Calibration Feedback With the Practical Scoring Rule Does Not Improve Calibration of Confidence
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.199
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Du, Ning & Budescu, David V., 2007. "Does past volatility affect investors' price forecasts and confidence judgements?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 497-511.
- David R. Mandel & Daniel Irwin, 2021. "Tracking accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts: Findings from a long‐term Canadian study," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
- Ning Du & Sandra Shelton & Ray Whittington, 2012. "Does Supplementing Outcome Feedback with Performance Feedback Improve Probability Judgments?," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 3(4), pages 19-32, October.
- Benson, P. George & Onkal, Dilek, 1992. "The effects of feedback and training on the performance of probability forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 559-573, December.
- Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.
- Erceg, Nikola & Galić, Zvonimir, 2014. "Overconfidence bias and conjunction fallacy in predicting outcomes of football matches," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 52-62.
- Daniel M Benjamin & Spencer P Hey & Amanda MacPherson & Yasmina Hachem & Kara S Smith & Sean X Zhang & Sandy Wong & Samantha Dolter & David R Mandel & Jonathan Kimmelman, 2022. "Principal investigators over-optimistically forecast scientific and operational outcomes for clinical trials," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(2), pages 1-13, February.
- Shane Frederick, 2005. "Cognitive Reflection and Decision Making," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 25-42, Fall.
- Chul-Ho Bum & Chulhwan Choi & Kyongmin Lee, 2018. "Irrational Beliefs and Social Adaptation of Online Sports Gamblers According to Addiction Level: A Comparative Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-11, November.
- Iacus, Stefano M. & King, Gary & Porro, Giuseppe, 2012. "Causal Inference without Balance Checking: Coarsened Exact Matching," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 1-24, January.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Ross Gruetzemacher & Kang Bok Lee & David Paradice, 2024. "Calibration training for improving probabilistic judgments using an interactive app," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(2), June.
- Dan Zhu & Qingwei Wang & John Goddard, 2022. "A new hedging hypothesis regarding prediction interval formation in stock price forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 697-717, July.
- Chao Wu & Mahyar Eftekhar, 2024. "Does Volunteering Crowd Out Donations? Evidence from Online Experiments," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 26(4), pages 1542-1566, July.
- Doron Sonsino & Tal Shavit, 2014. "Return prediction and stock selection from unidentified historical data," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 641-655, April.
- Alvarado-Valencia, Jorge & Barrero, Lope H. & Önkal, Dilek & Dennerlein, Jack T., 2017. "Expertise, credibility of system forecasts and integration methods in judgmental demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 298-313.
- Brent Moritz & Enno Siemsen & Mirko Kremer, 2014. "Judgmental Forecasting: Cognitive Reflection and Decision Speed," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 23(7), pages 1146-1160, July.
- Katsagounos, Ilias & Thomakos, Dimitrios D. & Litsiou, Konstantia & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2021. "Superforecasting reality check: Evidence from a small pool of experts and expedited identification," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 289(1), pages 107-117.
- Song, Haiyan & Gao, Bastian Z. & Lin, Vera S., 2013. "Combining statistical and judgmental forecasts via a web-based tourism demand forecasting system," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 295-310.
- Xiaoxiao Niu & Nigel Harvey, 2022. "Point, interval, and density forecasts: Differences in bias, judgment noise, and overall accuracy," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(3-4), September.
- Glaser, Markus & Langer, Thomas & Reynders, Jens & Weber, Martin, 2008.
"Scale Dependence of Overconfidence in Stock Market Volatility Forecasts,"
Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications
08-22, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
- Glaser, Markus & Langer, Thomas & Reynders, Jens & Weber, Martin, 2008. "Scale dependence of overconfidence in stock market volatility forecasts," Papers 08-22, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
- Ian Durbach & Gilberto Montibeller, 2018. "Predicting in shock: on the impact of negative, extreme, rare, and short lived events on judgmental forecasts," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 6(1), pages 213-233, June.
- Justin F. Landy, 2016. "Representations of moral violations: Category members and associated features," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 11(5), pages 496-508, September.
- Insoo Cho & Peter F. Orazem, 2021.
"How endogenous risk preferences and sample selection affect analysis of firm survival,"
Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1309-1332, April.
- Cho, Insoo & Orazem, Peter F., 2020. "How endogenous risk preferences and sample selection affect analysis of firm survival," ISU General Staff Papers 202001040800001791, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- David J. Cooper & Krista Saral & Marie Claire Villeval, 2021.
"Why Join a Team?,"
Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(11), pages 6980-6997, November.
- Cooper, David J. & Saral, Krista & Villeval, Marie Claire, 2019. "Why Join a Team?," IZA Discussion Papers 12587, IZA Network @ LISER.
- David J. Cooper & Krista Saral & Marie Claire Villeval, 2021. "Why Join a Team?," Post-Print halshs-03003653, HAL.
- David Cooper & Krista Saral & Marie Claire Villeval, 2019. "Why Join a Team?," Working Papers halshs-02295921, HAL.
- David J. Cooper & Krista Saral & Marie Claire Villeval, 2019. "Why Join a Team?," Working Papers 1928, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Etienne (GATE Lyon St-Etienne), Université de Lyon.
- Jansesberger, Viktoria, 2024. "Storms, floods, landslides and elections in India's growing metropolises: Hotbeds for political protest?," Working Papers 28, University of Konstanz, Cluster of Excellence "The Politics of Inequality. Perceptions, Participation and Policies".
- Zakaria Babutsidze & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Adam Zylbersztejn, 2019.
"Digital Communication and Swift Trust,"
Post-Print
halshs-02409314, HAL.
- Zakaria Babutsidze & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Adam Zylbersztejn, 2019. "Digital Communication and Swift Trust," Working Papers halshs-02050514, HAL.
- Zakaria Babutsidze & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Adam Zylbersztejn, 2019. "Digital Communication and Swift Trust," Working Papers 1909, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Etienne (GATE Lyon St-Etienne), Université de Lyon.
- Zakaria Babutsidze & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Adam Zylbersztejn, 2019. "Digital Communication and Swift Trust," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) halshs-02050514, HAL.
- Zakaria Babutsidze & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Adam Zylbersztejn, 2019. "Digital Communication and Swift Trust," Post-Print halshs-02409309, HAL.
- Brice Corgnet & Roberto Hernán Gonzalez & Ricardo Mateo, 2015. "Cognitive Reflection and the Diligent Worker: An Experimental Study of Millennials," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(11), pages 1-13, November.
- Baecke, Philippe & De Baets, Shari & Vanderheyden, Karlien, 2017. "Investigating the added value of integrating human judgement into statistical demand forecasting systems," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 85-96.
- Francesco Capozza & Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021.
"Studying Information Acquisition in the Field: A Practical Guide and Review,"
CEBI working paper series
21-15, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
- Francesco Capozza & Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Studying Information Acquisition in the Field: A Practical Guide and Review," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 124, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
- Luigi Guiso, 2015.
"A Test of Narrow Framing and its Origin,"
Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 1(1), pages 61-100, March.
- Luigi Guiso, 2008. "A Test of Narrow Framing and its Origin," EIEF Working Papers Series 0818, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Dec 2008.
- Guiso, Luigi, 2009. "A test of narrow framing and its origin," CEPR Discussion Papers 7112, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
- Luigi Guiso, 2009. "A Test of Narrow Framing and its Origin," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/02, European University Institute.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:fufsci:v:7:y:2025:i:1:n:e199. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)2573-5152 .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.
Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/fufsci/v7y2025i1ne199.html