IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jas/jasssj/2008-1-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling Socio-Technical Transition Patterns and Pathways

Author

Listed:

Abstract

We report on research that is developing a simulation model for assessing systemic innovations, or 'transitions', of societal systems towards a more sustainable development. Our overall aim is to outline design principles for models that can offer new insights into tackling persistent problems in large-scale systems, such as the European road transport system or the regional management of water resources. The systemic nature of these problems is associated with them being complex, uncertain and cutting across a number of sectors, and indicates a need for radical technological and behavioural solutions that address changes at the systems level rather than offering incremental changes within sub-systems. Model design is inspired by recent research into transitions, an emerging paradigm which provides a framework for tackling persistent problems. We use concepts from the literature on transitions to develop a prototype of a generic 'transition model'. Our prototype aims to capture different types of transition pathways, using historical examples such as the transition from horse-drawn carriages to cars or that from sailing ships to steam ships. The model combines agent-based modelling techniques and system dynamics, and includes interactions of individual agents and sub-systems, as well as cumulative effects on system structures. We show success in simulating different historical transition pathways by adapting the model's parameters and rules for each example. Finally, we discuss the improvements necessary for systematically exploring and detailing transition pathways in empirical case-study applications to current and future transitions such as the transition to a sustainable transport system in Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Noam Bergman & Alex Haxeltine & Lorraine Whitmarsh & Jonathan Köhler & Michel Schilperoord & Jan Rotmans, 2008. "Modelling Socio-Technical Transition Patterns and Pathways," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 11(3), pages 1-7.
    • Handle: RePEc:jas:jasssj:2008-1-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.jasss.org/11/3/7/7.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rotmans, J., 2005. "Societal Innovation: between dream and reality lies complexity," ERIM Inaugural Address Series Research in Management 7293, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam..
    2. Smith, Adrian & Stirling, Andy & Berkhout, Frans, 2005. "The governance of sustainable socio-technical transitions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1491-1510, December.
    3. Laver, Michael, 2005. "Policy and the Dynamics of Political Competition," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 99(2), pages 263-281, May.
    4. Lorraine Whitmarsh & Bjorn Nykvist, 2008. "Integrated Sustainability Assessment of mobility transitions: simulating stakeholders' visions of and pathways to sustainable land-based mobility," International Journal of Innovation and Sustainable Development, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(1/2), pages 115-127.
    5. Paul Weaver & Jan Rotmans & John Turnpenny & Andrew Jordan & Alex Haxeltine, 2007. "Methods and Tools for Integrated Sustainability Assessment (MATISSE): A New European Project," Chapters, in: Clive George & Colin Kirkpatrick (ed.), Impact Assessment and Sustainable Development, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Geels, Frank W. & Schot, Johan, 2007. "Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 399-417, April.
    7. Malte Schwoon, 2005. "Simulating the Adoption of Fuel Cell Vehicles," Working Papers FNU-59, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Feb 2006.
    8. Alex Haxeltine & Lorraine Whitmarsh & Noam Bergman & Jan Rotmans & Michel Schilperoord & Jonathan Kohler, 2008. "A Conceptual Framework for transition modelling," International Journal of Innovation and Sustainable Development, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(1/2), pages 93-114.
    9. Paul Diederen & Hans Van Meijl & Arjan Wolters & Katarzyna Bijak, 2003. "Innovation adoption in agriculture : innovators, early adopters and laggards," Cahiers d'Economie et Sociologie Rurales, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 67, pages 29-50.
    10. Giovanni Dosi, 1984. "Technical Change and Industrial Transformation," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-17521-5, December.
    11. Jonathan Kohler, Michael Grubb, David Popp and Ottmar Edenhofer, 2006. "The Transition to Endogenous Technical Change in Climate-Economy Models: A Technical Overview to the Innovation Modeling Comparison Project," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 17-56.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Köhler, Jonathan & Turnheim, Bruno & Hodson, Mike, 2020. "Low carbon transitions pathways in mobility: Applying the MLP in a combined case study and simulation bridging analysis of passenger transport in the Netherlands," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Pieter Valkering & Gönenç Yücel & Ernst Gebetsroither-Geringer & Karin Markvica & Erika Meynaerts & Niki Frantzeskaki, 2017. "Accelerating Transition Dynamics in City Regions: A Qualitative Modeling Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-20, July.
