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Assessing and predicting financial vulnerability of Italian households: a micro-macro approach

Author

Listed:
  • Alessandra Bettocchi

    (Prometeia)

  • Elena Giarda

    (Prometeia
    Cefin, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia)

  • Cristiana Moriconi

    (Prometeia)

  • Federica Orsini

    (Prometeia)

  • Rita Romeo

    (Prometeia)

Abstract

In this study we develop a micro-founded model to analyse the economic-financial conditions of Italian households. Using household level data, we build an indicator to identify vulnerable households based on their budget constraint and the composition of their financial portfolio. Then, we calculate the impact of the predicted trends of macroeconomic variables on the indicator in order to monitor its evolution in the short term (2015–2017). The empirical analysis is based on the Survey of Household Income and Wealth of the Bank of Italy and on a set of macroeconomic forecasts. Our findings suggest that the macroeconomic scenario for the period 2015–2017 implies a progressive reduction in the percentage of vulnerable households for the full extent of the projection.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandra Bettocchi & Elena Giarda & Cristiana Moriconi & Federica Orsini & Rita Romeo, 2018. "Assessing and predicting financial vulnerability of Italian households: a micro-macro approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 587-605, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:45:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10663-017-9378-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10663-017-9378-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Giovanni D’Alessio & Stefano Iezzi, 2013. "Household over-indebtedness - Definition and measurement with Italian data," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the Sixth IFC Conference on "Statistical issues and activities in a changing environment", Basel, 28-29 August 2012., volume 36, pages 496-517, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Ampudia, Miguel & van Vlokhoven, Has & Żochowski, Dawid, 2016. "Financial fragility of euro area households," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 250-262.
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    10. Orla May & Merxe Tudela, 2005. "When is mortgage indebtedness a financial burden to British households? A dynamic probit approach," Bank of England working papers 277, Bank of England.
    11. Nicolas Albacete & Peter Lindner, 2013. "Household Vulnerability in Austria – A Microeconomic Analysis Based on the Household Finance and Consumption Survey," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 25, pages 57-73.
    12. Ivan Faiella, 2008. "Accounting for sampling design in the SHIW," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 662, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Grzegorz Wałęga & Agnieszka Wałęga, 2021. "Over-indebted Households in Poland: Classification Tree Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 153(2), pages 561-584, January.
    3. Marianna Brunetti & Elena Giarda & Costanza Torricelli, 2020. "Financial Fragility across Europe and the US: The Role of Portfolio Choices, Household Features and Economic-institutional Setup," CEIS Research Paper 487, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 28 May 2020.
    4. Giordana, Gastón & Ziegelmeyer, Michael, 2020. "Stress testing household balance sheets in Luxembourg," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 115-138.
    5. Marco Brandolini & Federica Coroneo & Elena Giarda & Cristiana Moriconi & Sarah Grace See, 2022. "Differences in Perceptions of the Housing Cost Burden Among European Countries," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 12(4), pages 1-5.
    6. Dang, Chao & Chen, Xinyang & Yu, Shengjie & Chen, Rongda & Yang, Yifan, 2022. "Credit ratings of Chinese households using factor scores and K-means clustering method," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 309-320.
    7. Barasinska, Nataliya & Ludwig, Johannes & Vogel, Edgar, 2021. "The impact of borrower-based instruments on household vulnerability in Germany," Discussion Papers 20/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Households’ financial vulnerability; Micro-founded models; Financial margin; Macroeconomic forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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