IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ijb/journl/v10y2011i2p93-116.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Fresh Look at Seasonal Anomalies: An International Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Ali F. Darrat

    (College of Business, Louisiana Tech University, U.S.A.)

  • Bin Li

    (Griffith Business School, Griffith University, Australia)

  • Benjamin Liu

    (Griffith Business School, Griffith University, Australia)

  • Jen Je Su

    (Griffith Business School, Griffith University, Australia)

Abstract

Under globalization and international market integration, exploring seasonality in global equity markets is imperative for portfolio managers and individual investors to timely reconstruct their portfolios and for firms to optimally schedule the issue of either new shares or IPOs. Prior research supports the presence of the January effect, particularly in the US stock market. However, in the context of international stock markets, the evidence is less compelling and often contradictory. This paper provides a fresh look at monthly seasonality in 34 international equity markets over the period from January 1988 to December 2010. Unlike prior findings, we do not find a significant January effect except perhaps for 3 markets. Instead, we find significantly larger and positive anomalies across the vast majority of these markets for December and April. The results further suggest the presence of significant negative anomalies for June, August, and September across most global markets in the sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali F. Darrat & Bin Li & Benjamin Liu & Jen Je Su, 2011. "A Fresh Look at Seasonal Anomalies: An International Perspective," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 10(2), pages 93-116, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijb:journl:v:10:y:2011:i:2:p:93-116
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ijbe.fcu.edu.tw/assets/ijbe/past_issue/No.10-2/pdf/vol_10-2-1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://ijbe.fcu.edu.tw/assets/ijbe/past_issue/No.10-2/abstract/01.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harjeet S Bhabra & Upinder S Dhillon & Gabriel G Ramirez, 1999. "A November Effect? Revisiting the Tax-Loss-Selling Hypothesis," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 28(4), Winter.
    2. Lakonishok, Josef, et al, 1991. "Window Dressing by Pension Fund Managers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 227-231, May.
    3. Reinganum, Marc R., 1983. "The anomalous stock market behavior of small firms in January : Empirical tests for tax-loss selling effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 89-104, June.
    4. Doyle, John R. & Chen, Catherine Huirong, 2009. "The wandering weekday effect in major stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1388-1399, August.
    5. Jaffe, Jeffrey & Westerfield, Randolph, 1985. "Patterns in Japanese Common Stock Returns: Day of the Week and Turn of the Year Effects," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 261-272, June.
    6. James M. Poterba & Scott J. Weisbenner, 2001. "Capital Gains Tax Rules, Tax‐loss Trading, and Turn‐of‐the‐year Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 353-368, February.
    7. Officer, R. R., 1975. "Seasonality in Australian capital markets : Market efficiency and empirical issues," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 29-51, March.
    8. Berges, Angel & McConnell, John J & Schlarbaum, Gary G, 1984. "The Turn-of-the-Year in China," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 185-192, March.
    9. Lucy F. Ackert & George Athanassakos, 2000. "Institutional Investors, Analyst Following, and the January Anomaly," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3‐4), pages 469-485, April.
    10. Sun, Qian & Tong, Wilson H.S., 2010. "Risk and the January effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 965-974, May.
    11. Brown, Philip & Keim, Donald B. & Kleidon, Allan W. & Marsh, Terry A., 1983. "Stock return seasonalities and the tax-loss selling hypothesis : Analysis of the arguments and Australian evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 105-127, June.
    12. Agrawal, Anup & Tandon, Kishore, 1994. "Anomalies or illusions? Evidence from stock markets in eighteen countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 83-106, February.
    13. Andrew Worthington, 2010. "The decline of calendar seasonality in the Australian stock exchange, 1958–2005," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 421-433, July.
    14. Brauer, Greggory A & Chang, Eric C, 1990. "Return Seasonality in Stocks and Their Underlying Assets: Tax-Loss Selling versus Information Explanations," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 255-280.
    15. Schultz, Paul, 1985. "Personal Income Taxes and the January Effect: Small Firm Stock Returns before the War Revenue Act of 1917: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 333-343, March.
    16. Lucy F. Ackert & George Athanassakos, 2000. "Institutional Investors, Analyst Following, and the January Anomaly," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3&4), pages 469-485.
    17. Ariel, Robert A., 1987. "A monthly effect in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 161-174, March.
    18. Ritter, Jay R, 1988. " The Buying and Selling Behavior of Individual Investors at the Turn of the Year," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 701-717, July.
    19. Ritter, Jay R & Chopra, Navin, 1989. " Portfolio Rebalancing and the Turn-of-the-Year Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 149-166, March.
