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Adoption of Falsified Medical Products in a Low-Income Country: Empirical Evidence for Suriname

Author

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  • Philip Hans Franses

    (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, 3062PA Rotterdam, The Netherlands)

  • Madesta Lede

    (Department of Economics, Anton de Kom University, Leysweg 86, P.O. Box 9212, Paramaribo, Suriname)

Abstract

Based on detailed shipping figures for Suriname’s main harbour in Paramaribo, we estimate the total shipments (in kilograms) of original and falsified medical products for 1996–2008 across five product categories. Using various time series techniques and diffusion models, we document that total cumulative shipments of falsified products make about 40% of total shipments. We observe that there are apparently two distinct sets of consumers for original and for falsified products. Subsequently, we survey more than 300 citizens of Suriname from various demographics and ask questions about their potential adoption of falsified medicines. We find that income, age, and family size have no correlation, while the way people are insured does. Hence, the two sets of consumers can roughly be identified and clear-cut policy suggestions are presented. “ The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that up to 1% of medicines available in the developed world is likely to be counterfeited. This figure rises to 10% globally, although in some developing countries they estimate one third of medicines are counterfeit ” (Various internet sites consulted January 2010 and the best estimate we have).

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Hans Franses & Madesta Lede, 2017. "Adoption of Falsified Medical Products in a Low-Income Country: Empirical Evidence for Suriname," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-18, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:10:p:1732-:d:113310
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Government of India, 2017. "National Health Policy 2017," Working Papers id:11664, eSocialSciences.
    2. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Lede, M.M., 2010. "Diffusion of Original and Counterfeit Products in a Developing Country," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-08, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    3. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
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    5. Desiraju, Ramarao & Nair, Harikesh S. & Chintagunta, Pradeep, 2004. "Diffusion of New Pharmaceutical Drugs in Developing and Developed Nations," Research Papers 1950, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    6. Stefan Stremersch & Aurélie Lemmens, 2009. "Sales Growth of New Pharmaceuticals Across the Globe: The Role of Regulatory Regimes," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(4), pages 690-708, 07-08.
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