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Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example

Author

Listed:
  • Baruch Fischhoff
  • Wändi Bruin
  • Ümit Güvenç
  • Denise Caruso
  • Larry Brilliant

Abstract

Narrative approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the variables critical to creating and controlling a risk, then to instantiate them in terms of coherent themes (e.g., organizational failure, strategic surprise). Computational approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the same critical variables, then to instantiate them in terms of their probability. Disaster risk analysis faces complex, novel processes that strain the capabilities of both approaches. We propose an approach that integrates elements of each, relying on what we call structured scenarios and computable models. It is illustrated by framing the analysis of plans for a possible avian flu pandemic. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Baruch Fischhoff & Wändi Bruin & Ümit Güvenç & Denise Caruso & Larry Brilliant, 2006. "Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 131-149, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:33:y:2006:i:1:p:131-149
    DOI: 10.1007/s11166-006-0175-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Morgan,M. Granger & Fischhoff,Baruch & Bostrom,Ann & Atman,Cynthia J., 2001. "Risk Communication," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521802239.
    2. Viscusi, W Kip & Aldy, Joseph E, 2003. "The Value of a Statistical Life: A Critical Review of Market Estimates throughout the World," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 5-76, August.
    3. Morgan,M. Granger & Fischhoff,Baruch & Bostrom,Ann & Atman,Cynthia J., 2001. "Risk Communication," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521002561.
    4. William J. Burns & Robert T. Clemen, 1993. "Covariance Structure Models and Influence Diagrams," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(7), pages 816-834, July.
    5. Martin P. Krayer von Krauss & Elizabeth A. Casman & Mitchell J. Small, 2004. "Elicitation of Expert Judgments of Uncertainty in the Risk Assessment of Herbicide‐Tolerant Oilseed Crops," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(6), pages 1515-1527, December.
    6. repec:reg:rpubli:282 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Citations

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Preparation > Crisis management
    2. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Preparation > Crisis management
    3. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Avian Influenza (H5N1)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nadine Strauß, 2021. "Communicating Sustainable Responsible Investments as Financial Advisors: Engaging Private Investors with Strategic Communication," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-18, March.
    2. Katarzyna Rostek & Michał Wiśniewski & Witold Skomra, 2022. "Analysis and Evaluation of Business Continuity Measures Employed in Critical Infrastructure during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-22, November.
    3. Matthew D. Wood & Ann Bostrom & Todd Bridges & Igor Linkov, 2012. "Cognitive Mapping Tools: Review and Risk Management Needs," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(8), pages 1333-1348, August.
    4. Wändi Bruine De Bruin & Ümit Güvenç & Baruch Fischhoff & Christopher M. Armstrong & Denise Caruso, 2009. "Communicating About Xenotransplantation: Models and Scenarios," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(8), pages 1105-1115, August.
    5. Durbach, Ian N. & Stewart, Theodor J., 2012. "Modeling uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 1-14.
    6. Krishnamurti, Tamar & Eggers, Sara L. & Fischhoff, Baruch, 2008. "The impact of over-the-counter availability of "Plan B" on teens' contraceptive decision making," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 67(4), pages 618-627, August.
    7. Baruch Fischhoff, 2011. "Applying the science of communication to the communication of science," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 701-705, October.
    8. Tianjun Feng & L. Robin Keller & Liangyan Wang & Yitong Wang, 2010. "Product Quality Risk Perceptions and Decisions: Contaminated Pet Food and Lead‐Painted Toys," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(10), pages 1572-1589, October.

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