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Parameter Uncertainty in CGE Modeling of the Environmental Impacts of Economic Policies

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  • David Abler

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  • Adrián Rodríguez
  • James Shortle

Abstract

This study explores the role of parameter uncertainty in CGE modeling of the environmental impacts of macroeconomic and sectoral policies, using Costa Rica as a case for study. A CGE model is constructed which includes eight environmental indicators covering deforestation, pesticides, overfishing, hazardous wastes, inorganic wastes, organic wastes, greenhouse gases, and air pollution. The parameters are treated as random variables drawn from prespecified distributions. Evaluation of each policy option consists of a Monte Carlo experiment. The impacts of the policy options on the environmental indicators are relatively robust to different parameter values, in spite of the wide range of parameter values employed. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1999

Suggested Citation

  • David Abler & Adrián Rodríguez & James Shortle, 1999. "Parameter Uncertainty in CGE Modeling of the Environmental Impacts of Economic Policies," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 14(1), pages 75-94, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:14:y:1999:i:1:p:75-94
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1008362712759
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Christine Wieck & Simon W. Schlüter & Wolfgang Britz, 2012. "Assessment of the Impact of Avian Influenza–related Regulatory Policies on Poultry Meat Trade and Welfare," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(8), pages 1037-1052, August.
    2. Zachlod-Jelec, Magdalena & Boratynski, Jakub, 2016. "How large and uncertain are costs of 2030 GHG emissions reduction target for the European countries? Sensitivity analysis in a global CGE model," MF Working Papers 26, Ministry of Finance in Poland.
    3. Finnoff, David & Tschirhart, John, 2008. "Linking dynamic economic and ecological general equilibrium models," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 91-114, May.
    4. Yingying Lu & David I. Stern, 2016. "Substitutability and the Cost of Climate Mitigation Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 64(1), pages 81-107, May.
    5. Abler, David G. & Rodriguez, Adrian G. & Shortle, James S., 1998. "Labor force growth and the environment in Costa Rica," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 477-499, October.
    6. Fousseini Traoré, 2012. "Do global cotton subsidies affect the Malian economy? New evidence from a multimarket-general equilibrium model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1640-1652.
    7. Christine WIECK & Thomas I. WAHL, "undated". "The Modelling of an Open Regional Economy: Effects of Imports and Trade Liberalization," Regional and Urban Modeling 284100047, EcoMod.
    8. Abler, David G. & Shortle, James S. & Carmichael, Jeffrey J. & Horan, Richard D., 2001. "Climate Change, Agriculture, And Water Quality In The Chesapeake Bay Region," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20504, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    9. Jason J. Sharples & John C. V. Pezzey, 2005. "Expectations of linear functions with respect to truncazted multinormal distributions, with applications for uncertainty analysis in environmental modelling," Economics and Environment Network Working Papers 0503, Australian National University, Economics and Environment Network.
    10. Henning Tarp Jensen & Sherman Robinson & Finn Tarp, 2010. "Measuring Agricultural Policy Bias: General Equilibrium Analysis of Fifteen Developing Countries," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1136-1148.
    11. Joshua Elliott & Meredith Franklin & Ian Foster & Todd Munson & Margaret Loudermilk, 2012. "Propagation of Data Error and Parametric Sensitivity in Computable General Equilibrium Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 39(3), pages 219-241, March.
    12. Mark Partridge & Dan Rickman, 2010. "Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modelling for Regional Economic Development Analysis," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(10), pages 1311-1328.
    13. Bergman, Lars, 2005. "CGE Modeling of Environmental Policy and Resource Management," Handbook of Environmental Economics,in: K. G. Mäler & J. R. Vincent (ed.), Handbook of Environmental Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 24, pages 1273-1306 Elsevier.
    14. Christine Wieck & David Holland, 2010. "The economic effect of the Canadian BSE outbreak on the US economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(8), pages 935-946.
    15. Peter Berck & Sandra Hoffmann, 2002. "Assessing the Employment Impacts of Environmental and Natural Resource Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 22(1), pages 133-156, June.
    16. Horan, Richard D. & Claassen, Roger & Howe, Lance, 2001. "The Welfare Sensitivity Of Agri-Environmental Instruments," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(02), December.

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