IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/oropre/v58y2010i6p1592-1610.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do Firms Invest in Forecasting Efficiently? The Effect of Competition on Demand Forecast Investments and Supply Chain Coordination

Author

Listed:
  • Hyoduk Shin

    (Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois 60208)

  • Tunay I. Tunca

    (Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305)

Abstract

We study the effect of downstream competition on incentives for demand forecast investments in supply chains. We show that with common pricing schemes, such as wholesale price or two-part tariffs, downstream firms under Cournot competition overinvest in demand forecasting. Analyzing the determinants of overinvestment, we demonstrate that under wholesale price contracts and two-part tariffs, total demand forecast investment can be very significant, and as a result, the supply chain can suffer substantial losses. We show that an increased number of competing retailers and uncertainty in consumer demand tend to increase inefficiency, whereas increased consumer market size and demand forecast costs reduce the loss in supply chain surplus. We identify the causes of inefficiency, and to coordinate the channel with forecast investments, we explore contracts in the general class of market-based contracts used in practice. When retailers' forecast investments are not observable, such a contract that employs an index-price can fully coordinate the supply chain. When forecast investments are observable to others, however, the retailers engage in an “arms race” for forecast investment, which can result in a significant increase in overinvestment and reduction in supply chain surplus. Furthermore, in that case, simple market-based contracts cannot coordinate the supply chain. To solve this problem, we propose a uniform-price divisible-good auction-based contracting scheme, which can achieve full coordination when forecast investments are observable. We also demonstrate the desirable properties for implementability of our proposed coordinating contracting schemes, including incentive-compatible and reliable demand forecast information revelation by the retailers, and being regret-free.

