IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/transp/v48y2021i2d10.1007_s11116-019-10078-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling dynamics in household car ownership over life courses: a latent class competing risks model

Author

Listed:
  • Gaofeng Gu

    (Eindhoven University of Technology)

  • Tao Feng

    (Eindhoven University of Technology)

  • Dujuan Yang

    (Eindhoven University of Technology)

  • Harry Timmermans

    (Eindhoven University of Technology
    Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics)

Abstract

This study presents a latent class competing risks model to examine the influence of socio-demographics and life course events on car transaction behaviour. The types of car transaction and interval times between car transactions events are incorporated in a competing risk model. To capture unobserved behavioural heterogeneity across the population, the model classifies households into different segments. Results estimated based on retrospective survey data show significant heterogeneity exist in household car ownership decisions. The covariates are found to have different effects on car ownership decisions between different classes. Households in the class labelled “Young households without a car” are more sensitive to life course events related to household composition. Households labelled as “middle-aged and aged households with car(s)” are more sensitive to life course events related to job and house locations.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaofeng Gu & Tao Feng & Dujuan Yang & Harry Timmermans, 2021. "Modeling dynamics in household car ownership over life courses: a latent class competing risks model," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 809-829, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:48:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11116-019-10078-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-019-10078-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11116-019-10078-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11116-019-10078-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Soora Rasouli & Harry Timmermans, 2014. "Activity-based models of travel demand: promises, progress and prospects," International Journal of Urban Sciences, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 31-60, March.
    2. Pau Baizán & Arnstein Aassve & Francesco C. Billari, 2003. "Cohabitation, Marriage, and First Birth: The Interrelationship of Family Formation Events in Spain," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 147-169, June.
    3. Guo, Zhan, 2013. "Does residential parking supply affect household car ownership? The case of New York City," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 18-28.
    4. Sharmeen, Fariya & Arentze, Theo & Timmermans, Harry, 2014. "An analysis of the dynamics of activity and travel needs in response to social network evolution and life-cycle events: A structural equation model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 159-171.
    5. Guerra, Erick, 2015. "The geography of car ownership in Mexico City: a joint model of households’ residential location and car ownership decisions," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 171-180.
    6. Abu Toasin Oakil & Dorien Manting & Hans Nijland, 2018. "The role of individual characteristics in car ownership shortly after relationship dissolution," Transportation, Springer, vol. 45(6), pages 1871-1882, November.
    7. Bhat, Chandra R., 1996. "A hazard-based duration model of shopping activity with nonparametric baseline specification and nonparametric control for unobserved heterogeneity," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 189-207, June.
    8. J. Heckman & B. Singer, 1984. "The Identifiability of the Proportional Hazard Model," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 51(2), pages 231-241.
    9. Oakil, Abu Toasin Md & Manting, Dorien & Nijland, Hans, 2016. "Determinants of car ownership among young households in the Netherlands: The role of urbanisation and demographic and economic characteristics," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 229-235.
    10. Taha Rashidi & Abolfazl Mohammadian & Frank Koppelman, 2011. "Modeling interdependencies between vehicle transaction, residential relocation and job change," Transportation, Springer, vol. 38(6), pages 909-932, November.
    11. Lee, Backjin & Timmermans, Harry J.P., 2007. "A latent class accelerated hazard model of activity episode durations," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 426-447, May.
    12. Peter T.L. Popkowski Leszczyc & Harry Timmermans, 2002. "Unconditional and conditional competing risk models of activity duration and activity sequencing decisions: An empirical comparison," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 157-170, June.
    13. Han, Aaron & Hausman, Jerry A, 1990. "Flexible Parametric Estimation of Duration and Competing Risk Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 1-28, January-M.
    14. Abu Oakil & Dick Ettema & Theo Arentze & Harry Timmermans, 2014. "Changing household car ownership level and life cycle events: an action in anticipation or an action on occurrence," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 889-904, July.
    15. Jong, Gerard De, 1996. "A disaggregate model system of vehicle holding duration, type choice and use," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 263-276, August.
    16. Yamamoto, Toshiyuki & Madre, Jean-Loup & Kitamura, Ryuichi, 2004. "An analysis of the effects of French vehicle inspection program and grant for scrappage on household vehicle transaction," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 905-926, December.
    17. Chen, Cynthia & Niemeier, Debbie, 2005. "A mass point vehicle scrappage model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 401-415, June.
