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Multiparty Electoral Competition in the Netherlands and Germany: A Model Based on Multinomial Probit

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  • Schofield, Normal
  • Martin, Andrew D.
  • Quinn, Kevin M.
  • Whitford, Andrew B.

Abstract

A typical assumption of electoral models of party competition is that parties adopt policy positions so as to maximize expected vote share. Here the authors use Euro-barometer survey data and European elite-study data from 1979 for the Netherlands and Germany to construct a stochastic model of voter response, based on multinomial probit estimation. For each of these countries, they estimate a pure spatial electoral voting model and a joint spatial model. The latter model also includes individual voter and demographic characteristics. The pure spatial models for the two countries quite accurately described the electoral response as a stochastic function of party positions. The authors use these models to perform a thought experiment so as to estimate the expected vote maximizing party positions. They go on to propose a model of internal party decision-making based both on preelection electoral estimation and postelection coalition bargaining. This model suggests why the various parties in the period in question did not adopt vote maximizing positions. The authors argue that maximizing expected vote will not, in general, be a rational party strategy in multiparty political systems which are based on proportional representation. Coauthors are Andrew D. Martin, Kevin M. Quinn, and Andrew B. Whitford. Copyright 1998 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Schofield, Normal & Martin, Andrew D. & Quinn, Kevin M. & Whitford, Andrew B., 1998. "Multiparty Electoral Competition in the Netherlands and Germany: A Model Based on Multinomial Probit," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 97(3), pages 257-293, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:97:y:1998:i:3:p:257-93
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    Cited by:

    1. T. Groseclose, 2007. "‘One and a Half Dimensional’ Preferences and Majority Rule," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 28(2), pages 321-335, February.
    2. Michael Peress, 2010. "The spatial model with non-policy factors: a theory of policy-motivated candidates," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 34(2), pages 265-294, February.
    3. Chun-Ping Chang & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2017. "The Effect of Government Ideology on an Exchange Rate Regime: Some International Evidence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 788-834, April.
    4. Zakharov, Alexei & Fantazzini, Dean, 2009. "Economic Factors in a Model of Voting: The Case of The Netherlands, Great Britain, and Israel," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 14(2), pages 57-73.
    5. Wagner Antonio Kamakura, 2016. "Using Voter-choice Modeling to Plan Final Campaigns in Runoff Elections," RAC - Revista de Administração Contemporânea (Journal of Contemporary Administration), ANPAD - Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração, vol. 20(6), pages 753-776.
    6. Paap, Richard & van Nierop, Erjen & van Heerde, Harald J. & Wedel, Michel & Franses, Philip Hans & Alsem, Karel Jan, 2005. "Consideration sets, intentions and the inclusion of "don't know" in a two-stage model for voter choice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 53-71.
    7. Michael Peress, 2011. "Securing the base: electoral competition under variable turnout," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 87-104, July.
    8. Leonardo Grilli & Maria Iannario & Domenico Piccolo & Carla Rampichini, 2014. "Latent class CUB models," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 8(1), pages 105-119, March.
    9. Norman Schofield, 2003. "Valence Competition in the Spatial Stochastic Model," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 15(4), pages 371-383, October.
    10. William Reed, 2003. "Information and Economic Interdependence," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 47(1), pages 54-71, February.
    11. Jones, Philip & Dawson, Peter, 2007. "`Choice' in collective decision-making processes: Instrumental or expressive approval?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 102-117, February.
    12. Christopher Hare & Keith T. Poole, 2015. "Measuring ideology in Congress," Chapters, in: Jac C. Heckelman & Nicholas R. Miller (ed.), Handbook of Social Choice and Voting, chapter 18, pages 327-346, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Norman Schofield & Gary Miller & Andrew Martin, 2003. "Critical Elections and Political Realignments in the USA: 1860–2000," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 51(2), pages 217-240, June.
    14. Schofield, Norman & Parks, Robert, 2000. "Nash equilibrium in a spatial model of coalition bargaining," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 133-174, March.
    15. McKelvey, Richard D. & Patty, John W., 2006. "A theory of voting in large elections," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 155-180, October.
    16. James F. Adams & Ernest W. Adams, 2000. "The Geometry of Voting Cycles," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 12(2), pages 131-153, April.
    17. Christopher J. Williams & John Ishiyama, 2022. "How voter distributions, issue ownership, and position influence party emphasis," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1084-1100, September.
    18. Narwa, Daniel, 2001. "How general should the proximity model be?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 53-74, March.
    19. Maria Gallego & Norman Schofield & Kevin McAlister & Jee Jeon, 2014. "The variable choice set logit model applied to the 2004 Canadian election," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 427-463, March.
    20. Kenneth Benoit & Michael Laver, 2005. "Mapping the Irish Policy Space - Voter and Party Spaces in Preferential Elections," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 36(2), pages 83-108.
    21. Ken Benoit & Michael Laver, 2005. "Mapping the Irish Policy Space:Voter and Party Spaces in Preferential," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp82, IIIS.

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