IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ine/journl/v46y2018i55p60-74.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Regional patterns of Romanian emigration. A Geographically Weighted Regression Model

Author

Listed:
  • Zizi GOSCHIN

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies; Senior Scientific Researcher, Institute of National Economy, Romania)

Abstract

Analyses of emigration flows and their factors of influence are usually conducted at aggregate country level, thus ignoring the existence of large regional inequalities. Since regions are very diverse, the key drivers of emigration are likely to change in space and act with variable intensity, creating different regional patterns. The presence of broad regional inequalities and the concentration of high emigration flows in a few regions, as in the Romanian case, require specific investigation tools, such as the geographically weighted regression (GWR) which is able to highlight the spatial variations in regression parameters. This method provides coefficient estimaties that change from one region to another, according to spatially defined weights; therefore it lets the model to fluctuate territorially, capturing the real spatial patterns of the phenomenon under investigation. Starting from these considerations we analysed the main determinants of the emigration flows in Romania with a GWR model, using new regional migration data issued by the National Institute of Statistics following the last census. We explored the counties’ vulnerability to emigration in relation to several important influence factors: local development level, earnings, employment, and education. Our findings provide some new insights into this topic, revealing sizeable territorial variation in emigration determinants and pointing to the counties that are more strongly afected by certain factors of influence. These results represent an improvement compared to those provided by the traditional global models, which are unable to distinguish the spatial variation in estimations. The county-specific estimates resulting from the GWR model represent useful information for shaping appropriate migration policies, specifically tailored to meet the local needs.

