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An Agent-Based Model of Rural Households’ Adaptation to Climate Change

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Abstract

Future climate change is expected to have greater impacts on societies whose livelihoods rely on subsistence agricultural systems. Adaptation is essential for mitigating adverse effects of climate change, to sustain rural livelihoods and ensure future food security. We present an agent-based model, called OMOLAND-CA, which explores the impact of climate change on the adaptive capacity of rural communities in the South Omo Zone of Ethiopia. The purpose of the model is to answer research questions on the resilience and adaptive capacity of rural households with respect to variations in climate, socioeconomic factors, and land-use at the local level. Our model explicitly represents the socio-cognitive behavior of rural households toward climate change and resource flows that prompt agents to diversify their production strategy under different climatic conditions. Results from the model show that successive episodes of extreme events (e.g., droughts) affect the adaptive capacity of households, causing them to migrate from the region. Nonetheless, rural communities in the South Omo Zone, and in the model, manage to endure in spite of such harsh climatic change conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Atesmachew Hailegiorgis & Andrew Crooks & Claudio Cioffi-Revilla, 2018. "An Agent-Based Model of Rural Households’ Adaptation to Climate Change," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 21(4), pages 1-4.
    • Handle: RePEc:jas:jasssj:2017-108-2
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    1. Barry Smit & Mark Skinner, 2002. "Adaptation options in agriculture to climate change: a typology," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 85-114, March.
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    2. Bazzana, Davide & Gilioli, Gianni & Simane, Belay & Zaitchik, Benjamin, 2021. "Analyzing constraints in the water-energy-food nexus: The case of eucalyptus plantation in Ethiopia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    3. Matteo Coronese & Davide Luzzati, 2022. "Economic impacts of natural hazards and complexity science: a critical review," LEM Papers Series 2022/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
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    6. Williams, T.G. & Guikema, S.D. & Brown, D.G. & Agrawal, A., 2020. "Resilience and equity: Quantifying the distributional effects of resilience-enhancing strategies in a smallholder agricultural system," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    7. Shuiping Quan & Yingming Li & Jianxin Song & Tao Zhang & Mingyue Wang, 2019. "Adaptation to Climate Change and its Impacts on Wheat Yield: Perspective of Farmers in Henan of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-12, April.
    8. Grace B. Villamor & Andrew Dunningham & Philip Stahlmann-Brown & Peter W. Clinton, 2022. "Improving the Representation of Climate Change Adaptation Behaviour in New Zealand’s Forest Growing Sector," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-18, March.

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