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Jelzáloghitel-törlesztés forintban és devizában - egyszerű modellek
[Servicing mortgage loans in forints and in foreign currency: simple models]

Author

Listed:
  • Simonovits, András
  • Király, Júlia

Abstract

A devizaalapú jelzáloghitelek néhány éves népszerűség után, a nemzetközi válság kitörését követően jelentős, nemegyszer elviselhetetlen terhet jelentettek a hitelfelvevőknek. Olyan egyszerű modellcsaládot állítunk fel, amely alkalmas a forint- és a devizaalapú jelzáloghitelek törlesztési és adósságpályáinak összehasonlítására és számos, a mai devizaalapú hitelek körüli viták szempontjából fontos tanulság levonására. Tanulmányunk megmutatja, hogy miért referencia a fedezetlen kamatparitásnak megfelelő leértékelődés melletti adósságpálya. Zárt képletben adjuk meg, hogy a devizaadós számára mi az átváltás az árfolyamromlás és az egyoldalú banki kamatemelés okozta hatás között. Egy egyszerű modell keretében kitérünk a forint-, illetve devizaalapú hitel optimális nagyságának meghatározására. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: C63, D14, G21.

Suggested Citation

  • Simonovits, András & Király, Júlia, 2015. "Jelzáloghitel-törlesztés forintban és devizában - egyszerű modellek [Servicing mortgage loans in forints and in foreign currency: simple models]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 1-26.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1531
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erdős, Tibor, 2010. "Forintárfolyam, kamatszint és devizaalapú eladósodás. Az árfolyam szerepéről [Forint exchange rates, interest levels and foreign currency-based debt. The role of the exchange rate]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 847-867.
    2. Lessard, Donald R. & Modigliani, Franco., 1975. "Inflation and the housing market : problems and potential solutions," Working papers 813-75., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    3. A. Bethlendi, 2011. "Policy measures and failures on foreign currency household lending in central and eastern Europe," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 61(2), pages 193-223, June.
    4. Stanley Fischer & Franco Modigliani, 1978. "Towards an understanding of the real effects and costs of inflation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 114(4), pages 810-833, December.
    5. Martin Brown & Ralph De Haas, 2012. "Foreign banks and foreign currency lending in emerging Europe [Capital structure and financial risk: evidence from foreign debt use in East Asia]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 27(69), pages 57-98.
    6. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hake, Mariya & Stix, Helmut, 2013. "Households’ foreign currency borrowing in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1880-1897.
    7. Paul A. Samuelson, 1937. "A Note on Measurement of Utility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 4(2), pages 155-161.
    8. Hudecz, András, 2012. "Párhuzamos történetek. A lakossági devizahitelezés kialakulása és kezelése Lengyelországban, Romániában és Magyarországon [Parallel stories. The development and treatment of household foreign-curre," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 349-411.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Schepp, Zoltán & Szabó, Zoltán, 2015. "Lakossági svájcifrank-hitelek árazása - narratíván innen és túl? [Pricing Swiss franc-denominated mortgage loans: beyond the narratives]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1140-1157.
    2. Dancsik, Bálint, 2017. "Számít-e a devizahiteles múlt?. A lakáshitelkamatok rögzítéséről szóló döntés vizsgálata mikroszintű adatokon [Analysing the decision of fixing housing loan interest rates on micro-level data: does," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 1030-1055.
    3. Vonnák, Dzsamila & Ongena, Steven & Schindele, Ibolya, 2017. "Monetáris politika és a bankok hitelkínálata. Vállalati adatokon alapuló elemzés [Monetary policy and bank-loan supply: evidence from firm-level analysis]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 217-237.
    4. Pásztor, Szabolcs & Kovács, Levente, 2018. "A globális jelzálogpiac helyzete és kihívásai [The state of global mortgage markets and the challenges to them]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1225-1256.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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