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Generalised Rational Bias in Financial Forecasts

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  • George Christodoulakis

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  • George Christodoulakis, 2006. "Generalised Rational Bias in Financial Forecasts," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 397-405, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:annfin:v:2:y:2006:i:4:p:397-405
    DOI: 10.1007/s10436-006-0043-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dolado Juan & Pedrero Ramón María-Dolores & Ruge-Murcia Francisco J., 2004. "Nonlinear Monetary Policy Rules: Some New Evidence for the U.S," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-34, September.
    2. Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 1997. "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(6), pages 808-817, December.
    3. A. Robert Nobay & David A. Peel, 2003. "Optimal Discretionary Monetary Policy in a Model of Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(489), pages 657-665, July.
    4. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 2004. "The inflation bias when the central bank targets the natural rate of unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 91-107, February.
    5. Christodoulakis, George A., 2005. "Financial forecasts in the presence of asymmetric loss aversion, skewness and excess kurtosis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 227-233, December.
    6. Mark A. Clatworthy & David A. Peel & Peter F. Pope, 2012. "Are Analysts' Loss Functions Asymmetric?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(8), pages 736-756, December.
    7. repec:lan:wpaper:1207 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Gu, Zhaoyang & Wu, Joanna Shuang, 2003. "Earnings skewness and analyst forecast bias," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 5-29, April.
    9. David Laster & Paul Bennett & In Sun Geoum, 1999. "Rational Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 293-318.
    10. Dolado, Juan J. & Maria-Dolores, Ramon & Naveira, Manuel, 2005. "Are monetary-policy reaction functions asymmetric?: The role of nonlinearity in the Phillips curve," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 485-503, February.
    11. Basu, Sudipta & Markov, Stanimir, 2004. "Loss function assumptions in rational expectations tests on financial analysts' earnings forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 171-203, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. George Christodoulakis & David Peel, 2009. "The Central Bank Inflation Bias in the Presence of Asymmetric Preferences and Non-Normal Shocks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 1608-1620.
    2. George Christodoulakis, 2012. "Conditions for rational investment short-termism," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 15-29, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymmetric preferences; Distribution of forecasters; LinEx; Non-normality; Optimal forecasts; Skewed normal; G1; C5;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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