IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/jgeosy/v16y2014i3p311-342.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Geosimulation of urban growth and demographic decline in the Ruhr: a case study for 2025 using the artificial intelligence of cells and agents

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas Rienow
  • Dirk Stenger

Abstract

The Ruhr is an “old acquaintance” in the discourse of urban decline in old industrialized cities. The agglomeration has to struggle with archetypical problems of former monofunctional manufacturing cities. Surprisingly, the image of a shrinking city has to be refuted if you shift the focus from socioeconomic wealth to its morphological extension. Thus, it is the objective of this study to meet the challenge of modeling urban sprawl and demographic decline by combining two artificial intelligent solutions: The popular urban cellular automaton SLEUTH simulates urban growth using four simple but effective growth rules. In order to improve its performance, SLEUTH has been modified among others by combining it with a robust probability map based on support vector machines. Additionally, a complex multi-agent system is developed to simulate residential mobility in a shrinking city agglomeration: residential mobility and the housing market of shrinking city systems focuses on the dynamic of interregional housing markets implying the development of potential dwelling areas. The multi-agent system comprises the simulation of population patterns, housing prices, and housing demand in shrinking city agglomerations. Both models are calibrated and validated regarding their localization and quantification performance. Subsequently, the urban landscape configuration and composition of the Ruhr 2025 are simulated. A simple spatial join is used to combine the results serving as valuable inputs for future regional planning in the context of multifarious demographic change and preceding urban growth. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Rienow & Dirk Stenger, 2014. "Geosimulation of urban growth and demographic decline in the Ruhr: a case study for 2025 using the artificial intelligence of cells and agents," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 311-342, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jgeosy:v:16:y:2014:i:3:p:311-342
    DOI: 10.1007/s10109-014-0196-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10109-014-0196-9
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10109-014-0196-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. R White & G Engelen, 1993. "Cellular Automata and Fractal Urban Form: A Cellular Modelling Approach to the Evolution of Urban Land-Use Patterns," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 25(8), pages 1175-1199, August.
    2. Helen Briassoulis, 2000. "Analysis of Land Use Change: Theoretical and Modeling Approaches," Wholbk, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University, number 17, November-.
    3. Heimpold, Gerhard & Ebert, M., 2012. "5. Konferenz „Analysen und Politik für Ostdeutschland – aus der Forschung des IWH“ – ein Bericht," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 18(2), pages 60-67.
    4. Oliver Arentz & Johann Eekhoff & Christine Arentz, 2010. "Zur Finanzmarktkrise: Die Rolle der Immobilienbewertung," IWP Discussion Paper Series 01/2010, Institute for Economic Policy, Cologne, Germany.
    5. repec:rri:bkchap:17 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luca Salvati & Giuseppe Venanzoni & Pere Serra & Margherita Carlucci, 2016. "Scattered or polycentric? Untangling urban growth in three southern European metropolitan regions through exploratory spatial data analysis," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 57(1), pages 1-29, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eda Ustaoglu & Carlo Lavalle, 2017. "Examining lag effects between industrial land development and regional economic changes: The Netherlands experience," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(9), pages 1-34, September.
    2. Nicolas Dendoncker & Mark Rounsevell & Patrick Bogaert, 2005. "Empirically Derived Suitability Maps to Downscale Aggregated Land Use Data," ERSA conference papers ersa05p59, European Regional Science Association.
    3. Nij Tontisirin & Sutee Anantsuksomsri, 2021. "Economic Development Policies and Land Use Changes in Thailand: From the Eastern Seaboard to the Eastern Economic Corridor," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-20, May.
    4. Babigumira, Ronnie & Angelsen, Arild & Buis, Maarten & Bauch, Simone & Sunderland, Terry & Wunder, Sven, 2014. "Forest Clearing in Rural Livelihoods: Household-Level Global-Comparative Evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 64(S1), pages 67-79.
    5. Kwok Hung Lau & Booi Hon Kam, 2005. "A Cellular Automata Model for Urban Land-Use Simulation," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 32(2), pages 247-263, April.
    6. Yang, Yuanyuan & Bao, Wenkai & Liu, Yansui, 2020. "Scenario simulation of land system change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    7. José I Barredo & Luca Demicheli & Carlo Lavalle & Marjo Kasanko & Niall McCormick, 2004. "Modelling Future Urban Scenarios in Developing Countries: An Application Case Study in Lagos, Nigeria," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 31(1), pages 65-84, February.
    8. Caruso, Geoffrey & Peeters, Dominique & Cavailhes, Jean & Rounsevell, Mark, 2007. "Spatial configurations in a periurban city. A cellular automata-based microeconomic model," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 542-567, September.
    9. Qing Shen & Feng Zhang, 2007. "Land-Use Changes in a Pro-Smart-Growth State: Maryland, USA," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 39(6), pages 1457-1477, June.
    10. C J Webster & F Wu, 1999. "Regulation, Land-Use Mix, and Urban Performance. Part 1: Theory," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 31(8), pages 1433-1442, August.
    11. Michel Opelele Omeno & Ying Yu & Wenyi Fan & Tolerant Lubalega & Chen Chen & Claude Kachaka Sudi Kaiko, 2021. "Analysis of the Impact of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change on Land-Surface Temperature in the Villages within the Luki Biosphere Reserve," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-23, October.
    12. M Batty & Y Xie, 1994. "From Cells to Cities," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 21(7), pages 31-48, December.
    13. repec:rre:publsh:v:33:y:2003:i:3:p:264-83 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Stephen M McCauley & John Rogan & James T Murphy & Billie L Turner & Samuel Ratick, 2015. "Modeling the Sociospatial Constraints on Land-Use Change: The Case of Periurban Sprawl in the Greater Boston Region," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 42(2), pages 221-241, April.
    15. Liu, Dongya & Zheng, Xinqi & Zhang, Chunxiao & Wang, Hongbin, 2017. "A new temporal–spatial dynamics method of simulating land-use change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 350(C), pages 1-10.
    16. Ricardo Ruiz & Bernardo Alves Furtado, 2007. "An Agent Based Model for Urban Structure: the case of Belo Horizonte - Brazil," EcoMod2007 23900079, EcoMod.
    17. Nerea Martín-Raya & Jaime Díaz-Pacheco & Abel López-Díez & Pedro Dorta Antequera & Amílcar Cabrera, 2023. "A lava flow simulation experience oriented to disaster risk reduction, early warning systems and response during the 2021 volcanic eruption in Cumbre Vieja, La Palma," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 3331-3351, July.
    18. Parker, Dawn Cassandra, 2007. "Revealing "space" in spatial externalities: Edge-effect externalities and spatial incentives," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 84-99, July.
    19. Eda Ustaoglu & Brendan Williams & Laura O. Petrov & Harutyun Shahumyan & Hedwig Van Delden, 2017. "Developing and Assessing Alternative Land-Use Scenarios from the MOLAND Model: A Scenario-Based Impact Analysis Approach for the Evaluation of Rapid Rail Provisions and Urban Development in the Greate," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-34, December.
    20. Yan Liu & Yongjiu Feng, 2016. "Simulating the Impact of Economic and Environmental Strategies on Future Urban Growth Scenarios in Ningbo, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-16, October.
    21. François Sémécurbe & Cécile Tannier & Stéphane G. Roux, 2019. "Applying two fractal methods to characterise the local and global deviations from scale invariance of built patterns throughout mainland France," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 271-293, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Urban growth; Demographic shrinkage; SLEUTH; ReHoSh; Residential mobility; Housing market; C60; R14; R21; R23; R31;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jgeosy:v:16:y:2014:i:3:p:311-342. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.