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Population dynamics in Germany: the role of immigration and population momentum


  • Barry Edmonston



The effects of changes in rates of mortality, fertility, and migration depend not only on the age-specific patterns and levels of these rates, but on the age structure of the population. In order to remove the influences of the age structure and concentrate on the effects of the demographic rates themselves, a common practice is to analyze the influences of the rates for a standard age structure. This paper analyzes current and future population changes in Germany, using a stationary population equivalent model (SPE) that shows long-term effects of current fertility, mortality, and international migration patterns. Results indicate that the German population will eventually decline because of below replacement fertility, if net immigration does not counteract this decrease. This means, for instance, that the long-term stationary population levels for Germany will decrease by approximately 6.5 million during a decade in which current fertility, mortality, and international migration levels prevail. The paper also reports how various other assumptions for mortality, fertility, and international migration affect the SPE model for Germany. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Barry Edmonston, 2006. "Population dynamics in Germany: the role of immigration and population momentum," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 25(5), pages 513-545, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:25:y:2006:i:5:p:513-545
    DOI: 10.1007/s11113-006-9011-8

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Thomas Espenshade & Leon Bouvier & W. Arthur, 1982. "Immigration and the stable population model," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 19(1), pages 125-133, February.
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