IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/atlecj/v39y2011i2p129-141.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Terrorists’ Equilibrium Choices When No Attack Method is Riskless

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Phillips

    ()

Abstract

This paper builds on Phillips (Defence and Peace Economics, 16(6), 403–414, 2009 ) and enhances the NM expected utility analysis of terroristic behaviour by drawing on the fact that expected utility maximising behaviour in a setting where a terroristic group makes optimal decisions from a choice set containing combinations of attack methods can be analysed in terms of two moments (mean and variance) of the random payoffs associated with each attack method combination. This paper presents an equilibrium relationship between the expected payoffs of attack method combinations and the risk associated with those payoffs. This is an equilibrium model of choice under uncertainty when the behaviour of interest is the selection by a terroristic group of an optimal decision from a choice set containing attack method combinations. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Phillips, 2011. "Terrorists’ Equilibrium Choices When No Attack Method is Riskless," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 39(2), pages 129-141, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:39:y:2011:i:2:p:129-141
    DOI: 10.1007/s11293-010-9253-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11293-010-9253-z
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. S. Feldstein, 1969. "Mean-Variance Analysis in the Theory of Liquidity Preference and Portfolio Selection," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 5-12.
    2. Paul A. Samuelson, 1970. "The Fundamental Approximation Theorem of Portfolio Analysis in terms of Means, Variances and Higher Moments," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(4), pages 537-542.
    3. Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger, "undated". "How to Fight Terrorism: Alternatives to Deterrence," IEW - Working Papers 137, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    4. James Tobin, 1969. "Comment on Borch and Feldstein," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 13-14.
    5. Landes, William M, 1978. "An Economic Study of U.S. Aircraft Hijacking, 1961-1976," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-31, April.
    6. Lintner, John, 1971. "The Effect of Short Selling and Margin Requirements in Perfect Capital Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(05), pages 1173-1195, December.
    7. K. Borch, 1969. "A Note on Uncertainty and Indifference Curves," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 1-4.
    8. Meyer, Jack, 1987. "Two-moment Decision Models and Expected Utility Maximization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 421-430, June.
    9. repec:cup:apsrev:v:77:y:1983:i:01:p:36-54_24 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Joao Ricardo Faria & Daniel Arce, 2005. "Terror Support And Recruitment," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 263-273.
    11. Peter Phillips, 2005. "The 'Price' Of Terrorism," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 403-414.
    12. Levy, H & Markowtiz, H M, 1979. "Approximating Expected Utility by a Function of Mean and Variance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 308-317, June.
    13. Peter Phillips, 2009. "Applying Modern Portfolio Theory To The Analysis Of Terrorism. Computing The Set Of Attack Method Combinations From Which The Rational Terrorist Group Will Choose In Order To Maximise Injuries And Fat," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 193-213.
    14. Black, Fischer, 1972. "Capital Market Equilibrium with Restricted Borrowing," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(3), pages 444-455, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Phillips Peter J, 2011. "Lone Wolf Terrorism," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-31, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expected utility; Terrorism; Mean; Variance; Equilibrium; H56; D74; D81;

    JEL classification:

    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:39:y:2011:i:2:p:129-141. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.