Suggested Citation

  • Zizi GOSCHIN, 2018. "Regional patterns of Romanian emigration. A Geographically Weighted Regression Model," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 46(1(55)), pages 60-74, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ine:journl:v:46:y:2018:i:55:p:60-74
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.revecon.ro/articles/2018-1/2018-1-3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roman, Monica & Ileanu, Bogdan, 2010. "Modelarea Deciziei De Remitere A Emigranţilor Est Europeni [Modelling The Remittance Decision Of Eastern European Emigrants]," MPRA Paper 31776, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Sep 2010.
    2. Zizi Goschin, 2013. "The Remittances As A Potential Economic Growth Resource For Romania," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 2(15), pages 1-29.
    3. Roman, Monica & Voicu, Cristina, 2010. "Some Socio-Economic Effects of Labour Migration on the Sending Country. Evidence from Romania," MPRA Paper 23527, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2010.
    4. Hinks, Tim & Davies, Simon, 2015. "Intentions to return : evidence from Romanian migrants," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7166, The World Bank.
    5. Cristina Boboc-Trandas & S. Ghita & E. Titan & D. Todose & V. Voineagu, 2007. "Brain drain phenomena in Romania - possibilities of econometrical modelling," Post-Print halshs-00281180, HAL.
    6. José De Sousa & Laetitia Duval, 2010. "Geographic distance and remittances in Romania: Out of sight, out of mind?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 121, pages 81-98.
    7. Monica ROMAN & Zizi GOSCHIN, 2014. "Return migration in an economic crisis context. A survey on Romanian healthcare professionals," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 39(2(48)), pages 100-120, December.
    8. Antonio Páez & Steven Farber & David Wheeler, 2011. "A Simulation-Based Study of Geographically Weighted Regression as a Method for Investigating Spatially Varying Relationships," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 43(12), pages 2992-3010, December.
    9. Maria-Daniela Bondoc & Ramona-Florina Popescu & Emilia Ungureanu, 2010. "Analysis of the temporary evolution of the Romanian migration flows abroad, on migration routes," Revista de cercetare si interventie sociala, Editura Lumen, Department of Economics, vol. 28, pages 143-155, March.
    10. Silasi, Grigore & Simina, Ovidiu Laurian, 2006. "Migration, Mobility and Human Rights at the Eastern Border of the European Union - Space of Freedom and Security," MPRA Paper 12273, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. David Wheeler & Michael Tiefelsdorf, 2005. "Multicollinearity and correlation among local regression coefficients in geographically weighted regression," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 161-187, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Prada Elena-Maria & Cimpoeru Smaranda, 2023. "Mapping and modelling the main determinants of Migration Flows at the NUTS2 Level in European Union using Spatial Data Analysis Techniques," Management & Marketing, Sciendo, vol. 18(4), pages 594-607, December.
    2. Antonia Mihai & Prada Elena-Maria, 2022. "Temporary Immigration and Regional Income Inequalities in Times of COVID-19. A Spatial Panel Data Analysis," Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 11(1-2), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Aniela Matei & Elen-Silvana Bobârnat, 2022. "Effects of the Family Solidarity on Romanian Left behind Children," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-15, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Goschin, Zizi, 2016. "Main Determinants of Romanian Emigration. A Regional Perspective," MPRA Paper 88829, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Zizi GOSCHIN & Monica ROMAN, 2012. "Determinants of the remitting behaviour of Romanian emigrants in an economic crisis context," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 3, pages 87-103, December.
    3. Roman, Monica & Popescu, Madalina Ecaterina, 2014. "The effects of training on Romanian migrants’ income: a propensity score matching approach," MPRA Paper 63251, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2014.
    4. Monica ROMAN & Zizi GOSCHIN, 2014. "Return migration in an economic crisis context. A survey on Romanian healthcare professionals," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 39(2(48)), pages 100-120, December.
    5. Anghel, Remus Gabriel & Botezat, Alina & Cosciug, Anatolie & Manafi, Ioana & Roman, Monica, 2016. "International migration, return migration, and their effects. A comprehensive review on the Romanian case," MPRA Paper 75528, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2016.
    6. Diana Gutiérrez Posada & Fernando Rubiera Morollón & Ana Viñuela, 2018. "Ageing Places in an Ageing Country: The Local Dynamics of the Elderly Population in Spain," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 109(3), pages 332-349, July.
    7. A. Stewart Fotheringham & Taylor M. Oshan, 2016. "Geographically weighted regression and multicollinearity: dispelling the myth," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 303-329, October.
    8. Li, Hengyun & Chen, Jason Li & Li, Gang & Goh, Carey, 2016. "Tourism and regional income inequality: Evidence from China," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 81-99.
    9. Olaru, Doina & Mulley, Corinne & Smith, Brett & Ma, Liang, 2017. "Policy-led selection of the most appropriate empirical model to estimate hedonic prices in the residential market," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 213-228.
    10. Huang, Yuan & Wang, Xiaoguang & Patton, David, 2018. "Examining spatial relationships between crashes and the built environment: A geographically weighted regression approach," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 221-233.
    11. Monica ROMAN & Maria Denisa VASILESCU, 2016. "Explaining the Migration Intentions Of Romanian Youth: Are Teenegers Different?," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(4), pages 69-86, December.
    12. GOSCHIN Zizi & ROMAN Monica & DANCIU Aniela-Raluca, 2013. "The Brain Drain Phenomenon In Romania. Magnitude, Characteristics, Implications," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 65(5), pages 190-206.
    13. Zizi Goschin, 2013. "The Remittances As A Potential Economic Growth Resource For Romania," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 2(15), pages 1-29.
    14. Christos Agiakloglou & Cleon Tsimbos & Apostolos Tsimpanos, 2019. "Evidence of spurious results along with spatially autocorrelated errors in the context of geographically weighted regression for two independent SAR(1) processes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1613-1631, November.
    15. Dongwoo Kang & Sandy Dall’erba, 2016. "Exploring the spatially varying innovation capacity of the US counties in the framework of Griliches’ knowledge production function: a mixed GWR approach," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 125-157, April.
    16. Rojas, Carolina & Páez, Antonio & Barbosa, Olga & Carrasco, Juan, 2016. "Accessibility to urban green spaces in Chilean cities using adaptive thresholds," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 227-240.
    17. Helbich, Marco & Böcker, Lars & Dijst, Martin, 2014. "Geographic heterogeneity in cycling under various weather conditions: evidence from Greater Rotterdam," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 38-47.
    18. Ingram, Matthew C. & Marchesini da Costa, Marcelo, 2019. "Political geography of violence: Municipal politics and homicide in Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 1-1.
    19. Zizi Goschin & Monica Roman & Aura Popa, 2011. "Determinants of Romanian International Migrants' Remittances," ERSA conference papers ersa11p1001, European Regional Science Association.
    20. Njangang, Henri & Nembot Ndeffo, Luc & Noubissi Domguia, Edmond & Fosto Koyeu, Prevost, 2018. "The long-run and short-run effects of foreign direct investment, foreign aid and remittances on economic growth in African countries," MPRA Paper 89747, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    push factors; geographically weighted regression; counties; Romania;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ine:journl:v:46:y:2018:i:55:p:60-74. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Valentina Vasile (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.