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Mapping the Future of Occupations: Transformative and Destructive Effects of New Digital Technologies on Jobs

Author

Listed:
  • Frank Fossen

    (University of Nevada, U.S.A.)

  • Alina Sorgner

    (John Cabot University, Italy)

Abstract

We investigate the impact of new digital technologies upon occupations. We argue that these impacts may be both destructive and transformative. The destructive effects of digitalization substitute human labor, while transformative effects of digitalization complement it. We distinguish between four broad groups of occupations that differ with regard to the impact of digitalization upon them. “Rising star” occupations are characterized by the low destructive and high transformative effects of digitalization. In contrast, “collapsing” occupations face a high risk of destructive effects. “Human terrain” occupations have low risks of both destructive and transformative digitalization, whereas “machine terrain” occupations are affected by both types. We analyze the differences between these four occupational groups in terms of the capabilities, which can be considered bottlenecks to computerization. The results help to identify which capabilities will be in demand and to what degree workers with different abilities can expect their occupations to be transformed in the digital era.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Fossen & Alina Sorgner, 2019. "Mapping the Future of Occupations: Transformative and Destructive Effects of New Digital Technologies on Jobs," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 10-18.
    • Handle: RePEc:hig:fsight:v:13:y:2019:i:2:p:10-18
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    File URL: https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/data/2019/07/18/1489966508/1-Fossen-Sorgner%2010-18.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lyudmila Zakharova & Lyudmila Shilova & Zahra Gadbedji & Liuchuan Zhu, 2020. "Organizational Cultures of Vocational Schools and Enterprises in Russia, China and Iran as Perceived by Students and Teachers," Voprosy obrazovaniya / Educational Studies Moscow, National Research University Higher School of Economics, issue 3, pages 234-254.
    2. Pablo Casas & José L. Torres, 2023. "Automation, automatic capital returns, and the functional income distribution," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 113-135, January.
    3. Julia Bock-Schappelwein & Andrea Egger, 2023. "Arbeitsmarkt 2030. Rückschlüsse für Österreich," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 71172, August.
    4. Casas, Pablo & Román, Concepción, 2023. "Early retired or automatized? Evidence from the survey of health, ageing and retirement in Europe," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    5. Ekaterina S. Dashkova & Natalia V. Dorokhova, 2023. "Regional labour market: A method for research," Journal of New Economy, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 24(3), pages 119-135, October.
    6. Fossen, Frank M. & Sorgner, Alina, 2021. "Digitalization of work and entry into entrepreneurship," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 548-563.
    7. Захарова Л. Н. & Шилова Л. Н. & Гадбеджи З. & Чжу Л., 2020. "Организационная Культура Индустриальных Колледжей И Предприятий России, Китая И Ирана В Оценках Студентов И Преподавателей," Вопросы образования // Educational Studies Moscow, National Research University Higher School of Economics, issue 3, pages 234-254.
    8. Fossen, Frank M. & McLemore, Trevor & Sorgner, Alina, 2024. "Artificial Intelligence and Entrepreneurship," IZA Discussion Papers 17055, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Fossen, Frank M. & Sorgner, Alina, 2022. "New digital technologies and heterogeneous wage and employment dynamics in the United States: Evidence from individual-level data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    10. Carbonero, Francesco & Scicchitano, Sergio, 2021. "Labour and technology at the time of Covid-19. Can artificial intelligence mitigate the need for proximity?," GLO Discussion Paper Series 765, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    11. Oğuz Başol & Hüseyin Sevgi & Esin Cumhur Yalçın, 2023. "The Effect of Digitalization on Youth Unemployment for EU Countries: Treat or Threat?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-15, July.
    12. Ionica Oncioiu & Emanuela Anton & Ana Maria Ifrim & Diana Andreea Mândricel, 2022. "The Influence of Social Networks on the Digital Recruitment of Human Resources: An Empirical Study in the Tourism Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-14, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    digital technologies; digitalization; artificial intelligence; occupations; worker skills;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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