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Modelling the Temporal Effect of Terrorism on Tourism in Kenya

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  • Brian K. Masinde
  • Steven Buigut
  • Joseph K. Mung¡¯atu

Abstract

Terrorist attacks have escalated over the recent years in Kenya, with adverse effects on the tourism industry. This study aims to establish if a long-run equilibrium exists between terrorism and tourism in Kenya between the years 1994 and 2014. To reinforce the robustness of the results, both Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) techniques are used to investigate the problem. A Granger causality test is also carried out to ascertain the direction of the relationship if one exists. The evidence from ARDL and the VECM testing procedure suggest that there is no long-run equilibrium between terrorism and tourism in Kenya. Terrorism does not Granger cause tourism and vice versa. However, short-run effect indicates that terrorism negatively and significantly affects tourism.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian K. Masinde & Steven Buigut & Joseph K. Mung¡¯atu, 2016. "Modelling the Temporal Effect of Terrorism on Tourism in Kenya," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(12), pages 10-20, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:8:y:2016:i:12:p:10-20
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    2. Mete Feridun, 2011. "Impact of terrorism on tourism in Turkey: empirical evidence from Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(24), pages 3349-3354.
    3. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    4. Koon Nam Lee, 2011. "Forecasting long-haul tourism demand for Hong Kong using error correction models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(5), pages 527-549.
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    Cited by:

    1. Seabra, Claudia & Reis, Pedro & Abrantes, José Luís, 2020. "The influence of terrorism in tourism arrivals: A longitudinal approach in a Mediterranean country," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Abdur Rauf & Hafiz Muhammad Abubakar Siddique & Qasim Saleem & Sidra, 2020. "Terrorism and International Tourism Nexus: Evidence from Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 387-393.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    terrorism; tourism; causal impact; ARDL; VECM; Kenya;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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