    3. Bale, Catherine S.E. & Varga, Liz & Foxon, Timothy J., 2015. "Energy and complexity: New ways forward," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 150-159.
    4. Lopolito, A. & Morone, P. & Taylor, R., 2013. "Emerging innovation niches: An agent based model," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1225-1238.
    5. Lisa-Britt Fischer & Jens Newig, 2016. "Importance of Actors and Agency in Sustainability Transitions: A Systematic Exploration of the Literature," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-21, May.
    6. Hans Haan, 2008. "The dynamics of functioning investigating societal transitions with partial differential equations," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 302-319, December.
    7. Auke Hoekstra & Maarten Steinbuch & Geert Verbong, 2017. "Creating Agent-Based Energy Transition Management Models That Can Uncover Profitable Pathways to Climate Change Mitigation," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-23, December.
    8. Safarzyńska, Karolina & Frenken, Koen & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2012. "Evolutionary theorizing and modeling of sustainability transitions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1011-1024.
    9. Hidayatno, Akhmad & Jafino, Bramka Arga & Setiawan, Andri D. & Purwanto, Widodo Wahyu, 2020. "When and why does transition fail? A model-based identification of adoption barriers and policy vulnerabilities for transition to natural gas vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    10. Walrave, Bob & Raven, Rob, 2016. "Modelling the dynamics of technological innovation systems," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(9), pages 1833-1844.
    11. Lee, Junmin & Kim, Keungoui & Kim, Jiyong & Hwang, Junseok, 2022. "The relationship between shared mobility and regulation in South Korea: A system dynamics approach from the socio-technical transitions perspective," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    12. Ringler, Philipp & Keles, Dogan & Fichtner, Wolf, 2016. "Agent-based modelling and simulation of smart electricity grids and markets – A literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 205-215.
    13. Fatih Canıtez, 2021. "The Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles: A Socio-Technical Transition Perspective," Alphanumeric Journal, Bahadir Fatih Yildirim, vol. 9(2), pages 143-162, December.
    14. Michel Schilperoord & Jan Rotmans & Noam Bergman, 2008. "Modelling societal transitions with agent transformation," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 283-301, December.
    15. Canitez, Fatih, 2019. "Pathways to sustainable urban mobility in developing megacities: A socio-technical transition perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 319-329.
    16. Xi Yang & Xiang Yu & Xin Liu, 2018. "Obtaining a Sustainable Competitive Advantage from Patent Information: A Patent Analysis of the Graphene Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-25, December.
    17. Whitmarsh, Lorraine, 2012. "How useful is the Multi-Level Perspective for transport and sustainability research?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 483-487.
    18. Köhler, Jonathan & Whitmarsh, Lorraine & Nykvist, Björn & Schilperoord, Michel & Bergman, Noam & Haxeltine, Alex, 2009. "A transitions model for sustainable mobility," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(12), pages 2985-2995, October.
    19. Papachristos, George & Adamides, Emmanuel, 2016. "A retroductive systems-based methodology for socio-technical transitions research," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 1-14.
    20. Scrieciu, S. Şerban & Barker, Terry & Ackerman, Frank, 2013. "Pushing the boundaries of climate economics: critical issues to consider in climate policy analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 155-165.
    21. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil, 2015. "A review of socio-technical energy transition (STET) models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 290-305.
    22. Fjalar J. De Haan & Briony C. Rogers, 2019. "The Multi-Pattern Approach for Systematic Analysis of Transition Pathways," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-30, January.