    20. Farley, John U. & Hinich, Melvin & McGuire, Timothy W., 1975. "Some comparisons of tests for a shift in the slopes of a multivariate linear time series model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 297-318, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lobão, Júlio, 2019. "Seasonal anomalies in the market for American depository receipts," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 24(48), pages 241-265.
    2. Seif, Mostafa & Docherty, Paul & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2017. "Seasonal anomalies in advanced emerging stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 169-181.
    3. Stefanescu, Răzvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2020. "Introducere în analiza anomaliilor calendaristice, Partea a doua [An Introduction to the Analysis of the Calendar Anomalies, Part 2]," MPRA Paper 97961, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Matthew C. Mitchell & Muhamad Iqbal Mohd Rafi & Sean Severe & Jeffrey A. Kappen, 2014. "Conventional Vs. Islamic Finance: The Impact Of Ramadan Upon Sharia-Compliant Markets," Organizations and Markets in Emerging Economies, Faculty of Economics, Vilnius University, vol. 5(1).
    5. Júlio Lobão & Ana C. Costa, 2023. "The Adaptive Dynamics of the Halloween Effect: Evidence from a 120-Year Sample from a Small European Market," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, January.
    6. Priit Sander & Risto Veiderpass, 2012. "Testing the Turn-of-the-Year Effect on Baltic Stock Exchanges," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 5(2), pages 145-154, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sun, Qian & Tong, Wilson H.S., 2010. "Risk and the January effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 965-974, May.
    2. Stefanescu, Răzvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2020. "Introducere în analiza anomaliilor calendaristice, Partea a doua [An Introduction to the Analysis of the Calendar Anomalies, Part 2]," MPRA Paper 97961, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Suliman Zakaria Suliman Abdalla, 2015. "An Investigation of the Month-of-The-Year Effect for the Sudanese Stock Market," Working Papers 924, Economic Research Forum, revised Jun 2015.
    4. Lynch, Andrew & Puckett, Andy & Yan, Xuemin (Sterling), 2014. "Institutions and the turn-of-the-year effect: Evidence from actual institutional trades," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 56-68.
    5. Easterday, Kathryn E. & Sen, Pradyot K., 2016. "Is the January effect rational? Insights from the accounting valuation model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 168-185.
    6. Grinblatt, Mark & Keloharju, Matti, 2004. "Tax-loss trading and wash sales," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 51-76, January.
    7. Danny Yeung, 2012. "The Impact of Institutional Ownership: A Study of the Australian Equity Market," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 11, July-Dece.
    8. Fatta Bahadur K.C. Ph. D. & Nayan Krishna Joshi, 2005. "The Nepalese Stock Market: Efficient and Calendar Anomalies," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 17, pages 40-85, April.
    9. Ortiz, Cristina & Sarto, José Luis & Vicente, Luis, 2012. "Portfolios in disguise? Window dressing in bond fund holdings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 418-427.
    10. Qiwei Chen, 2013. "Risk and seasonal effects: international evidence," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 299-311, November.
    11. De Moor, Lieven & Sercu, Piet, 2013. "The smallest firm effect: An international study," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 129-155.
    12. Chen, Zhongdong & Schmidt, Adam & Wang, Jin’ai, 2021. "Retail investor risk-seeking, attention, and the January effect," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    13. Mark Griffiths & Drew Winters, 1997. "On a Preferred Habitat for Liquidity at the Turn-of-the-Year: Evidence from the Term-Repo Market," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 12(1), pages 21-38, August.
    14. Lei Gao & Gerhard Kling, 2005. "Calendar Effects in Chinese Stock Market," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 6(1), pages 75-88, May.
    15. Mostafa Saidur Rahim Khan & Naheed Rabbani, 2019. "Market Conditions and Calendar Anomalies in Japanese Stock Returns," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 26(2), pages 187-209, June.
    16. Cristina Ortiz & Gloria Ramirez & Luis Vicente, 2010. "Quarterly return patterns in the Spanish stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(23), pages 1829-1838.
    17. Compton, William S. & Kunkel, Robert A., 1998. "A Tax-Free Exploitation of the Turn-of-the-Month Effect: C.R.E.F," Financial Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 11-23.
    18. Al-Khazali, Osamah M. & Koumanakos, Evangelos P. & Pyun, Chong Soo, 2008. "Calendar anomaly in the Greek stock market: Stochastic dominance analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 461-474, June.
    19. Shiu, Yih-Wen & Lee, Chun I. & Gleason, Kimberly C., 2014. "Institutional shareholdings and the January effects in Taiwan," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 49-66.
    20. Carlos Francisco Alves & Duarte André de Castro Reis, 2018. "Evidence of Idiosyncratic Seasonality in ETFs Performance," FEP Working Papers 603, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    international stock markets; market efficiency; seasonal anomaly; monthly effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijb:journl:v:10:y:2011:i:2:p:93-116. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Szu-Hsien Ho (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbfcutw.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.