IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/rqfnac/v58y2022i1d10.1007_s11156-021-00988-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

CEO career concerns and the precision of management earnings forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Kexing Ding

    (Southwestern University of Finance and Economics)

  • Bikki Jaggi

    (Rutgers Business School, Newark-New Brunswick)

Abstract

We extend the research on how CEOs address career concerns during their early tenure in firms and we argue that CEOs use a forecast precision strategy to highlight or obfuscate information in a way that may help them convey favorable signals on their abilities. Our findings show that new CEOs are more likely to increase forecast precision when the underlying forecast news is better to highlight positive signals and they will obfuscate more negative news by lowering forecast precision to moderate investors’ negative reaction. Additionally, our results show that CEOs especially use this approach when firms are headquartered in the states that have stricter enforceability of non-compete clauses. We also find that the association between forecast precision and forecast news is stronger when institutional monitoring is weak, CEOs are young, and/or hired from outside the firm. Our main findings remain unchanged when only quarterly forecasts are used in the analyses and are robust to different early tenure cutoffs.

Suggested Citation

  • Kexing Ding & Bikki Jaggi, 2022. "CEO career concerns and the precision of management earnings forecasts," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 69-100, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:58:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s11156-021-00988-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-021-00988-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11156-021-00988-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11156-021-00988-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Strong, John S & Meyer, John R, 1987. "Asset Writedowns: Managerial Incentives and Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 643-661, July.
    2. Sidney Finkelstein & Donald C. Hambrick, 1988. "Chief executive compensation: A synthesis and reconciliation," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(6), pages 543-558, November.
    3. Skinner, Dj, 1994. "Why Firms Voluntarily Disclose Bad-News," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 38-60.
    4. Philippe Aghion & John Van Reenen & Luigi Zingales, 2013. "Innovation and Institutional Ownership," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(1), pages 277-304, February.
    5. Stephen P. Baginski & John M. Hassell & Michael D. Kimbrough, 2004. "Why Do Managers Explain Their Earnings Forecasts?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 1-29, March.
    6. Suil Pae & Chang Joon Song & Andrew C. Yi, 2016. "Career Concerns and Management Earnings Guidance," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(3), pages 1172-1198, September.
    7. Kim, O & Verrecchia, Re, 1991. "Trading Volume And Price Reactions To Public Announcements," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 302-321.
    8. Peter Demerjian & Baruch Lev & Sarah McVay, 2012. "Quantifying Managerial Ability: A New Measure and Validity Tests," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(7), pages 1229-1248, July.
    9. Mark J. Garmaise, 2011. "Ties that Truly Bind: Noncompetition Agreements, Executive Compensation, and Firm Investment," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 376-425.
    10. Bengt Holmstrom, 1982. "Moral Hazard in Teams," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 13(2), pages 324-340, Autumn.
    11. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Rajgopal, Shiva, 2005. "The economic implications of corporate financial reporting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-3), pages 3-73, December.
    12. Francois Brochet & Lucile Faurel & Sarah Mcvay, 2011. "Manager‐Specific Effects on Earnings Guidance: An Analysis of Top Executive Turnovers," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(5), pages 1123-1162, December.
    13. Andrew B. Jackson & Gerry Gallery & Maria C. A. Balatbat & Steven Cahan, 2015. "The impact of litigation risk on the strategic timing of management earnings forecasts," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 55(2), pages 467-495, June.
    14. Dirk Jenter & Fadi Kanaan, 2015. "CEO Turnover and Relative Performance Evaluation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 2155-2184, October.
    15. Bok Baik & David B. Farber & Sam (Sunghan) Lee, 2011. "CEO Ability and Management Earnings Forecasts," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(5), pages 1645-1668, December.
    16. Yinghua Li & Liandong Zhang, 2015. "Short Selling Pressure, Stock Price Behavior, and Management Forecast Precision: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 79-117, March.
    17. Amy P. Hutton & Gregory S. Miller & Douglas J. Skinner, 2003. "The Role of Supplementary Statements with Management Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 867-890, December.
    18. Gibbons, Robert & Murphy, Kevin J, 1992. "Optimal Incentive Contracts in the Presence of Career Concerns: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(3), pages 468-505, June.
    19. DeAngelo, Linda Elizabeth, 1988. "Managerial competition, information costs, and corporate governance : The use of accounting performance measures in proxy contests," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 3-36, January.
    20. Ali, Ashiq & Zhang, Weining, 2015. "CEO tenure and earnings management," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 60-79.
    21. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    22. Bipin Ajinkya & Sanjeev Bhojraj & Partha Sengupta, 2005. "The Association between Outside Directors, Institutional Investors and the Properties of Management Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 343-376, June.
    23. Bushee, BJ & Noe, CF, 2000. "Corporate disclosure practices, institutional investors, and stock return volatility," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38, pages 171-202.
    24. Jayant R. Kale & Ebru Reis & Anand Venkateswaran, 2009. "Rank‐Order Tournaments and Incentive Alignment: The Effect on Firm Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1479-1512, June.
    25. Fama, Eugene F, 1980. "Agency Problems and the Theory of the Firm," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(2), pages 288-307, April.