Suggested Citation

  • Hyoduk Shin & Tunay I. Tunca, 2010. "Do Firms Invest in Forecasting Efficiently? The Effect of Competition on Demand Forecast Investments and Supply Chain Coordination," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(6), pages 1592-1610, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:58:y:2010:i:6:p:1592-1610
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.1100.0876
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.1100.0876
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/opre.1100.0876?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Venu Nagali & Jerry Hwang & David Sanghera & Matt Gaskins & Mark Pridgen & Tim Thurston & Patty Mackenroth & Dwight Branvold & Patrick Scholler & Greg Shoemaker, 2008. "Procurement Risk Management (PRM) at Hewlett-Packard Company," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 38(1), pages 51-60, February.
    2. Gérard P. Cachon & Martin A. Lariviere, 2001. "Contracting to Assure Supply: How to Share Demand Forecasts in a Supply Chain," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(5), pages 629-646, May.
    3. Esther Gal-or, 1986. "Information Transmission—Cournot and Bertrand Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 85-92.
    4. Lode Li & Hongtao Zhang, 2008. "Confidentiality and Information Sharing in Supply Chain Coordination," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(8), pages 1467-1481, August.
    5. Hau L. Lee & Kut C. So & Christopher S. Tang, 2000. "The Value of Information Sharing in a Two-Level Supply Chain," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(5), pages 626-643, May.
    6. Jehiel, Philippe & Moldovanu, Benny, 2001. "Efficient Design with Interdependent Valuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1237-1259, September.
    7. Vives, Xavier, 1984. "Duopoly information equilibrium: Cournot and bertrand," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 71-94, October.
    8. Lode Li, 1985. "Cournot Oligopoly with Information Sharing," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 16(4), pages 521-536, Winter.
    9. Li, Lode & McKelvey, Richard D. & Page, Talbot, 1987. "Optimal research for cournot oligopolists," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 140-166, June.
    10. Gal-Or, Esther, 1985. "Information Sharing in Oligopoly," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 329-343, March.
    11. Marshall Fisher & Ananth Raman, 1996. "Reducing the Cost of Demand Uncertainty Through Accurate Response to Early Sales," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 44(1), pages 87-99, February.
    12. Amir Ziv, 1993. "Information Sharing in Oligopoly: The Truth-Telling Problem," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 24(3), pages 455-465, Autumn.
    13. Edward Clarke, 1971. "Multipart pricing of public goods," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 17-33, September.
    14. Lode Li, 2002. "Information Sharing in a Supply Chain with Horizontal Competition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(9), pages 1196-1212, September.
    15. Dirk Bergemann & Juuso Valimaki, 2002. "Information Acquisition and Efficient Mechanism Design," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(3), pages 1007-1033, May.
    16. Robert Wilson, 1979. "Auctions of Shares," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 93(4), pages 675-689.
    17. Robert Wilson, 2002. "Architecture of Power Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1299-1340, July.
    18. Albert Y. Ha & Shilu Tong & Hongtao Zhang, 2011. "Sharing Demand Information in Competing Supply Chains with Production Diseconomies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(3), pages 566-581, March.
    19. Raith, Michael, 1996. "A General Model of Information Sharing in Oligopoly," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 260-288, October.
    20. Motty Perry & Philip J. Reny, 2002. "An Efficient Auction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(3), pages 1199-1212, May.
    21. Green, Richard, 1999. "The Electricity Contract Market in England and Wales," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 107-124, March.
    22. Joseph J. Spengler, 1950. "Vertical Integration and Antitrust Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58, pages 347-347.
    23. Yossi Aviv, 2001. "The Effect of Collaborative Forecasting on Supply Chain Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(10), pages 1326-1343, October.
    24. Andy A. Tsay, 1999. "The Quantity Flexibility Contract and Supplier-Customer Incentives," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(10), pages 1339-1358, October.
    25. Cremer, Jacques & McLean, Richard P, 1985. "Optimal Selling Strategies under Uncertainty for a Discriminating Monopolist When Demands Are Interdependent," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 345-361, March.
    26. William Novshek & Hugo Sonnenschein, 1982. "Fulfilled Expectations Cournot Duopoly with Information Acquisition and Release," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 13(1), pages 214-218, Spring.
    27. Klemperer, Paul D & Meyer, Margaret A, 1989. "Supply Function Equilibria in Oligopoly under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1243-1277, November.
    28. Haim Mendelson & Tunay I. Tunca, 2007. "Strategic Spot Trading in Supply Chains," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(5), pages 742-759, May.
    29. Terry A. Taylor, 2002. "Supply Chain Coordination Under Channel Rebates with Sales Effort Effects," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(8), pages 992-1007, August.
    30. Terry A. Taylor & Wenqiang Xiao, 2009. "Incentives for Retailer Forecasting: Rebates vs. Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(10), pages 1654-1669, October.
    31. Gérard P. Cachon & Martin A. Lariviere, 2005. "Supply Chain Coordination with Revenue-Sharing Contracts: Strengths and Limitations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(1), pages 30-44, January.
    32. Cremer, Jacques & McLean, Richard P, 1988. "Full Extraction of the Surplus in Bayesian and Dominant Strategy Auctions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1247-1257, November.
    33. Carl Shapiro, 1986. "Exchange of Cost Information in Oligopoly," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 433-446.
    34. Groves, Theodore, 1973. "Incentives in Teams," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(4), pages 617-631, July.
    35. Kevin Zhu, 2004. "Information Transparency of Business-to-Business Electronic Markets: A Game-Theoretic Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(5), pages 670-685, May.
    36. Özalp Özer & Yanchong Zheng & Kay-Yut Chen, 2011. "Trust in Forecast Information Sharing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(6), pages 1111-1137, June.
    37. Christian Terwiesch & Z. Justin Ren & Teck H. Ho & Morris A. Cohen, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Forecast Sharing in the Semiconductor Equipment Supply Chain," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(2), pages 208-220, February.
    38. Albert Y. Ha & Shilu Tong, 2008. "Contracting and Information Sharing Under Supply Chain Competition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(4), pages 701-715, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Haim Mendelson & Tunay I. Tunca, 2007. "Strategic Spot Trading in Supply Chains," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(5), pages 742-759, May.
    2. Lode Li & Hongtao Zhang, 2008. "Confidentiality and Information Sharing in Supply Chain Coordination," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(8), pages 1467-1481, August.
    3. Noam Shamir & Hyoduk Shin, 2016. "Public Forecast Information Sharing in a Market with Competing Supply Chains," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(10), pages 2994-3022, October.
    4. Shamir, Noam, 2012. "Strategic information sharing between competing retailers in a supply chain with endogenous wholesale price," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 352-365.
    5. Zhang, Juliang & Chen, Jian, 2013. "Coordination of information sharing in a supply chain," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 178-187.
    6. Tunca, Tunay I., 2008. "Information precision and asymptotic efficiency of industrial markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(9-10), pages 964-996, September.
    7. Li, Tian & Zhang, Hongtao, 2015. "Information sharing in a supply chain with a make-to-stock manufacturer," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 115-125.
    8. Guangwen Kong & Sampath Rajagopalan & Hao Zhang, 2013. "Revenue Sharing and Information Leakage in a Supply Chain," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(3), pages 556-572, November.
    9. Ruomeng Cui & Hyoduk Shin, 2018. "Sharing Aggregate Inventory Information with Customers: Strategic Cross-Selling and Shortage Reduction," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(1), pages 381-400, January.
    10. Liang Guo & Ganesh Iyer, 2010. "Information Acquisition and Sharing in a Vertical Relationship," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(3), pages 483-506, 05-06.
    11. Wei-Shiun Chang & Daniel A. Sanchez-Loor, 2020. "Downstream Information Leaking and Information Sharing Between Partially Informed Retailers," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 733-760, December.
    12. Tunay I. Tunca, 2004. "Information Precision and Asymptotic Efficiency of Industrial Markets," Working Papers 04-11, NET Institute, revised Oct 2004.
    13. Krishnan S. Anand & Manu Goyal, 2009. "Strategic Information Management Under Leakage in a Supply Chain," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(3), pages 438-452, March.
    14. Leon Yang Chu & Noam Shamir & Hyoduk Shin, 2017. "Strategic Communication for Capacity Alignment with Pricing in a Supply Chain," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(12), pages 4366-4377, December.
    15. Weixin Shang & Albert Y. Ha & Shilu Tong, 2016. "Information Sharing in a Supply Chain with a Common Retailer," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(1), pages 245-263, January.
    16. Lode Li, 2002. "Information Sharing in a Supply Chain with Horizontal Competition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(9), pages 1196-1212, September.
    17. Mümin Kurtuluş & Sezer Ülkü & Beril L. Toktay, 2012. "The Value of Collaborative Forecasting in Supply Chains," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 14(1), pages 82-98, January.
    18. Daozhi Zhao & Zhibao Li, 2018. "The impact of manufacturer’s encroachment and nonlinear production cost on retailer’s information sharing decisions," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 264(1), pages 499-539, May.
    19. Fu, Ke & Wang, Ce & Xu, Jiayan, 2022. "The impact of trade credit on information sharing in a supply chain," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    20. Junjie Zhou & Xiaoshuai Fan & Ying-Ju Chen & Christopher S. Tang, 2021. "Information Provision and Farmer Welfare in Developing Economies," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 23(1), pages 230-245, 1-2.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:58:y:2010:i:6:p:1592-1610. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Matthew Walls (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.