IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/compec/v65y2025i6d10.1007_s10614-024-10673-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Extracting Stock Predictive Information in Mutual Fund Managers’ Portfolio Decisions Through Machine Learning with Hypergraph

Author

Listed:
  • You-Sin Chen

    (National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University)

  • Chu-Lan Michael Kao

    (National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University)

  • Po-Hsien Liu

    (National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University)

  • Vincent S. Tseng

    (National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University)

Abstract

This paper proposes a machine learning framework that incorporates mutual fund managers’ portfolio decisions to predict stock price movements. It employs a weighted hypergraph to connect the information of the funds’ portfolio weight changes to the corresponding stocks in the portfolio. This information is further aggregated with price data extracted through classical machine learning methods. The framework then predicts stock price movements as a classification problem. We tested this framework using Taiwanese stock and mutual fund data, discovering that the managers’ decisions provide predictive information about stocks in addition to the classical technical data. Moreover, we determined that the level of information provided by the managers’ decisions is asymmetric under different market conditions. This finding supports existing literature on mutual fund behavior under varying market conditions. Further discussions on incorporating other expert trading behaviors in Taiwan and model comparisons are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • You-Sin Chen & Chu-Lan Michael Kao & Po-Hsien Liu & Vincent S. Tseng, 2025. "Extracting Stock Predictive Information in Mutual Fund Managers’ Portfolio Decisions Through Machine Learning with Hypergraph," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 65(6), pages 3039-3075, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:65:y:2025:i:6:d:10.1007_s10614-024-10673-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10614-024-10673-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10614-024-10673-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10614-024-10673-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pai, Ping-Feng & Lin, Chih-Sheng, 2005. "A hybrid ARIMA and support vector machines model in stock price forecasting," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 497-505, December.
    2. Chih-Chiang Wu, 2011. "Measuring mutual fund asymmetric performance in changing market conditions: evidence from a Bayesian threshold model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(16), pages 1185-1204.
    3. Goetzmann, William N. & Massa, Massimo, 2002. "Daily Momentum and Contrarian Behavior of Index Fund Investors," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(3), pages 375-389, September.
    4. Daiki Matsunaga & Toyotaro Suzumura & Toshihiro Takahashi, 2019. "Exploring Graph Neural Networks for Stock Market Predictions with Rolling Window Analysis," Papers 1909.10660, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2019.
    5. Russ Wermers, 1999. "Mutual Fund Herding and the Impact on Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 581-622, April.
    6. Louis K. C. Chan & Hsiu-Lang Chen & Josef Lakonishok, 2002. "On Mutual Fund Investment Styles," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(5), pages 1407-1437.
    7. Barber, Brad M. & Odean, Terrance, 2013. "The Behavior of Individual Investors," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1533-1570, Elsevier.
    8. Falkenstein, Eric G, 1996. "Preferences for Stock Characteristics as Revealed by Mutual Fund Portfolio Holdings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 111-135, March.
    9. Raehyun Kim & Chan Ho So & Minbyul Jeong & Sanghoon Lee & Jinkyu Kim & Jaewoo Kang, 2019. "HATS: A Hierarchical Graph Attention Network for Stock Movement Prediction," Papers 1908.07999, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2019.
    10. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "The Utility of Wealth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(2), pages 151-151.
    11. Alexakis, Christos & Dasilas, Apostolos & Grose, Chris, 2013. "Asymmetric dynamic relations between stock prices and mutual fund units in Japan. An application of hidden cointegration technique," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-8.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nerissa C. Brown & Kelsey D. Wei & Russ Wermers, 2014. "Analyst Recommendations, Mutual Fund Herding, and Overreaction in Stock Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(1), pages 1-20, January.
    2. Fotini Economou & Konstantinos Gavriilidis & Bartosz Gebka & Vasileios Kallinterakis, 2022. "Feedback trading: a review of theory and empirical evidence," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(4), pages 429-476, February.
    3. John M.R. Chalmers & Roger M. Edelen & Gregory B. Kadlec, 1999. "Transaction-cost Expenditures and the Relative Performance of Mutual Funds," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 00-02, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    4. Hao FANG & Yang-Cheng Lu & Hwey-Yun Yau & Yen-Hsien Lee, 2013. "Stock Characteristics Herded By Foreign Investors With Higher Abnormal Returns In The Taiwan Stock Market," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 232-245, December.
    5. Khanna, Naveen & Sonti, Ramana, 2004. "Value creating stock manipulation: feedback effect of stock prices on firm value," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 237-270, June.
    6. Jeon, Jin Q & Moffett, Clay M., 2010. "Herding by foreign investors and emerging market equity returns: Evidence from Korea," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 698-710, October.
    7. Simone Brands & David R. Gallagher & Adrian Looi, 2006. "Active investment manager portfolios and preferences for stock characteristics," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 46(2), pages 169-190, June.
    8. Johnson, Woodrow T., 2010. "Do investors trade uniformly through time?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 645-658, September.
    9. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Mohebshahedin, Mahmood, 2018. "Impact of sponsorship on fixed-income fund performance," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 121-137.
    10. Lu, Shan & Zhao, Jichang & Wang, Huiwen & Ren, Ruoen, 2018. "Herding boosts too-connected-to-fail risk in stock market of China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 505(C), pages 945-964.
    11. Cao, Jie & Han, Bing & Wang, Qinghai, 2017. "Institutional Investment Constraints and Stock Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 465-489, April.
    12. Darby, Julia & Zhang, Hai & Zhang, Jinkai, 2021. "Institutional trading in volatile markets: Evidence from Chinese stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    13. Cohen, Randolph B. & Gompers, Paul A. & Vuolteenaho, Tuomo, 2002. "Who underreacts to cash-flow news? evidence from trading between individuals and institutions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 409-462.
    14. I. Koetsier & J.A. Bikker, 2017. "Herding behaviour of Dutch pension funds in sovereign bond investments," Working Papers 17-15, Utrecht School of Economics.
    15. Zhang, Jinhua & Wang, Guipu & Yan, Cheng, 2020. "Can foreign equity funds outperform their benchmarks? New evidence from fund-holding data for China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 11-20.
    16. Jian Li & Alexis Meyer‐Cirkel, 2021. "Promoting financial literacy through a digital platform: A pilot study in Luxembourg," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 73-87, January.
    17. Amil Dasgupta & Andrea Prat & Michela Verardo, 2011. "The Price Impact of Institutional Herding," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(3), pages 892-925.
    18. Qureshi, Fiza & Kutan, Ali M. & Ismail, Izlin & Gee, Chan Sok, 2017. "Mutual funds and stock market volatility: An empirical analysis of Asian emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 176-192.
    19. Chiao, Chaoshin & Chen, Shin-Hui & Hu, Jia-Ming, 2010. "Informational differences among institutional investors in an increasingly institutionalized market," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 118-129, March.
    20. Daniel Dorn & Gur Huberman & Paul Sengmueller, 2008. "Correlated Trading and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 885-920, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:65:y:2025:i:6:d:10.1007_s10614-024-10673-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.