    26. Verrecchia, Robert E., 2001. "Essays on disclosure," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-3), pages 97-180, December.
    27. Qiang Cheng & Kin Lo, 2006. "Insider Trading and Voluntary Disclosures," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5), pages 815-848, December.
    28. Paul Hribar & Holly Yang, 2016. "CEO Overconfidence and Management Forecasting," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(1), pages 204-227, March.
    29. Tang, Michael & Zarowin, Paul & Zhang, Li, 2015. "How do analysts interpret management range forecasts?," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 48-66.
    30. Amy P. Hutton & Lian Fen Lee & Susan Z. Shu, 2012. "Do Managers Always Know Better? The Relative Accuracy of Management and Analyst Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(5), pages 1217-1244, December.
    31. Scott Richardson & Siew Hong Teoh & Peter D. Wysocki, 2004. "The Walk†down to Beatable Analyst Forecasts: The Role of Equity Issuance and Insider Trading Incentives," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(4), pages 885-924, December.
    32. Hughes, J.S.John S. & Pae, Suil, 2004. "Voluntary disclosure of precision information," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 261-289, June.
    33. John M. Hassell & Robert H. Jennings & Dennis J. Lasser, 1988. "Management Earnings Forecasts: Their Usefulness As A Source Of Firm-Specific Information To Security Analysts," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 11(4), pages 303-319, December.
    34. Healy, Paul M. & Palepu, Krishna G., 2001. "Information asymmetry, corporate disclosure, and the capital markets: A review of the empirical disclosure literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 405-440, September.
    35. D. Eric Hirst & Lisa Koonce & Shankar Venkataraman, 2007. "How Disaggregation Enhances the Credibility of Management Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 811-837, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anna Agapova & Jagadison K. Aier & Zhanel DeVides, 2022. "Earnings patterns and managerial guidance," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1173-1213, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lamia Chourou & Luo He & Ligang Zhong, 2020. "Does religiosity enhance the quality of management earnings forecasts?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(7-8), pages 910-948, July.
    2. Inder K. Khurana & Yinghua Li & Wei Wang, 2018. "The Effects of Hedge Fund Interventions on Strategic Firm Behavior," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(9), pages 4094-4117, September.
    3. Ling Tuo & Ji Yu & Yu Zhang, 2020. "How do industry peers influence individual firms’ voluntary disclosure strategies?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 911-956, April.
    4. Ting Zhang & So Yean Kwack & Yi Si & Gaoliang Tian, 2023. "Non‐GAAP earnings reporting following going‐concern opinions," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(3), pages 3217-3252, September.
    5. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    6. Chronopoulos, Panagiotis I. & Siougle, Georgia, 2018. "Examination of the information content of management range forecasts," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 201-210.
    7. Yang, Xiaohui & Chen, Wei, 2021. "The joint effects of macroeconomic uncertainty and cyclicality on management and analyst earnings forecasts," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    8. Claude Francoeur & Yuntian Li & Zvi Singer & Jing Zhang, 2023. "Earnings forecasts of female CEOs: quality and consequences," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 1721-1764, September.
    9. Cohen, Lee Jeremy & Marcus, Alan J. & Rezaee, Zabihollah & Tehranian, Hassan, 2018. "Waiting for guidance: Disclosure noise, verification delay, and the value-relevance of good-news versus bad-news management earnings forecasts," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 79-99.
    10. Hurwitz, Helen, 2017. "The understatement of large negative earnings news in managers’ annual guidance," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 119-133.
    11. Sung, Hao-Chang & Ho, Shirley J., 2023. "Disclosure strategies for management earnings forecasts: The role of managerial compensation structures, overoptimism, and effort," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1).
    12. Han, Jun, 2013. "A literature synthesis of experimental studies on management earnings guidance," Journal of Accounting Literature, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 49-70.
    13. Youngdeok Lim & Hyung Il Oh, 2022. "Do Firms Learn from Pre‐announcement Experience? Evidence from Optimistic Pre‐announcements and Market Responses," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 58(2), pages 365-392, June.
    14. Ertimur, Yonca & Sletten, Ewa & Sunder, Jayanthi, 2014. "Large shareholders and disclosure strategies: Evidence from IPO lockup expirations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 79-95.
    15. Rogers, Jonathan L. & Van Buskirk, Andrew, 2013. "Bundled forecasts in empirical accounting research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 43-65.
    16. Stephan Hollander & Maarten Pronk & Erik Roelofsen, 2010. "Does Silence Speak? An Empirical Analysis of Disclosure Choices During Conference Calls," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3), pages 531-563, June.
    17. Thorsten Knauer & Christian Ledwig & Andreas Wömpener, 2012. "Zur Wertrelevanz freiwilliger Managementprognosen in Deutschland," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 166-204, March.
    18. S. P. Kothari & Susan Shu & Peter D. Wysocki, 2009. "Do Managers Withhold Bad News?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 241-276, March.
    19. Yinghua Li & Liandong Zhang, 2015. "Short Selling Pressure, Stock Price Behavior, and Management Forecast Precision: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 79-117, March.
    20. David A. Maslar & Matthew Serfling & Sarah Shaikh, 2021. "Economic Downturns and the Informativeness of Management Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1520, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecast Precisions; Non-compete clause; Career concerns; Management earnings Forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:58:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s11156-021-00988-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.