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Simulation and Validation of an Integrated Markets Model

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    The behavior of boundedly rational agents in two interacting markets is investigated. A discrete-time model of coupled financial and consumer markets is described. The integrated model consists of heterogenous consumers, financial traders, and production firms. The production firms operate in the consumer market, and offer their shares to be traded on the financial market. The model is validated by comparing its output to known empirical properties of real markets. In order to better explore the influence of model parameters on behavior, a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo method is introduced. This method allows for the efficient exploration of large parameter spaces, in order to find which parameter regimes lead to reproduction of empirical phenomena. It is shown that the integrated markets model can reproduce a number of empirical ``stylized facts'', including learning-by-doing effects, fundamental price effects, low autocorrelations, volatility clustering, high kurtosis, and volatility-volume correlations.

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    Article provided by Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation in its journal Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation.

    Volume (Year): 6 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 2

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    Handle: RePEc:jas:jasssj:2003-5-2
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    1. LeBaron, Blake & Arthur, W. Brian & Palmer, Richard, 1999. "Time series properties of an artificial stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1487-1516, September.
    2. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2002. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 95-132, February.
    3. repec:att:wimass:9621 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    5. Sanford Grossman, 1989. "The Informational Role of Prices," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262572141, June.
    6. C. Chiarella & X-Z. He, 2001. "Asset price and wealth dynamics under heterogeneous expectations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(5), pages 509-526.
    7. Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Martin Natter & Andreas Mild & Markus Feurstein & Georg Dorffner & Alfred Taudes, 2001. "The Effect of Incentive Schemes and Organizational Arrangements on the New Product Development Process," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(8), pages 1029-1045, August.
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