Research on the Coordinated Development Path of Rural Energy Supply and Demand Under the Context of Rural Revitalization Based on the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model

The rural revitalization strategy serves as a powerful engine, driving the coordinated development of urban and rural areas while propelling the modernization and increasing the quality of China’s construction. Based on the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM/Enduse model), this study constructed a Rural Areas in Guangdong model (RG-Enduse model) applicable to rural areas in Guangdong Province, China. The model includes 18 types of terminal technological equipment which are subdivided into 5 types of service needs for rural residents on the demand side. Through a supply-side analysis, this study explores the coordinated development paths of energy supply and demand in rural areas under the rural revitalization strategy across three distinct scenarios. The results show that energy consumption in the baseline (BL) scenario and the low-carbon (CM1) scenario will both peak in 2025 at 17.46 million tce and 14.35 million tce, respectively, and also show a continuous downward trend in the green low-carbon (CM2) scenario, falling to 9.77 million tce by 2060. Electricity will be the dominant energy resource in the carbon neutral path to 2060, with CM2 and CM2, accounting for 78.78% and 80.61% of green electricity consumption, respectively. In addition, the utilization of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) for thermal power will be indispensable to ensure the stability of the green power supply.