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Does Supplementing Outcome Feedback with Performance Feedback Improve Probability Judgments?

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  • Ning Du
  • Sandra Shelton
  • Ray Whittington

Abstract

This study examines the effect of feedback on calibration of auditors¡¯ probability judgment. Results from our experiment indicate that auditors¡¯ probability judgments are indeed poorly calibrated and auditors are in general overconfident. In addition, we investigate whether we can use feedback as a means to improve judgment quality. Our evidence indicates that outcome feedback, in spite of its simplicity, is effective in reducing overconfidence. Moreover, we find supplementing outcome feedback with performance feedback does not have any added benefits. Sometimes, it actually decreases judgment performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Ning Du & Sandra Shelton & Ray Whittington, 2012. "Does Supplementing Outcome Feedback with Performance Feedback Improve Probability Judgments?," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 3(4), pages 19-32, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:jfr:ijfr11:v:3:y:2012:i:4:p:19-32
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bolger, Fergus & Onkal-Atay, Dilek, 2004. "The effects of feedback on judgmental interval predictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 29-39.
    2. Benson, P. George & Onkal, Dilek, 1992. "The effects of feedback and training on the performance of probability forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 559-573, December.
    3. Kennedy, J & Peecher, ME, 1997. "Judging auditors' technical knowledge," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 279-293.
    4. Stone, Eric R. & Opel, Ryan B., 2000. "Training to Improve Calibration and Discrimination: The Effects of Performance and Environmental Feedback," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 282-309, November.
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