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Post-merger Price Dynamics Matters, So Why Do Merger Retrospectives Ignore It?

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  • Franco Mariuzzo

    (University of East Anglia)

  • Peter L. Ormosi

    (University of East Anglia)

Abstract

The overwhelming majority of retrospective merger studies pool the post-merger data to estimate the average price effect of the merger. Pooled post-merger estimates ignore key information about price dynamics and are unable to identify if post-merger prices revert to pre-merger levels within the same time period. We provide evidence—from a meta-analysis of over 600 previous market-level price effect estimates, and a set of Monte Carlo experiments—that using pooled models often leads to erroneous conclusions: for example by wrongly concluding that the merger increased prices, even when this price increase was only temporary.

Suggested Citation

  • Franco Mariuzzo & Peter L. Ormosi, 2019. "Post-merger Price Dynamics Matters, So Why Do Merger Retrospectives Ignore It?," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 55(3), pages 403-429, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:revind:v:55:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s11151-019-09719-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11151-019-09719-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Stephen Martin, 2019. "Economies as an Antitrust Defense: The Welfare Tradeoffs—Introduction to the Special Issue," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 55(3), pages 327-338, November.
    2. Thierry Blayac & Patrice Bougette, 2023. "What can be Expected from Mergers After Deregulation? The Case of the Long-Distance Bus Industry in France," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 62(1), pages 63-97, February.
    3. Franco Mairuzzo & Peter Ormosi, 2022. "Do the poor pay more for increasing market concentration? A study of retail petroleum," Working Paper series, University of East Anglia, Centre for Competition Policy (CCP) 2021-08, Centre for Competition Policy, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    4. Patrice Bougette & Oliver Budzinski & Frédéric Marty, 2023. "In the Light of Dynamic Competition: Should We Make Merger Remedies More Flexible?," Working Papers AFED 23-01, Association Francaise d'Economie du Droit (AFED).
    5. Le, Huubinh B. & Yimga, Jules O., 2023. "Codeshare restrictions as antitrust remedy," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 17-24.
    6. Stöhr, Annika, 2021. "Price effects of horizontal mergers: A retrospective on retrospectives," Ilmenau Economics Discussion Papers 151, Ilmenau University of Technology, Institute of Economics.
    7. Bennato, Anna Rita & Davies, Stephen & Mariuzzo, Franco & Ormosi, Peter, 2021. "Mergers and innovation: Evidence from the hard disk drive market," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

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