sovereign Defaults; The Role of Volatility," IMF Working Papers 02/149, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Fiorito, Riccardo & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1994. "Stylized facts of business cycles in the G7 from a real business cycles perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 235-269, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. BIKAI, J. Landry, 2015. "Fiscal Rules and Pro-cyclicality of the Fiscal Policy in CEMAC countries," MPRA Paper 78229, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item


    Optimal fiscal policy; cycles; agent-based economics.;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General


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