    23. Busch, Jonathan & Roelich, Katy & Bale, Catherine S.E. & Knoeri, Christof, 2017. "Scaling up local energy infrastructure; An agent-based model of the emergence of district heating networks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 170-180.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michel Schilperoord & Jan Rotmans & Noam Bergman, 2008. "Modelling societal transitions with agent transformation," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 283-301, December.
    2. Köhler, Jonathan & Whitmarsh, Lorraine & Nykvist, Björn & Schilperoord, Michel & Bergman, Noam & Haxeltine, Alex, 2009. "A transitions model for sustainable mobility," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(12), pages 2985-2995, October.
    3. Köhler, Jonathan & Turnheim, Bruno & Hodson, Mike, 2020. "Low carbon transitions pathways in mobility: Applying the MLP in a combined case study and simulation bridging analysis of passenger transport in the Netherlands," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    4. Fjalar J. De Haan & Briony C. Rogers, 2019. "The Multi-Pattern Approach for Systematic Analysis of Transition Pathways," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-30, January.
    5. G. Marletto, 2013. "Car and the city: Socio-technical pathways to 2030," Working Paper CRENoS 201306, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    6. Karanasios, Konstantinos & Parker, Paul, 2018. "Tracking the transition to renewable electricity in remote indigenous communities in Canada," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 169-181.
    7. Pieter Valkering & Gönenç Yücel & Ernst Gebetsroither-Geringer & Karin Markvica & Erika Meynaerts & Niki Frantzeskaki, 2017. "Accelerating Transition Dynamics in City Regions: A Qualitative Modeling Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-20, July.
    8. C. Sillig & G. Marletto, 2022. "Global influence and national diversity in socio-technical transitions: a sectoral taxonomy," Working Paper CRENoS 202203, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    9. Marletto, Gerardo, 2014. "Car and the city: Socio-technical transition pathways to 2030," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 164-178.
    10. Chappin, Emile J.L. & Ligtvoet, Andreas, 2014. "Transition and transformation: A bibliometric analysis of two scientific networks researching socio-technical change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 715-723.
    11. Marletto, Gerardo, 2019. "Who will drive the transition to self-driving? A socio-technical analysis of the future impact of automated vehicles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 221-234.
    12. Marletto, Gerardo & Ortolan, Chiara, 2017. "Testing the integration of political discourses into the socio-technical map of urban mobility," Working Papers 17_2, SIET Società Italiana di Economia dei Trasporti e della Logistica.
    13. Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo & Campos-Celador, Álvaro & Terés-Zubiaga, Jon, 2018. "Renewable Energy Cooperatives as an instrument towards the energy transition in Spain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 215-229.
    14. Funcke, Simon & Bauknecht, Dierk, 2016. "Typology of centralised and decentralised visions for electricity infrastructure," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 67-74.
    15. Hellsmark, Hans & Hansen, Teis, 2020. "A new dawn for (oil) incumbents within the bioeconomy? Trade-offs and lessons for policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    16. Pradeep Racherla & Munir Mandviwalla, 2013. "Moving from Access to Use of the Information Infrastructure: A Multilevel Sociotechnical Framework," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 24(3), pages 709-730, September.
    17. Lucy Baker, 2016. "Post-apartheid electricity policy and the emergence of South Africa's renewable energy sector," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-15, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    18. Lee, Junmin & Kim, Keungoui & Kim, Jiyong & Hwang, Junseok, 2022. "The relationship between shared mobility and regulation in South Korea: A system dynamics approach from the socio-technical transitions perspective," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    19. Nina Savela & Jarkko Levänen & Sara Lindeman & Nnenesi Kgabi & Heikki Koivisto & Meri Olenius & Samuel John & Damas Mashauri & Minna M. Keinänen-Toivola, 2020. "Rapid Urbanization and Infrastructure Pressure: Comparing the Sustainability Transition Potential of Water and Energy Regimes in Namibia," World, MDPI, vol. 1(2), pages 1-18, July.
    20. Canitez, Fatih, 2019. "Pathways to sustainable urban mobility in developing megacities: A socio-technical transition perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 319-329.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jas:jasssj:2008-1-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Francesco Renzini (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.