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Fund Flows, Performance, Managerial Career Concerns, and Risk Taking

Author

Listed:
  • Ping Hu

    () (Risk Analytics, Corporate Finance, Wells Fargo, Charlotte, North Carolina 28202)

  • Jayant R. Kale

    () (Department of Finance, J. Mack Robinson College of Business, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia 30303)

  • Marco Pagani

    () (Department of Accounting and Finance, San José State University, San José, California 95192)

  • Ajay Subramanian

    () (Department of Risk Management and Insurance, J. Mack Robinson College of Business, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia 30303)

Abstract

We develop a unified model of the interactions among investors, fund companies, and fund managers. We show that the interplay between a manager's incentives from her compensation structure and career concerns leads to a nonmonotonic (approximately U-shaped) relation between her risk choices and prior performance relative to her peers. Significantly outperforming (underperforming) managers are less (more) likely to be fired in the future and are also more likely to increase relative risk. Ceteris paribus, relative risk declines with the level of employment risk faced by a manager. Using a large sample of mutual fund managers, we find strong support for the hypothesized U-shaped relation between relative risk and prior performance. Our findings also highlight the importance of employment risk as the underlying driver of risk shifting by fund managers. Our theoretical model also generates additional hypotheses that link determinants of the fund flow-performance relation and managers' employment risk to their risk-taking behavior. In support, our empirical analysis shows that funds with higher expense ratios have less convex fund flow-performance relations and less convex U-shaped relations between relative risk and prior performance; funds with younger managers, who face greater employment risk, have more convex U-shaped relative risk-prior performance relations; and managers in larger fund families have lower incentives to engage in risk shifting, thereby leading to a less convex U-shaped relation. This paper was accepted by Wei Xiong, finance.

Suggested Citation

  • Ping Hu & Jayant R. Kale & Marco Pagani & Ajay Subramanian, 2011. "Fund Flows, Performance, Managerial Career Concerns, and Risk Taking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(4), pages 628-646, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:57:y:2011:i:4:p:628-646
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1100.1305
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Citci, Sadettin Haluk & Inci, Eren, 2016. "The masquerade ball of the CEOs and the mask of excessive risk," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 383-393.
    2. Buzzacchi, Luigi & Scellato, Giuseppe & Ughetto, Elisa, 2015. "Investment stage drifts and venture capital managerial incentives," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 118-128.
    3. Jennifer Huang & Clemens Sialm & Hanjiang Zhang, 2011. "Risk Shifting and Mutual Fund Performance," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(8), pages 2575-2616.
    4. Kempf, Alexander & Ruenzi, Stefan & Thiele, Tanja, 2009. "Employment risk, compensation incentives, and managerial risk taking: Evidence from the mutual fund industry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 92-108, April.
    5. Amparo Soler Domínguez & Juan Carlos Matallín Sáez & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2013. "Does active management add value? New evidence from a quantile regression approach," Working Papers. Serie EC 2013-02, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    6. Cuthbertson, Keith & Nitzsche, Dirk & O'Sullivan, Niall, 2016. "A review of behavioural and management effects in mutual fund performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 162-176.
    7. Hobbs, Jeffrey & Singh, Vivek, 2015. "A comparison of buy-side and sell-side analysts," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 42-51.
    8. Agarwal, Vikas & Ma, Linlin & Mullally, Kevin, 2015. "Managerial multitasking in the mutual fund industry," CFR Working Papers 13-10 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    9. repec:eee:jbfina:v:80:y:2017:i:c:p:14-32 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:eee:pacfin:v:46:y:2017:i:pb:p:269-291 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Agarwal, Vikas & Gay, Gerald D. & Ling, Leng, 2014. "Window dressing in mutual funds," CFR Working Papers 11-07 [rev.3], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    12. J. Carlos Matallín-Sáez & Amparo Soler-Domínguez & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2013. "Does active management add value? New evidence from a quantile regression," Working Papers 2013/01, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    13. Agarwal, Vikas & Ma, Linlin, 2013. "Managerial multitasking in the mutual fund industry," CFR Working Papers 13-10, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).

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