    18. Yamamoto, Toshiyuki & Kitamura, Ryuichi, 2000. "An analysis of household vehicle holding durations considering intended holding durations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 339-351, June.
    19. Abu Toasin Oakil & Dorien Manting & Hans Nijland, 2018. "Correction to: The role of individual characteristics in car ownership shortly after relationship dissolution," Transportation, Springer, vol. 45(6), pages 1883-1883, November.
    20. Ben Clark & Kiron Chatterjee & Steve Melia, 2016. "Changes in level of household car ownership: the role of life events and spatial context," Transportation, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 565-599, July.
    21. Potoglou, Dimitris & Kanaroglou, Pavlos S., 2008. "Modelling car ownership in urban areas: a case study of Hamilton, Canada," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 42-54.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tian, Zhihui & Feng, Tao & Yao, Baozhen & Hu, Yan & Zhang, Jing, 2023. "Where to park an autonomous vehicle? Results of a stated choice experiment," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert Kudłak & Wojciech Kisiała & Bartłomiej Kołsut, 2023. "Determinanty posiadania samochodu w Polsce: wyniki modelowania w ujęciu przestrzennym w latach 2005 i 2019," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 2, pages 152-173.
    2. Lee, Backjin & Timmermans, Harry J.P., 2007. "A latent class accelerated hazard model of activity episode durations," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 426-447, May.
    3. Zhao, Pengjun & Bai, Yu, 2019. "The gap between and determinants of growth in car ownership in urban and rural areas of China: A longitudinal data case study," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-1.
    4. Tai-Yu Ma & Iragaël Joly & Charles Raux, 2010. "A shared frailty semi-parametric markov renewal model for travel and activity time-use pattern analysis," Working Papers hal-00477695, HAL.
    5. Wang, Xiaoquan & Yin, Chaoying & Zhang, Junyi & Shao, Chunfu & Wang, Shengyou, 2021. "Nonlinear effects of residential and workplace built environment on car dependence," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    6. Zhao, Pengjun & Zhang, Yixue, 2018. "Travel behaviour and life course: Examining changes in car use after residential relocation in Beijing," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 41-53.
    7. Matsumoto, Shigeru & Iwata, Kazuyuki, 2019. "Do environmental rebates affect the replacement of durable products? An analysis of vehicle ownership duration in Japan," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 64-72.
    8. Jukka Heinonen & Michał Czepkiewicz & Áróra Árnadóttir & Juudit Ottelin, 2021. "Drivers of Car Ownership in a Car-Oriented City: A Mixed-Method Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-26, January.
    9. Tai-Yu Ma & Charles Raux & Eric Cornelis & Iragaël Joly, 2009. "multi-state non-homogeneous semi-markov model of daily activity type, timing and duration sequence," Post-Print halshs-00310900, HAL.
    10. Chen, Cynthia & Niemeier, Debbie, 2005. "A mass point vehicle scrappage model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 401-415, June.
    11. Cynthia Chen & Jason Chen, 2009. "What is responsible for the response lag of a significant change in discretionary time use: the built environment, family and social obligations, temporal constraints, or a psychological delay factor?," Transportation, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 27-46, January.
    12. Guan, Xiaodong & Wang, Donggen, 2020. "The multiplicity of self-selection: What do travel attitudes influence first, residential location or work place?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    13. Leslie Belton Chevallier & Joseph Cacciari & Anne Aguiléra, 2023. "Demotorization and Space: The Influence of Spatial Factors on Car-Dependency Reduction in France," Urban Planning, Cogitatio Press, vol. 8(3), pages 6-13.
    14. Ha, Tran Vinh & Asada, Takumi & Arimura, Mikiharu, 2019. "Determination of the influence factors on household vehicle ownership patterns in Phnom Penh using statistical and machine learning methods," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 70-86.
    15. Yamamoto, Toshiyuki & Madre, Jean-Loup & Kitamura, Ryuichi, 2004. "An analysis of the effects of French vehicle inspection program and grant for scrappage on household vehicle transaction," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 905-926, December.
    16. Hankach, Pierre & Gastineau, Pascal & Vandanjon, Pierre-Olivier, 2022. "Multi-scale spatial analysis of household car ownership using distance-based Moran's eigenvector maps: Case study in Loire-Atlantique (France)," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    17. Scheiner, Joachim, 2020. "Changes in travel mode use over the life course with partner interactions in couple households," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 791-807.
    18. Mitra, Suman K. & Saphores, Jean-Daniel M., 2017. "Carless in California: Green choice or misery?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-12.
    19. Laborda, Juan & Moral, María J., 2019. "Scrappage by age: Cash for Clunkers matters!," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 488-504.
    20. Rashidi, Taha Hossein & Mohammadian, Abolfazl (Kouros), 2011. "A dynamic hazard-based system of equations of vehicle ownership with endogenous long-term decision factors incorporating group decision making," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1072-1080.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:48:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11116-019-10078-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.