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Árfolyam-politika és inflációs cél követése Magyarországon
[Exchange-rate policy and inflation targeting in Hungary]

Author

Listed:
  • Erdős, Tibor

Abstract

Magyarországon 2001 óta inflációs célt követő rendszer van érvényben. Ez azt jelenti, hogy a monetáris politika hatására a fogyasztói árszintnek közép- és lehetőleg hosszú távon is rendszeresen stabilnak, legfeljebb csak lassan emelkedőnek kell lennie. Ez utóbbin az euróövezeten belül évi két százalékot közelítő áremelkedést kell érteni. Ha pedig a monetáris irányításnak már létező jelentős inflációval kell szembenéznie, az inflációs ráta évről évre történő számottevő csökkentésére kell törekedni. Ha az inflációt már sikerült alacsony értékre szorítani, a továbbiakban ezt tartósan ott kell tartani. Nem biztos azonban, hogy a monetáris politikának minden körülmények közt az inflációs cél követését kell választania. E politika hatása ugyanis akkor lehet kedvező, ha teljesül két fontos előfeltétel: az államháztartás egyensúlyhoz közeli állapota, valamint a nominális bérek igazodása a GDP növekedési üteméhez. Ha ezek nincsenek meg, az inflációs cél követése káros hatásokkal is jár: a nemzeti valuta túlzott reálfelértékelődése, a belső felhasználás többlete a GNP felett, a belső és külső államadósság növekedése, csökkenő irányzatú megtakarítási és beruházási ráta, kisebb növekedési potenciál. A szerző azt is vizsgálja, hogy a gazdaságpolitikát, ezen belül a monetáris politikát mi módon kell alakítani annak érdekében, hogy az inflációs cél követése jól alkalmazható és egyértelműen hatékony legyen.. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E58, E63, E64, F31, F32.

Suggested Citation

  • Erdős, Tibor, 2007. "Árfolyam-politika és inflációs cél követése Magyarországon [Exchange-rate policy and inflation targeting in Hungary]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 853-875.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:942
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John F. O. Bilson & Richard C. Marston, 1984. "Exchange Rate Theory and Practice," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bils84-1, March.
    2. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1980. "Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1, Tenth ), pages 143-206.
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • E64 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Incomes Policy; Price Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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