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Uncertainty and Sectoral Shifts: The Interaction Between Firm-Level and Aggregate-Level Shocks, and Macroeconomic Activity

Author

Listed:
  • Alon Kalay

    (Columbia University, New York, New York 10027)

  • Suresh Nallareddy

    (Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708)

  • Gil Sadka

    (University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, Texas 75080)

Abstract

This study predicts and finds that the interaction of firm-level and aggregate-level shocks explains a significant portion of shocks to macroeconomic activity. Specifically, we hypothesize that the relation between uncertainty and economic growth is most pronounced when both firm-level and aggregate-level uncertainty are high simultaneously. Similarly, we hypothesize that aggregate performance affects unemployment most when both firm-level dispersion is high and aggregate performance is low, based on the sectoral shift theory. Our hypotheses and empirical results show that the interactive effect of firm-level and aggregate-level shocks are larger than the sum of the individual effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Alon Kalay & Suresh Nallareddy & Gil Sadka, 2018. "Uncertainty and Sectoral Shifts: The Interaction Between Firm-Level and Aggregate-Level Shocks, and Macroeconomic Activity," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(1), pages 198-214, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:64:y:2018:i:1:p:198-214
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2016.2581
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Berner, Julian & Buchholz, Manuel & Tonzer, Lena, 2020. "Asymmetric investment responses to firm-specific forecast errors," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
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    5. Gkougkousi, Xanthi & John, Kose & Radhakrishnan, Suresh & Sadka, Gil & Saunders, Anthony, 2022. "Cross-sectional dispersion and bank performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    6. Kimberly A. Berg & Nam T. Vu, 2021. "Asymmetric effects of sectoral shifts under low and high uncertainty," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1149-1171, July.
    7. Binz, Oliver & Mayew, William J. & Nallareddy, Suresh, 2022. "Firms’ response to macroeconomic estimation errors," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2).
    8. Heater, John C. & Nallareddy, Suresh & Venkatachalam, Mohan, 2021. "Aggregate accruals and market returns: The role of aggregate M&A activity," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2).
    9. Manuel Buchholz & Lena Tonzer & Julian Berner, 2022. "Firm‐specific forecast errors and asymmetric investment propensity," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(2), pages 764-793, April.

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