IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/popdev/v41y2015i1p109-126.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long-Term Contribution of Immigration to Population Renewal in Canada: A Simulation

Author

Listed:
  • Patrice Dion
  • Éric Caron-Malenfant
  • Chantal Grondin
  • Dominic Grenier

Abstract

type="main"> We analyze the direct and indirect demographic contribution of immigration to the foreign-origin composition of the Canadian population according to various projection scenarios over a century, from 2006 to 2106. More specifically, we use Statistics Canada's Demosim microsimulation model to assess the long-term sensitivity to immigration levels and the frequency of mixed unions of the share of immigrants in Canada and of persons who have at least one ancestor who arrived after 2006. The results of the simulations show that the population renewal process through immigration happens at a fast pace in a high immigration and low fertility country such as Canada. Under the scenarios developed, immigrants who entered after 2006 and their descendants could form the majority of the population by 2058 at the earliest and by 2079 at the latest and could represent between 62 percent and 88 percent in 2106. They also show that mixed unions are a key element of the speed at which the changes are likely to occur in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrice Dion & Éric Caron-Malenfant & Chantal Grondin & Dominic Grenier, 2015. "Long-Term Contribution of Immigration to Population Renewal in Canada: A Simulation," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(1), pages 109-126, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:41:y:2015:i:1:p:109-126
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2015.00028.x
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chris Wilson & Tomáš Sobotka & Lee Williamson & Paul Boyle, 2013. "Migration and Intergenerational Replacement in Europe," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(1), pages 131-157, March.
    2. David Coleman, 2006. "Immigration and Ethnic Change in Low‐Fertility Countries: A Third Demographic Transition," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 32(3), pages 401-446, September.
    3. Brian Duncan & Stephen J. Trejo, 2017. "The Complexity of Immigrant Generations: Implications for Assessing the Socioeconomic Integration of Hispanics and Asians," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 70(5), pages 1146-1175, October.
    4. Edmonston, Barry & Passel, Jeffrey S., 1992. "Immigration and immigrant generations in population projections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 459-476, November.
    5. Thomas Espenshade & Leon Bouvier & W. Arthur, 1982. "Immigration and the stable population model," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 19(1), pages 125-133, February.
    6. David Coleman, 2009. "Divergent Patterns in the Ethnic Transformation of Societies," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(3), pages 449-478, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oldrich Bures & Radka Klvanova & Robert Stojanov, 2020. "Strengths and Weaknesses of Canadian Express Entry System: Experts’ Perceptions," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 46(4), pages 787-812, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francesca Modena & Fabio Sabatini, 2012. "I would if I could: precarious employment and childbearing intentions in Italy," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 77-97, March.
    2. Samuel Vézina & Alain Bélanger, 2019. "Impacts of education and immigration on the size and skills of the future workforce," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(12), pages 331-366.
    3. Daniel Lichter, 2013. "Integration or Fragmentation? Racial Diversity and the American Future," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(2), pages 359-391, April.
    4. Tarvainen Kyösti, 2018. "Population projections for Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland, 2015–2065," Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, Sciendo, vol. 39(39), pages 147-160, March.
    5. Christos Bagavos, 2019. "On the multifaceted impact of migration on the fertility of receiving countries: Methodological insights and contemporary evidence for Europe, the United States, and Australia," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(1), pages 1-36.
    6. Sarah Harper, 2013. "Population–Environment Interactions: European Migration, Population Composition and Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 55(4), pages 525-541, August.
    7. F. Landis MacKellar & Geoffrey McNicoll, 2019. "International Migration: Approaches, Issues, Policies," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 45(4), December.
    8. Jon Anson, 2010. "Beyond Material Explanations: Family Solidarity and Mortality, a Small Area‐level Analysis," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(1), pages 27-45, March.
    9. Bredtmann, Julia & Höckel, Lisa Sofie & Otten, Sebastian, 2020. "The intergenerational transmission of gender role attitudes: Evidence from immigrant mothers-in-law," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 101-115.
    10. Bertoli, Simone & Clerc, Melchior & Loper, Jordan & Roca Fernández, Èric, 2025. "Migration and the epidemiological approach: Time and self-selection into foreign ancestries matter," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    11. Miguel González-Leonardo & Michaela Potančoková & Dilek Yildiz & Francisco Rowe, 2023. "Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 on immigration in receiving high-income countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(1), pages 1-11, January.
    12. Gustav Feichtinger & Dieter Grass & Maria Winkler-Dworak, 2020. "The mathematics of ageing:," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 28(2), pages 371-399, June.
    13. Timothy Riffe & Kieron J. Barclay & Sebastian Klüsener & Christina Bohk-Ewald, 2019. "Boom, echo, pulse, flow: 385 years of Swedish births," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2019-002, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    14. Francisca M. Antman & Brian Duncan & Stephen J. Trejo, 2020. "Ethnic attrition, assimilation, and the measured health outcomes of Mexican Americans," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1499-1522, October.
    15. Konrad B Burchardi & Thomas Chaney & Tarek A Hassan, 2019. "Migrants, Ancestors, and Foreign Investments," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(4), pages 1448-1486.
    16. Zhiqiang Feng & Paul Boyle & Maarten Ham & Gillian M. Raab, 2012. "Are Mixed-Ethnic Unions More Likely to Dissolve Than Co-Ethnic Unions? New Evidence from Britain [Les unions mixtes sont-elles plus fragiles que les unions entre partenaires de même origine ethniqu," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 28(2), pages 159-176, May.
    17. Daniela Craveiro & João Peixoto & Maria Cristina Sousa Gomes & Jorge Malheiros & Maria João Guardado Moreira & Isabel Tiago de Oliveira, 2019. "Back to replacement migration: A new European perspective applying the prospective-age concept," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 40(45), pages 1323-1344.
    18. Delia Furtado & Stephen J. Trejo, 2013. "Interethnic marriages and their economic effects," Chapters, in: Amelie F. Constant & Klaus F. Zimmermann (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Migration, chapter 15, pages 276-292, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Lisa Van Landschoot & Helga de Valk & Jan Van Bavel, 2014. "Estimating the contribution of mothers of foreign origin to total fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(12), pages 361-376.
    20. Yi Chen & Yingfei Huang, 2020. "The power of the government: China's Family Planning Leading Group and the fertility decline of the 1970s," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(35), pages 985-1038.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:41:y:2015:i:1:p:109-126. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0098-7921 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.