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Empirically Effective Bond Pricing Model and Analysis on Term Structures of Implied Interest Rates in Financial Crisis

Author

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  • Takeaki Kariya
  • Jingsui Wang
  • Zhu Wang
  • Eiichi Doi
  • Yoshiro Yamamura

Abstract

In his book (1993) Kariya proposed a government bond (GB) pricing model that simultaneously values individual fixed-coupon (non-defaultable) bonds of different coupon rates and maturities via a discount function approach, and Kariya and Tsuda (Financ Eng Japanese Mark 1:1–20, 1994 ) verified its empirical effectiveness of the model as a pricing model for Japanese Government bonds (JGBs) though the empirical setting was limited to a simple case. In this paper we first clarify the theoretical relation between our stochastic discount function approach and the spot rate or forward rate approach in mathematical finance. Then we make a comprehensive empirical study on the capacity of the model in view of its pricing capability for individual GBs with different attributes and in view of its capacity of describing the movements of term structures of interest rates that JGBs imply as yield curves. Based on various tests of validity in a GLS (Generalized Least Squares) framework we propose a specific formulation with a polynomial of order 6 for the mean discount function that depends on maturity and coupon as attributes and a specific covariance structure. It is shown that even in the middle of the Financial Crisis, the cross-sectional model we propose is shown to be very effective for simultaneously pricing all the existing JGBs and deriving and describing zero yields. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Takeaki Kariya & Jingsui Wang & Zhu Wang & Eiichi Doi & Yoshiro Yamamura, 2012. "Empirically Effective Bond Pricing Model and Analysis on Term Structures of Implied Interest Rates in Financial Crisis," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 19(3), pages 259-292, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:apfinm:v:19:y:2012:i:3:p:259-292
    DOI: 10.1007/s10690-011-9149-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Ross Williams, 2013. "Introduction," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 46(4), pages 460-461, December.
    3. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    4. Pierre Collin‐Dufresne & Bruno Solnik, 2001. "On the Term Structure of Default Premia in the Swap and LIBOR Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 1095-1115, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Takeaki Kariya & Yoko Tanokura & Hideyuki Takada & Yoshiro Yamamura, 2016. "Measuring Credit Risk of Individual Corporate Bonds in US Energy Sector," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 23(3), pages 229-262, September.
    2. Takeaki Kariya & Yoshiro Yamamura & Yoko Tanokura & Zhu Wang, 2015. "Credit Risk Analysis on Euro Government Bonds-Term Structures of Default Probabilities," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 22(4), pages 397-427, November.
    3. Takeaki Kariya & Yoshiro Yamamura & Koji Inui, 2019. "Empirical Credit Risk Ratings of Individual Corporate Bonds and Derivation of Term Structures of Default Probabilities," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-29, July.

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