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Projecting the U.S. gender wage gap 2000–40


  • Michael Shannon
  • Michael Kidd


This paper projects the gender wage gap for 25–64 year old Americans for the period 2000–40. The analysis uses data from the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics (PSID) for 1995 and 1996 together with the U.S. Census Bureau demographic projections. The method combines the population projections with assumptions regarding the evolution of educational attainment in order to first project the future distribution of skills and, based on these projections, the future size of the gender wage gap. The main set of projections suggests that changing skill characteristics—specifically educational attainment—will continue to close the gender wage gap. However, even in 2040, a substantial pay gap of at least 75 percent of the size of that in 1995 will remain. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2003

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Shannon & Michael Kidd, 2003. "Projecting the U.S. gender wage gap 2000–40," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 31(4), pages 316-329, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:31:y:2003:i:4:p:316-329
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02298490

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Altonji, Joseph G. & Blank, Rebecca M., 1999. "Race and gender in the labor market," Handbook of Labor Economics,in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 48, pages 3143-3259 Elsevier.
    2. T.D. Stanley & Stephen B. Jarrell, 1998. "Gender Wage Discrimination Bias? A Meta-Regression Analysis," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(4), pages 947-973.
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