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Dominant Currencies and the Future of the Euro

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  • Michele Fratianni
  • Andreas Hauskrecht
  • Aurelio Maccario

Abstract

The paper's thesis is that the US dollar, despite the inevitable erosion of market share that it will suffer at the hands of the euro, will remain the most important international currency. The transaction domain of an international currency depends on its ability to lower transaction costs relative to alternative currencies. The EMU financial markets will not be as integrated, and thus as liquid, as the US financial markets for quite some time, thus favoring the use of the dollar as a medium of exchange. Inertia and reputational considerations further favor the dollar. The future value of the exchange rate dollar-euro will depend on economic fundamentals more than on portfolio shifts. Portfolio shifts argue for an appreciation of the euro; but fundamentals can swamp the effects of portfolio shifts. Should the EMU fundamentals reflect the spirit of the Maastricht Treaty and the Growth and Stability Pact, the chances for a euro appreciation will increase. Some caution, however, is in order because the ECB is a new and untested central bank where consensus for a conservative policy may be harder to achieve than can be gleaned from a literal reading of the Maastricht Treaty. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1998

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Fratianni & Andreas Hauskrecht & Aurelio Maccario, 1998. "Dominant Currencies and the Future of the Euro," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 467-492, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:9:y:1998:i:1:p:467-492
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1008312820408
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paolo Savona & Aurelio Maccario, 1998. "On the Relation between Money and Derivatives and its Application to the International Monetary Market," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 637-664, January.
    2. Richard Portes & Hélène Rey, 1998. "The emergence of the euro as an international currency," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 306-343.
    3. Elvio Dal Bosco, 1998. "Central Banks' Management of Foreign Exchange Reserves," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 665-684, January.
    4. Niehans, Jurg, 1971. "Money and Barter in General Equilibrium with Transaction Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(5), pages 773-783, December.
    5. Barry Eichengreen and Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1996. "On the SDR: Reserve Currencies and the Future of the International Monetary System," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C96-068, University of California at Berkeley.
    6. Rudi Dornbusch & Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 1998. "Immediate challenges for the European Central Bank," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 16-64.
    7. Dominick Salvatore, 1998. "International Monetary and Financial Arrangements: Present and Future," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 375-416, January.
    8. McCauley, R.N., 1997. "The Euro and the Dollar," Princeton Essays in International Economics 205, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    9. Fratianni, M., 1998. "Maxi vs Mini EMU: The Political Economy of Stage III," Papers 98-003, Indiana - Center for Econometric Model Research.
    10. Klein, Benjamin, 1974. "The Competitive Supply of Money," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 6(4), pages 423-453, November.
    11. Koichi Hamada, 1998. "The Choice of International Monetary Regimes in a Context of Repeated Games," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 417-446, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michele Fratianni & Dominick Salvatore & Paolo Savona, 1998. "Ideas for the Future of the International Monetary System: Conclusions and Remarks," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 689-700, January.
    2. Paolo Savona & Aurelio Maccario & Chiara Oldani, 2000. "On Monetary Analysis of Derivatives," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 149-175, August.
    3. Elvio Dal Bosco, 1998. "Central Banks' Management of Foreign Exchange Reserves," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 665-684, January.
    4. Pompeo Della Posta, 2005. "Fundamentals, International Role of Euro and 'Framing' of Expectations: What are the Determinants of the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate?," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 24, Departamento de Economia, Gestão e Engenharia Industrial, Universidade de Aveiro.
    5. Koichi Hamada, 1998. "The Choice of International Monetary Regimes in a Context of Repeated Games," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 417-446, January.
    6. Michele Fratianni & Andreas Hauskrecht, 1998. "From the Gold Standard to a Bipolar Monetary System," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 609-636, January.
    7. Alberto Predieri, 1998. "Money Markets and Poliarchic Democratic States," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 713-726, January.
    8. Forrest Capie, 1998. "Monetary Unions in Historical Perspective: What Future for the Euro in the International Financial System," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 447-466, January.
    9. Paolo Savona & Aurelio Maccario, 1998. "On the Relation between Money and Derivatives and its Application to the International Monetary Market," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 637-664, January.
    10. Pietro Alessandrini & Michele Fratianni, 2009. "International Monies, Special Drawing Rights, and Supernational Money," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 26, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    11. Dominick Salvatore, 1998. "International Monetary and Financial Arrangements: Present and Future," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 375-416, January.

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