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Multiparty Electoral Competition in the Netherlands and Germany: A Model Based on Multinomial Probit

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  • Schofield, Normal
  • Martin, Andrew D.
  • Quinn, Kevin M.
  • Whitford, Andrew B.

Abstract

A typical assumption of electoral models of party competition is that parties adopt policy positions so as to maximize expected vote share. Here the authors use Euro-barometer survey data and European elite-study data from 1979 for the Netherlands and Germany to construct a stochastic model of voter response, based on multinomial probit estimation. For each of these countries, they estimate a pure spatial electoral voting model and a joint spatial model. The latter model also includes individual voter and demographic characteristics. The pure spatial models for the two countries quite accurately described the electoral response as a stochastic function of party positions. The authors use these models to perform a thought experiment so as to estimate the expected vote maximizing party positions. They go on to propose a model of internal party decision-making based both on preelection electoral estimation and postelection coalition bargaining. This model suggests why the various parties in the period in question did not adopt vote maximizing positions. The authors argue that maximizing expected vote will not, in general, be a rational party strategy in multiparty political systems which are based on proportional representation. Coauthors are Andrew D. Martin, Kevin M. Quinn, and Andrew B. Whitford. Copyright 1998 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Schofield, Normal & Martin, Andrew D. & Quinn, Kevin M. & Whitford, Andrew B., 1998. "Multiparty Electoral Competition in the Netherlands and Germany: A Model Based on Multinomial Probit," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 97(3), pages 257-293, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:97:y:1998:i:3:p:257-93
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Leonardo Grilli & Maria Iannario & Domenico Piccolo & Carla Rampichini, 2014. "Latent class CUB models," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 8(1), pages 105-119, March.
    2. T. Groseclose, 2007. "‘One and a Half Dimensional’ Preferences and Majority Rule," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 28(2), pages 321-335, February.
    3. Jones, Philip & Dawson, Peter, 2007. "`Choice' in collective decision-making processes: Instrumental or expressive approval?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 102-117, February.
    4. Michael Peress, 2010. "The spatial model with non-policy factors: a theory of policy-motivated candidates," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 34(2), pages 265-294, February.
    5. Christopher Hare & Keith T. Poole, 2015. "Measuring ideology in Congress," Chapters,in: Handbook of Social Choice and Voting, chapter 18, pages 327-346 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Schofield, Norman & Parks, Robert, 2000. "Nash equilibrium in a spatial model of coalition bargaining," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 133-174, March.
    7. McKelvey, Richard D. & Patty, John W., 2006. "A theory of voting in large elections," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 155-180, October.
    8. repec:bla:worlde:v:40:y:2017:i:4:p:788-834 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Zakharov, Alexei & Fantazzini, Dean, 2009. "Economic Factors in a Model of Voting: The Case of The Netherlands, Great Britain, and Israel," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 14(2), pages 57-73.
    10. Narwa, Daniel, 2001. "How general should the proximity model be?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 53-74, March.
    11. Maria Gallego & Norman Schofield & Kevin McAlister & Jee Jeon, 2014. "The variable choice set logit model applied to the 2004 Canadian election," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 427-463, March.
    12. Kenneth Benoit & Michael Laver, 2005. "Mapping the Irish Policy Space - Voter and Party Spaces in Preferential Elections," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 36(2), pages 83-108.
    13. Paap, Richard & van Nierop, Erjen & van Heerde, Harald J. & Wedel, Michel & Franses, Philip Hans & Alsem, Karel Jan, 2005. "Consideration sets, intentions and the inclusion of "don't know" in a two-stage model for voter choice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 53-71.
    14. Michael Peress, 2011. "Securing the base: electoral competition under variable turnout," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 87-104, July.
    15. Ken Benoit & Michael Laver, 2005. "Mapping the Irish Policy Space:Voter and Party Spaces in Preferential," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp82, IIIS.

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